Early Warning: trade opportunities

[Packersoldkidney]

Apologies to White Heron who I promised a few days ago that I'd start this thread, but have been busy inbetween and didn't get round to it until now.

Anyone got any systems that they use to alert them to a potential trade? What about some educative stories of where you've got some information that has led you to buy into a company that has subsequently become a dollar bonanza?

There are various off-the-shelf systems that will screen for particular characteristics in stocks - one of them being price rises. You can also get similar services of brokers, that is if you pay them well enough. Anyone use these services to gather information about potential trades? Or has information from other sources proved more valuable?

[whiteheron]

Thanks Packers---------

I think that this thread could benefit us all , especially the traders amongst us who need good reliable and EARLY information on matters that are on the move

To kick things off the following are the sources that I use the most to gather information , but in no particular order of importance

ShareTrader , of course
Not so much for leads on companies ( although I do get the odd one ) but to correspond with other folk who are attempting to achieve similar things to myself

Sky Business Report

ASB Securities Morning Brief

Google Alerts eg for company name

ASX and NZX Websites
ASX and NZX Announcements

Company websites
Now widespread and a really good source of info in many cases

Company Annual and Interim Accounts

Shares magazine , one of the best publications , but the news on individual companies is too late as is the case with all newspapers and publications

The Internet
A huge source of information if you persevere and go looking for it
eg Broker Reports , articles on a multitude of subjects

World News
I find it necessary to keep up with world matters in general

Fat Prophets Mining ( subscription service )

Various free e-mail reports eg Mining News.net

ASB Securities Online services
E*Trade Online Services

That is pretty much what I can think of at the moment

I do not use stock filter systems at present and would like to hear from others who do , both good and bad points

[whiteheron]

Well Packers---------

It looks as if nobody is prepared to divulge to us their dearly beloved early warnings systems , maybe they treat them as their own private "classified " information and hence not to be divulged to others
Or maybe they just bungle along without any direction or plan , but I doubt it

I had hopes that this would be a thread that would be of mutual benefit to many of us
Heres hoping that it can get some legs and gather some interest

[Phaedrus]

If you have a system based on TA, MetaStock (or any other decent charting program) can be programmed to scan markets for anything you can specify. Examples would be Moving average crossover, Oscillator buy signal, a specific candlestick pattern, Directional Movement crossover, a larger than usual price rise, unusually high volume etc etc. It is easy to combine any number of indicators if you want multiple conditions to be met. You can have it calculating daily turnover and filtering out illiquid stocks. Explorations can be as simple or as complex as you like. (Some of mine have over 200 lines of code!) Pretty much the only thing that you can't scan for is trendline breaks. Your scan can be set up to run daily on whatever market you choose to follow. Qualifying stocks can be printed out in a list, plotted on a chart, visually flagged with a pop-up window, or trigger an appropriate (or inappropriate!) sound file.
If you want to trade in a big market such as the USA with over 10,000 stocks, some sort of screening utility is absolutely essential. Most brokers provide something on-line. There are many technical and fundamental screeners available ranging in quality from lousy to excellent.
Short-term traders would be looking for things like Stochastic oscillator crossovers. Medium-term traders would be looking for slower oscillator buy signals and moving average crossovers and candlestick patterns such as a Doji Morning Star. Long-term traders would be looking for Directional Movement Indicator buy signals, long-term moving average crossovers, and weekly candlestick patterns. The basic aim of stock screening is to ensure that no stocks that are of potential interest slip under the radar.
The approach is this :-
(1) Define your aims (Decide on your preferred trading frequency)
(2) Select the most appropriate indicators for your chosen timeframe.
(3) Perfect your system by backtesting and paper trading.
(4) Screen the market (hourly, daily, weekly or monthly) for any buy signals triggered.
All this is a bit redundant in a very small market like NZ. You know all the stocks and probably keep a "watchlist" of shortlisted candidates of interest. The system automatically updates the charts every day, so it only takes a very short time to sequentially flick through all the charts in your watchlist. Less than 2 seconds per stock.

[Packersoldkidney]

Bingo. There are a number of ShareTraders who use MetaStock and swear by it. Personally I don't like swearing, as it gives me the ****s.

[Winston001]

As always Phaedrus, it is a pleasure and an education to read your posts. I'm not sure quite what to do. I spend my day working and don't feel as though I have time to follow trends and quick movements.

Indeed I wonder how so many people here have the time to do the research necessary.

Be that as it may, since joining I have set up my portfolio in Yahoo, and access it 3 or 4 times a day. So I suppose I really can make some time available.

Anyway, the NZ market may be small but there are well over 100 stocks. That is a huge number to follow daily. Picking watch stocks means that others must be overlooked. How do you pick up on those unexpected movements?

[port hills]

I'm in Christchurch and would be keen to have a look at Metastock if any of you locals running it would have a small amount of time to show it off.

Please! []

[TerryA]

PH,

Where else would you be ?

You can get a 30 day trial version of Metastock from www.infoscan.co.nz which is what I did to see how it would fit into my way of doing things.

I now have the full version, V9.0, and an 18 month subsccription for NZX End of Day data, including the NZX history as part of the package. Total cost was $1400.63 including GST.

The programme is fairly easy to use once you come to grips with the basics. Whether it will save/make me money remains to be seen but I have already added three stocks to my "Stop Loss" watch list.

Best wishes,

TerryA
(ex Mt Pleasant)

[port hills]

quote:Originally posted by TerryA

PH,

Where else would you be ?

You can get a 30 day trial version of Metastock from www.infoscan.co.nz which is what I did to see how it would fit into my way of doing things.

I now have the full version, V9.0, and an 18 month subsccription for NZX End of Day data, including the NZX history as part of the package. Total cost was $1400.63 including GST.

The programme is fairly easy to use once you come to grips with the basics. Whether it will save/make me money remains to be seen but I have already added three stocks to my "Stop Loss" watch list.

Best wishes,

TerryA
(ex Mt Pleasant)

Thanks heaps TerryA

[KJ]

As a person who has only been trading for a few mths I decided to wait with interest to see what more experienced traders had to say-unfortunately there has been very little response.

What is my system for picking stocks early?

Firstly,my system-

I look to trade 3 or 4 times per mth.I only hold stocks that I hold in my LT portfolio.Why? Well these are stocks that I am happy with on a FA basis-with good fundamentals and in strong uptrends (IMO).
I know them well and there are about 20 (NZX)that interest me.

I follow these stocks closely and watch them for any sign of weakness for no logical reason.I then follow some simple TA techniques-MA crossovers,Bollinger bands,RSI,Symmetrical triangles.

I keep it simple and am looking for a quick 10%.It may be beginners luck but is working well so far-I have completed 10 trades for a 90% gain on a PA basis.Average trade is 4.3 wks.

As a person new to trading I would be interested in constructive criticism-advice.I do not see the need for any computer software to do this as I follow these stocks closely.