AUD.USD

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quote:From Trade10 on the Andrews Pitchfork


In constructing the study, starting points are chosen. The first is a major peak or trough on the left side of the chart display. The second and third starting points are chosen to be a major peak and a major trough to the right of the first point. After all starting points have been decided, draw a trendline from the first point (the most left) so that it passes directly between the right most points. This line is called the handle of the pitchfork

Wheres your 'starting point' on your Andrews Pitchforks arco?

I would have thought the starting point would have been at the low of approx 0.7000 on Mar 30th. Using that I get a ludicrously steep handle , but I cant see where yours starts from on the pics you show.

I suppose its the 28th Dec 2005 low?

[arco]

Hi Peat

27/12/05, 11/5/06, 28/6/06 (Blue)

31/1/06, 29/3/06, 11/5/06 (Red)

regards - arco

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got back in last nite at 7579 stop 7558
had this trade emulated in my fxgame and it got stopped out last night but that didnt happen in my live system [8D][8D][8D]

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Australian 3Q CPI +0.9% On Qtr Vs +0.7% Consensus
Australian 3Q CPI +3.9% On Yr Vs +3.7% Consensus

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despite a number of merchant banks warnings to sell, the 'roo unit keeps goin up
.7660 = +81
stop now @ .7631

and closed out for the weekend at .7692

[arco]

Hello All

Not quite back into the swing of things here in NZ after being away in Aus for over 5 months......but the mountain of mail is diminishing, and I hope to be back to normal by Monday.

The Aussie trade first mentioned on 5th Oct (see chart) is still going well (not far off the predicted 7813), but will have to see what transpires re the rate hike.

regards - arco in NZ



Australian Dollar Rises to 6-Month High Before Retail Sales

By Chris Young

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar rose to its highest in almost six months on speculation a government report today will show retail sales climbed a fourth month, reinforcing the case for the central bank to raise interest rates next week.

Australia's dollar has increased 4 percent in the past month to within 0.5 percent of its high this year as investors have ratcheted up bets the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise its key interest rate when it meets next week. Retail sales data today may indicate two rate increases this year haven't curbed spending and moderated inflation pressures.

``A strong retail sales report means there's a good chance the Australian dollar will challenge its 2006 highs,'' said Nick Bennenbroek, vice president of foreign-exchange research at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York. ``Fundamentals favor the Australian dollar.''

The currency was at 77.49 U.S. cents as of 8:25 a.m. in Sydney from 77.45 cents in late Asia yesterday. It earlier reached 77.67, the strongest since hitting a 10-month high of 77.93 cents on May 12.

The central bank raised the overnight cash rate target a quarter percentage point in both May and August to slow inflation, taking the benchmark to a 5 1/2-year high of 6 percent. All 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News last week expect the Reserve Bank will raise rates again on Nov. 8.

Data Releases

Retail sales may rise 0.5 percent after climbing 0.3 percent in August, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. A report yesterday showing building approvals three times stronger than forecast by economists bolstered the Australian dollar.

A separate government report today will probably show Australia's September trade deficit was little changed at A$200 million in September from a six-month low of A$208 million in August. The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases both reports at 11:30 a.m. in Sydney.

Gains against the U.S. dollar have accelerated as that currency has weakened on speculation a slowing U.S. economy will force the Federal Reserve to cut its key 5.25 percent interest early rate next year. An industry report showed U.S. manufacturing growth unexpectedly slipped last month.

[arco]

Targeting 8000 perhaps



regards -arco

[roddy]

Hi Arco
Hoping you had a good Xmas
your above chart isnt displaying!
cheers roddy

[arco]

Thanks Roddy

Click here to view..............

http://www.traderji.com/attachments/...-aud.usd-d.gif

regards - arco

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@.7916 now it seems to have reasserted itself as bullish with this break out imo.
i had a long form 7869 when it dipped down on the 20th.
Stop was originally 7635 but now raised to break even. I dont think the Aud really swallowed 80 sufficiently last time so this time will it nail it convincingly?