BASE METALS OUTLOOK --- WHAT TO BELIEVE

[whiteheron]

I endeavour to keep in touch with matters that are likely to effect future prices for base metals
eg likely economic direction , China , India , supply , demand , stock levels , stock trends etc etc

There is a lot of information available , much is written on such matters and there is a significant divergance of opinion expressed by different commentators
Headline reports are often dramatic , such as " copper price plumets " when it has just come off a 16 year high by say 1%
If one was unaware of the true situation one would be led to believe that the bottom was about to drop out of the market
Often the next days headline is " copper posts new high "

I make my own mind up after taking a broad view of the position after discarding what I consider does not stack up

What I rely on as much as anything else are the KITCO charts of metal prices and stock levels
These give a factual and easily understood graphic presentation of actual historical price and stock levels ( with the exception of unreported stocks )and in my opinion are a most important tool in assessing the likely future price trends , not in minute detail but in general terms

I would like to hear from others if they feel they have any particularly reliable information that they use or access in addition to what I have covered

Fred Thanks for that. Can your provide a link to KItco or do I have to Google it?

Heron Resources on the ASX forum. Interested??[]

[Halebop]

http://www.kitco.com/

...then click on the Chart and Data tab. Not so great if you want to trade in minutiae but they have a useful range of historical charts.

[Packersoldkidney]

Heron: I would be looking to get a technical point of view from someone expert in the area on the base metal/s you want an opinion on.

A chartist really is the way to go, and balances up the fundamental views you will find in profuse variety in many articles. You could ask Arco or Xerof from this site to post you a chart or two, that is if they are feeling kindly that day and if they have access to the requisite data.

Thanks Chasps.

[whiteheron]

Longtack and Packers---------

Heron got away on me I am afraid , I was too slow and I am too miserable to buy at the higher price --- I like to feel that there is plenty of upside when I buy

Writers taking ( presumably ) fundamental views on metals have come up with many and varied conclusions and I have formed my own opinion taking into account all that I have read that seems well reasoned
One must always be aware that what is expounded by various writers can be intentionally biased to promote their interests
I like to take a view based on a combination of fundamentals backed up by technicals
The Kitco price and stock level charts are , I think , pretty self explanatory --- certainly they tell me what I need to know to back up my conclusions from studying the fundamentals

As a matter of interest I like the outlook for silver , copper , nickel , and zinc
I am a bit unsure about gold so I am looking at selling purely gold shares and replacing them with companies that produce at least one other metal in addition to gold
This , I believe , will reduce risk

What do you think about this ?

[skinny]

Whiteheron, I would add lead to the list. It is the least hyped base metal yet its long-term fundamentals are probably the strongest (according to Jimmy Rogers & the not so well known skinny!) I like kitco and metalprices.com for the charts but don't trust most of their editorials -- too many loopy economics articles of the sort you see posted on the ASX channel and too many dodgy reccomendations. For the macro and forecasting side I prefer outfits like Australia's ABARE and for an industry outlook I try and keep up with the information put out by the relevant industry bodies. Some links below in case you have not come across them in your research.

http://www.abare.gov.au/australianco...ies/index.html
http://www.ilzsg.org/statistics.asp
http://www.alabc.org/
http://www.ilzro.org/home.htm

p.s I agree with you about gold. Gold has about the worst fundamentals in any of the metals. Its main attraction is as an inflation hedge, but *if* that is a real concern of yours there are better hedges out there IMO; e.g. inflation adjusted bonds and good old real estate.

[whiteheron]

Thanks skinny

Some new sources of info there that I have not yet come across
I will follow them up

Good investing

[Packersoldkidney]

WH and Skinny:

I'm bearish on most things these days. It might take 6 months or so for that to become apparent in the markets. My views are based on a technical viewpoint; certainly not a fundamental viewpoint.

Long term I can see a rich future for anyone invested in base metals/minerals.

[whiteheron]

Packers---------

I am treating everything with great caution at present
Playing a bit of a waiting game until it becomes clearer where things are going

I was completing trades several times a day but in the last few weeks have only been doing the occasional one