AUD.USD

[arco]

Morning Slam

O/n spike to 7746 which is pretty close the the
Gann resistance I mentioned of 7751.

Major Gann resistance above that at 7812.

Heres a few EW Wave 4 guidelines.
(If we are in wave 4?)

Wave 4 is rarely a Zigzag based correction.
It is common for both Waves 4 & 2 to have approximately the same price movement.
Wave 4 will most often retrace more than 20% of Wave 3, including internal points.
Wave 4 will very often retrace about 38.2% of Wave 3.
Wave 4 does not often retrace Wave 3 by more than 50%.
Wave 4 will often retrace into the price territory of previous Wave 4 of Wave 1.
Wave 4 will most often retrace to the end of the previous Wave 4 of one lesser degree.

EW is an complex matter....you only have to
see the e-wavers disagreeing on counts to
know its difficult.

arco

[slam]

Hi arco

The rule that I was working around for my theory is that wave 4 shouldn't cross wave 1 which it was close to doing on several charts.
So a lift higher would negate the count.

Cheers
slam

[peat]

well all I know is it cost me a 100 mini pips... [B)]
I'd read some report (blackswantrading) correlating the AUD with the Dow Jones transportation index which it reckoned was about to collapse. Clearly the commodity prices increase is more overriding factor
In classic Australian parlance "No worries, mate"

[arco]

Slam

Looking again perhaps we are on leg X (3 waves),
which can theoretically go no higher than 'B'
of the Zig Zag. If fact it may even be forming
into a double ZZ if we get a reversal of X.

I tend to use EW minimally so I could be wrong.
I will look again later.

[slam]

arco

Maybe more plausible as the channel has been broken and the 5 under threat
I will have to get out my book for the variations on dbl zz’s though

cheers
slam

[slam]

still have a few pips to go on a daily line chart though before 5 is invalid

Edit: need a close above .7744

[arco]

Look no further.....

Double and Triple ZigZag Rules:

Double (DZ) and Triple (TZ) Zigzags are similar to Zigzags, and are typically two or three Zigzag patterns strung together with a joining Wave called an x Wave, and are corrective in nature. Doubles are not common, and Triples are rare. Zigzags, Double Zigzags and Triple Zigzags are also known as Zigzag family patterns, or 'Sharp' patterns. Double Zigzags are labeled w-x-y, while Triple Zigzags are labeled w-x-y-xx-z. Both these patterns are included in the list of rules and guidelines below. Only a Double Zigzag is illustrated below.

Wave W must be a Zigzag.
Wave C of W cannot be a failure.
Wave X can be any corrective pattern except an ET.
Wave X must be smaller than Wave W by price.
Wave X must retrace at least 20% of W by price.
The gross price movement of Wave X must be less then 3 times the price movement of Wave W.
Wave X must be no more than 5 times Wave W by time.
Wave Y must be a Zigzag
Wave Y must be greater than or equal to Wave X by price.
Back to back and double failures are not allowed.
Wave Y must be greater than 90% of Wave W by price, and Wave Y must be less than 5 times Wave W by price.
Wave Y must be no more than a factor of 5 times either Wave X or W in price or time.
Wave C of Y cannot be a failure.
Wave XX can be any corrective pattern except an ET.
Wave XX must be smaller than Wave Y by price.
Wave XX must retrace at least 20% of Y.
The gross price movement of Wave XX must be less than 3 times the gross movement of Wave W.
Wave Z must be a Zigzag
Wave Z must be greater than or equal to Wave XX by price.
Wave Z must be less than 5 times Wave Y by price, and must also be less than 5 times Wave W by price.
Wave Z must be no more than a 5 times either Waves XX, Y, X or W in both price and time.
Double and Triple ZigZag Guidelines:
The largest Wave in Wave W is usually less than Wave W by price.
Wave X is usually a Zigzag family pattern.
Wave X is usually less than 70% of Wave W by price.
Wave X will usually retrace at least 30% of Wave W.
Wave X is most likely to be a 38.2% retracement of Wave W.
Wave X is next most likely to be a 50% retracement of Wave W.
Wave X is next most likely to be a 61.8% retracement of Wave W.
The largest Wave in Wave X is usually less than 140% of Wave W by price.
The time taken by Wave X is usually between 61.8% and 161.8% of Wave 1.
Wave Y is next most likely to be equal to 61.8% or 161.8% of W by price.
Expect the time taken by Wave Y to be between 61.8% of Wave W and 161.8% of shortest of Wave W and X.
Wave XX is usually a Zigzag family pattern.
Wave XX is usually less than 70% of Wave Y by price.
Wave XX will usually retrace at least 30% of Wave Y.
Wave XX is most likely to be a 38.2% retracement of Wave Y.
Wave XX is next most likely to be a 50% retracement of Wave Y.
Wave XX is next most likely to be a 61.8% retracement of Wave Y.
The largest Wave within Wave XX is usually less than 140% of Wave Y by price.
Wave Z is most likely to be about equal to Wave Y by price.
Wave Z is next most likely to be about equal to 61.8% or 161.8% of Wave Y.
The largest Wave in Wave Z is usually less than Wave Y by price.

[slam]

Cheers arco (I think

[arco]

As someone once said.......quote

EW theorists engage in academic masturbation with their insistence in being able to label anything and everything. It's why so many folks don't like EW. Well, EW .....don't always work and they're not always obvious. You DON'T have to trade them everyday. Find the high probability ones and trade them. And the high probability ones are found by thinking a bit outside the box

[Xerof]

IMVuninformedO, and without digging too deeply, there seem to be Bearish Gartleys apparent on 4 and 8 hourly and daily charts? Possible reversal area may coincide with your aforementioned Major Gann resistance at 7812 Arco (BTW, I didn't realise Gann was in the military)

Then again, might just be one of those rampant trouser snakes rearing its ugly head - somehow don't think so though

Xerof