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  1. #501
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Yup - put $10k on number 20 and hope like hell that number 20 comes out of 37 numbers! I work that out though at more like 2.6%?
    Don't most casino's work with zero and double zero now?(just being picky)

  2. #502
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    Quote Originally Posted by steveb View Post
    Don't most casino's work with zero and double zero now?(just being picky)
    Yes they do but there's always Blackjack where a skilled player can get the house advantage well below the level I suggested.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #503
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    Quote Originally Posted by steveb View Post
    Don't most casino's work with zero and double zero now?(just being picky)
    Note that there's a blank on the wheel which means the house takes EVERYTHING?

  4. #504
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Note that there's a blank on the wheel which means the house takes EVERYTHING?
    Yeah there is as "zero" the house takes everything. But that only occurs once every 37 spins. So 1/37 is 2.7% which is the house advantage. Which to be fair is bugger all. Lotto etc take about 35% off the punters and the TAB about 80-85%. With roulette and blackjack you can pretty much walk out almost evens every times. Blackjack you can win because the house has pre-determined levels where they need to stay and cannot deviate from those. But you need a very sharp mind and card counting ability to win consistently long term and I do not have those.

  5. #505
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Yes they do but there's always Blackjack where a skilled player can get the house advantage well below the level I suggested.
    Depends on the specific rules and how many decks of cards they use, playing a perfect game brings house edge down to about 0.5%. Best of a bad bunch.

  6. #506
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    Yeah there is as "zero" the house takes everything. But that only occurs once every 37 spins. So 1/37 is 2.7% which is the house advantage. Which to be fair is bugger all. Lotto etc take about 35% off the punters and the TAB about 80-85%. With roulette and blackjack you can pretty much walk out almost evens every times. Blackjack you can win because the house has pre-determined levels where they need to stay and cannot deviate from those. But you need a very sharp mind and card counting ability to win consistently long term and I do not have those.
    Odds for the House is different with the kind of odds Beagle was talking about for the punter?

    Put a number on a roulette wheel and your odds of winning is 2.7%?

  7. #507
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    Yeah there is as "zero" the house takes everything. But that only occurs once every 37 spins. So 1/37 is 2.7% which is the house advantage. Which to be fair is bugger all. Lotto etc take about 35% off the punters and the TAB about 80-85%. With roulette and blackjack you can pretty much walk out almost evens every times. Blackjack you can win because the house has pre-determined levels where they need to stay and cannot deviate from those. But you need a very sharp mind and card counting ability to win consistently long term and I do not have those.
    Never got into card counting but I understand any decent casino will spot the betting pattern a mile away these days.

  8. #508
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Odds for the House is different with the kind of odds Beagle was talking about for the punter?

    Put a number on a roulette wheel and your odds of winning is 2.7%?
    Yes it is 2.7% but the payoff is 36x your investment. So you put $1 on say 18 and it comes up 18, the casino gives you $36!

  9. #509
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    Yes it is 2.7% but the payoff is 36x your investment. So you put $1 on say 18 and it comes up 18, the casino gives you $36!
    Should be giving you $37 if it's fair odds.

  10. #510
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Should be giving you $37 if it's fair odds.

    Then how would the Casino pay for its cost of doing business ? The point of this analogy is that everything is above board and fully transparent when speculating at some venue's and certainly not at others ! Anyway...like all good train wrecks this one will be interesting to watch. I suspect that in the medium term if STU remains a stand alone company anyone putting any credibility on their ability to accurately forecast future profits is playing their own version of roulette as are FBU shareholders in hoping future synergies would be realized from any successful takeover and the transaction would be eps accretive.
    Last edited by Beagle; 16-10-2018 at 09:36 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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