IS TRADING GETTING HARDER ?

[whiteheron]

My personal observation is that trading has been getting harder over the last few weeks
I trade virtually every day so have have quite a few trades to base my comment on

Good trades seem to be harder to ferret out than they previously were ; they are still there but harder to find
I have only managed one really good trade in the last month , being QGC where I doubled my money , but other than that the pickings have in general been pretty slim with some trades struggling to break even

I would like to hear from other frequent traders on how they have been finding the going lately
Are we all in the same boat or is it just me ?

[Sky Tower]

Yes.

[KJ]

I have only been trading since last Dec but I have not noticed any change in that time.I only do about 3 to 4 trades a mth and only NZ stocks.Seems to be enough opportunities coming along.

[Studson]

Well like you WH I am finding it harder to make cash. I am pretty new to the game - still learning heaps but feel I have a reasonable handle on things. I dont make heaps cause I dont put heaps 'on the line' but I was doing much better toward the end of last year compared with this year. I know CTL and CUEVA have been doing quite well and got into these while FA and TA looked OK to me and news for both has been more positive than negative, however they have both since experienced SP declines. I look to hold for at most 3 months when buying in. Its an unfortunate relief that I'm not the only one feeling like this!!. Good luck mate!. Cheers.

[Lawso]

Does the above mean that ASX and NZX are on the whole fully priced and that bargains or even good value stocks are few and far between? That's certainly my feeling at the moment.

[whiteheron]

Lawso

I trade almost solely in Aussie resource stocks and yes , it is my opinion that bargains (which is what I endeavour to track down ) are getting few and far between , or certainly more difficult to find

My opinion is that both the ASX and NZX shares are in general getting very close to fully priced and that very careful stock selection is now essential
I believe that careless stock selection now poses real downsides and that many unwary and maverick type investors are likely to get their fingers burned in the next year or three

I dont see a 1987 type situation , but I do see a real need for caution
There are still good stocks to be had but the upsides are not so plentiful

This is my opinion only --- as always time will tell

[steve fleming]

guys,

in my day day job i work closely with the banks and their financially distressed clients and in the restructuring of these companies. you would be amazed over the last few months the number of listed companies that the Banks are having real concerns with.

Of course none of this is disclosed to the market until its too late for investors - ie sons of gawalia, HWE IOn etc etc....which says alot about the ASX disclosure requirements....anyway...

I'm sure most punters out there would be dumbfounded to know of the amount of companies that are actively discussed on these boards that are very close to joining the likes of IOn,HWE etc.

I noticed even Dimebag appears to have taken a stake in one that , as we speak, the directors are frantically trying to refinance to avoid the banks calling it a day on this company....having had a close look at this particular company's management accounts for jan and feb i would hold little hope of any short term recovery......of course none of this is ever disclosed to the market......

I totally agree with whiteheron that stock selection needs to be of the utmost quality otherwise it has the potential to get very messy.

[whiteheron]

steve f

Wow , your posting is one of the most telling market announcements that I have read in some time

It just goes to show what happens , or more accurately doesnt happen with disclosure requirements and market announcements

To me this is a signal to stick to companies with a sound background / reputable management / strong financial position etc and to steer clear of those that look a bit suspect even if you think there is a quick profit to be made , you may just get caught holding the parcel when the music stops

Many thanks for the information Steve ; a great bit of "insider " information which shows the necessity for being ever vigilant and doing all you can to avoid becoming part of a disaster

[Studson]

Great topic for discussion and some good opinions coming forth. Cheers to all.

[Stock Man]

quote:Originally posted by whiteheron

My personal observation is that trading has been getting harder over the last few weeks
I trade virtually every day so have have quite a few trades to base my comment on

Good trades seem to be harder to ferret out than they previously were ; they are still there but harder to find
I have only managed one really good trade in the last month , being QGC where I doubled my money , but other than that the pickings have in general been pretty slim with some trades struggling to break even

I would like to hear from other frequent traders on how they have been finding the going lately
Are we all in the same boat or is it just me ?

Whiteheron - It really depends on your trading style, and in this case - your timeframe. I have no need to trade as frequently as you, so can not really comment on the daytrades that you refer to.

When you refer to qgc you obviously trade the asx market. The xao (all ords) is certainly in a bull phase - who knows when it will end. Over the last year the xao has appreciated by approx 24% - probably not rampant speculation, but a reasonable increase none the less.

We have to remember that all trends end. We can not mistake good trading for a bull market. Markets constantly change.

Soooooo - I may not be in the same boat as you - however, lately the "going has been excellent", for my style and timeframe.

Cheers