Listed Property Trusts

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Looking for a 1.10 on ARG ..and should show some up side in about 3 to 5 years

One would think a long term (decades) dollar cost averaging & dividend reinvestment plan would work quite well for investing in this sector. Though as one approached the end of their investment plan (maybe diversifying into capital protected assets for retirement, or other intended use for funds) one would want to try and pick the top of the cycle to exit (easier said than done, but seems somewhat more predictable for commercial property sector than others)

[Waltzing]

The peak came and went in a matter of 6 short months...

and really while one knew this was happening in theory it was hard to except as a certainty.

MR B did just that.

5 years till the next big super cycle if they get inflation back under control... IF!

That means a big change to energy supply globally.

[Beagle]

Some of these companies are trading at huge discounts to NTA though and we've seen 50 bps come off long term bond rates and no corresponding bounce back in the share prices. Might engage my sniffer and have a good dig in this sector in next couple of weeks. Been accumulating ARG as you know. Pretty sure there might be another one worth accumulating too while its cheap.

[Waltzing]

"50 bps come off long term bond rates and no corresponding bounce back in the share prices"

YES and in the US markets well under 3.

Could go on for who knows how long.

The trigger is more likely to come some time in the future in the US markets giving a direction for other markets such as NZ.

Actually just rechecked the chart and in Sep/Oct 2019 up at 1.48 ish....

still back in 16 - to late 18 sitting in the 1.10's.

Their performance has increased since then and moving to more commercial.

[BlackPeter]

"50 bps come off long term bond rates and no corresponding bounce back in the share prices"

YES and in the US markets well under 3.

Could go on for who knows how long.

The trigger is more likely to come some time in the future in the US markets giving a direction for other markets such as NZ.

Actually just rechecked the chart and in Sep/Oct 2019 up at 1.48 ish....

still back in 16 - to late 18 sitting in the 1.10's.

Their performance has increased since then and moving to more commercial.

True, however - don't forget: The performance you measure is backward looking, while the market is forward looking.

Mr. Market still might expect a handful of potholes in the road before property go up again (like interest rates rising, industry and customer needs changing, real estate market tanking, EQ-ratings of existing building stock being downgraded). Is he right? I don't know, though they say he always is ...

[Waltzing]

There is a very good reason MR B is buying PIE ARG..

Looks like the big boys KPG , GMT have the balance sheets to go forward with projects but the smaller building companies of 2 share holders are in the for a hard time.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/128...ated-this-year

[Rawz]

Some of these companies are trading at huge discounts to NTA though and we've seen 50 bps come off long term bond rates and no corresponding bounce back in the share prices. Might engage my sniffer and have a good dig in this sector in next couple of weeks. Been accumulating ARG as you know. Pretty sure there might be another one worth accumulating too while its cheap.

Who is the other one?? Surely.. no it couldn’t be.. KPG? Na can’t be

[Beagle]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6PmtQ2rylE Notice how Beagle's don't bark while they're busy digging

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Weekly update:

Our basket of property stocks was up 2% this week, but still underperformed the NZX50 by 120 basis points (NZX50 was up 3.2% for the week)

Looking at the discount to NTA, the average discount may have bottomed out last week, although it’s too early to tell (one week does not make a trend after all). Will elaborate more in a following post.

45D52FE1-A2E9-41DA-9CC9-2580416BFCC9.jpg

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Discount to NTA trend:

9A401A15-D39E-4CC4-8685-346AE9DCA30B.jpg