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[Toulouse - Luzern]

Worst trading moment ever! buy USD/JPY at 80.115.................... minutes later..... 76.097

At least the NZD is falling fairly steadily

14 Minute Trade

Entries from Toulouse' Trading Diary ...

Market entry on NZDUSD

• 22 Feb 2011:
• Spent from 11.20AM to 1.19PM watching the MarketMaker charts deciding whether to bid on NZDUSD or AUDUSD
• Selected NZD as stronger overnight performer and from TWP, DailyFX and SMH Business Day information.
• Decided the enter on weakness ...
• A few minutes later both stronger
• Fall from 7626 to 7576 in 10 – 20 minutes 50 pips
• What will happen next?
• Entry Strategy: Decided to enter at market (7568) as previous experience of Limit buys was missing out on a rising market and spending time and energy waiting to get in later
• Initial target and stop loss was 20 pips
• My entry was in response to a sudden drop of NZDUSD, I did not know the reason and assumed it was just market variations
• Before I had completed entering my OCO sell orders Mxxxxxx rang and advised me that there had been an earthquake in Christchurch of 6.2
• Potential downside right on the entry ...
• NZ Herald website: The Christchurch police central police station has been evacuated and there are reports of collapses of many buildings, including a church in the central city.
• TV3 footage showed damage to the city's iconic cathedral in the square. Radio New Zealand said there had been reports of injuries
• The quake was at 12.53PM
• I saw the chance to enter, I didn’t know about the quake until after the entry was made
• I was in the trade at 1.28PM
• I was sold out at the stop at 1.42PM while I was talking on the phone with Dxxxxx who rang from Melbourne
• In the trade 14 minutes
• GeoNet Reference Number: 3468575
• NZDT: Tue, Feb 22 2011 12:51 pm
• Magnitude: 6.3
• Depth: 5 km
• Details: 10 km south-east of Christchurch
• My exit was 7548 the low was 7541
• The trade was never in profit
• Stand aside on NZD trades until next week at least
• There has been a recovery
• I entered at 75688
• I exited at 75488
• Low was 7541
• The current price is 75584
• Jxxxxx, Axxxx, and Sxxxx came around ...
• After they went noted that NZDUSD down 12 pips from 2.03PM to 2.36PM
• The 5 minute bar I exited on was the lowest price for the day ...
• Note RBNZ Governor due to deliver inflation expectations at 3.00PM
• Post Trade Review:
• From a timing point of view entered without certainty as to what caused the drop in price.
• From previous experience it is hard to find reasons for sudden price drops beyond market variations on the web...
• During live trades run the risk of knocking out MarketMaker while searching the web ...
• This was a successful trade as the trade was flawlessly executed to the strategy even though the outcome was a loss.
• Continuing to make lower Lows (30m Chart)
• 16 pips below my exit
• Quake hit NZX50 as well
• Down 20 points
• Good Outcome
• Executed the strategy...
• Minimised the loss (:-)

• Continues to fall ...
• 7497
• I exited at 7548
• NZDUSD fell again to 7464/67
• On the 4 hour lower Bollinger band
• BNZ Daily Newsletter
• The immediate market impact of the quake saw the NZD/USD fall ¾ cent to around 0.7560
• Yesterday afternoon and overnight, the NZD extended its losses as the news from Christchurch continued to worsen. Heavy NZD/USD and NZD cross selling from a mix of momentum and short-term speculative accounts saw a further ¾ cent knocked off the NZD/USD and widespread weakness amongst the NZD cross rates.
• The NZD/AUD finished the night around 0.7500, from above 0.7570 before the quake. NZD/EUR and NZD/GBP both shed over ½ cent.
• Initial support for NZD/USD will be found at the overnight low of 0.7440, while near-term resistance will be encountered on any bounces towards 0.7550.