AUD.USD

[arco]

Maybe this will confirm the BF completion in the PRZ

Wednesday, October 10th, 2007 (9:30 p.m. New York Time)
Australian Employment Change

Expected to come out at 20,000 versus 32,000 last month.

From DailyFX.
Australia – Upcoming event risk in Australia will be dominated by the Employment Change report due Thursday, while earlier second-tier data likewise shows potential to force short-term volatility, including the NAB Business Confidence and Westpac Consumer Confidence figures. Meanwhile, Home Loans will draw close attention given a background of financial and lending market duress. Forecasts show expectations for strong results across the board, but markets will be keeping an eye on consensus estimates of a 20.0k Employment Change through the month of September. As Currency Analyst David Rodriguez pointed out recently, “To put this into grossly oversimplified perspective, a gain in 20,000 jobs would represent the equivalent of a +284,000 jobs result for the US Nonfarm Payrolls report.” Thus, it is very clear how domestic demand in Australia has kept expansion so resilient in the face of slowing global economic growth trends.

............................All we need is a big black candle.

http://www.fxwords.com/e/employment-...australia.html

[arco]

PF chart

Spot the Butterfly - PRZ

[arco]

DATA SNAP: Australian Sep Unemployment Rate 4.2%

Thu, Oct 11 2007, 01:33 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu

DATA SNAP: Australian Sep Unemployment Rate 4.2%

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Australia's unemployment rate fell to a lower-than-expected seasonally adjusted 4.2% in September from 4.3% in August. The number of employed rose 13,000, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Thursday.

Economists on average had expected an unemployment rate of 4.3% in September, with the number of employed up 20,000.

The bureau said its seasonally adjusted workforce participation rate, or the proportion of working-age persons at work or actively seeking work, fell to 65.0% in September from 65.1% in August.

The bureau's trend estimate for unemployment, which further smoothes the seasonally adjusted data, was 4.2% in September, steady with August.

The total number of people employed was 10.53 million in September in seasonally adjusted terms, compared with 10.51 million in August.

The number of people in full-time work fell 17,200 to 7.52 million in September, from 7.54 million in August, while the number of people in part-time work rose 30,100 to 3.01 million from 2.98 million.

[dumbass]

currently in 5th wave with a target around 9130 - 9150

also prz on butterfly at same point

[arco]

Hi DB/All

The old red BF is still appears to be winging its way north,
therefore 9200+ is not out of the question IMO.

arco

[dumbass]

looking to go long again on this crab

break of 94 possibly for target 9520 then 96+

[peat]

I wrote this post about 7 hours ago - 2:30 PMish and the chart will probably support that. I thought I posted it then but it seems not, so I will just retype for the sake of posterity ;+)

Re NZD I've had a bit of difficulty seeing a long there , and had been shorting it overnite with some success , but now looking at the OZZIe has opened my eyes to how I can agree with you both Arco and DA re so I neutralised my short positions and have started laying in small longs on both AUD and NZD . Although they are similar it seems to me the Ozzie pattern was more correctly played out.


And now (back in real time ) its looking good the limit buy order was filled right at the .78 retracement and average position is +30 for oz +15 for NZ


Interestingly Max is against us tonite saying that kiwi and oz will find resistance at around their current levels i.e .76 and .89 and then head substantially south.
Time will tell as it always does.

Real account trading is getting closer. I verified my PayPal account and should now be allowed to transfer to Oanda from there. Have done so - lets see if it doesnt get rejected this time.

[arco]

Peat

I think the technical position on Aussie and Kiwi is quite complex
presently, so anything is possible. If AUD 9140 was achievable it
would present another potentially profitable Gartley situation.

Looking at Ichi...............
Aussie is supported by the thick Kumo which could add some lift in
the short/medium term. However, there is always a possibility the
action may eventually venture part way into the cloud to complete
a corrective sequence.

On the 4 hour there seems to be 3 waves down completing just
below 2618 (although this is not obvious on the daily).

Chikou has tentatively entered the plot but no cross yet on Kijun/Tenkan,
although the red Kijun line could act as resistance

[dumbass]

my ew suggest low risk long as wave 2 completes critical level to set stop 8754

[peat]

just for the record my Oz longs closed themselves this morning as I had failed to reset the default 100 take profit setting. I need to be more ambitious!! still it was a nice trade getting the biggest buy in at only 9 pips above the low.


and btw.... I am now able to trade via fxtrade. ooh the nerves will start to fire a bit now !
And although I think the kiwi/oz long scenario still has some go I wont be entering the kiwi long in real a/c as the best risk/reward ratio has passed and I must be extra disciplined now