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31-10-2007, 08:04 PM
#1141
Originally Posted by arco
Interesting correlation play.
So did you see the 'No Place to Hide' video from elliotwave.com then Arco? They posit a correlation between almost every market in existence attributing this to liquidity and reason that as the credit crunch exacerbates all markets will fall hence the title of it.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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01-11-2007, 08:20 AM
#1142
Fed cuts rates to 4.5%
Citing turmoil in the housing market, Bernanke and Co. lower a key short-term rate by a quarter of a point to keep the economy on track. But the central bank also said it's worried about inflation - news that spooked the markets.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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01-11-2007, 08:55 AM
#1143
Member
Hi Peat
yeah was wondering why it went down before it went up!
still long Euro at current levels 4480, 212 pips up with approx 140 pips locked in on auto pilot
certainly less stress trading medium term
cheers
roddy
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01-11-2007, 09:36 AM
#1144
Morning All
Additional FOMC info here...........
Release Date: October 31, 2007
For immediate release
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 4-1/2 percent.
Economic growth was solid in the third quarter, and strains in financial markets have eased somewhat on balance. However, the pace of economic expansion will likely slow in the near term, partly reflecting the intensification of the housing correction. Today’s action, combined with the policy action taken in September, should help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and promote moderate growth over time.
Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year, but recent increases in energy and commodity prices, among other factors, may put renewed upward pressure on inflation. In this context, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.
The Committee judges that, after this action, the upside risks to inflation roughly balance the downside risks to growth. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner;
Frederic S. Mishkin; William Poole; Eric S. Rosengren; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Thomas M. Hoenig, who preferred no change in the federal funds rate at this meeting.
In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 5 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, and San Francisco.
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01-11-2007, 09:42 AM
#1145
Morning Peat
Yes, I listened through part 3..... No hiding place apparantely.
I think what Jagerson was suggesting was using the early move of say BP Oil as a trigger for a position in Cable and jumping on before it moved in the same direction. Give an edge maybe.
rgds - arco
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01-11-2007, 10:53 AM
#1146
morning guys,
tis a thing of awe and beauty these massive run away impulise moves
id never of guessed arco that buterrfly on gbp usd would be approaching so quickly
lost another finger trying to catch falling knife on cad
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01-11-2007, 12:55 PM
#1147
losing fingers is pretty easy aye DA
Heres what ABN Amro have to say re Fed cut
Originally Posted by ABN AMRO - Tim Drayson
Economic comment
Entrapment
Tim Drayson
As was widely expected, the Fed delivered a 25bp cut in its funds and discount rate. But
Thomas Hoenig dissented, preferring no change. This indicates the decision was more finely
balanced than market pricing would suggest. After opting for a surprisingly large 50bp cut at
the last FOMC, the evidence to justify a further loosening was far from overwhelming. We'll
have to wait for the minutes, but I doubt the staff has made any downward revisions to their
2008 growth forecasts since the September meeting. In taking the decision, the FOMC
probably paid less attention to the robust 3Q07 GDP figure, and instead focussed on the
higher frequency data. There has been some softening, but no more than the Fed
anticipated. So I think the Fed was reluctant to ease, but felt compelled to because failure to
act might have unsettled markets. After all, the risk management approach is designed to
stabilize financial markets and prevent the adverse effects on the broader economy from
developing.
The statement required plenty of redrafting. The Fed noted that 'economic growth was solid
in the third quarter, and strains in financial markets have eased somewhat', but
acknowledged that 'the pace of economic expansion will likely slow in the near term, partly
reflecting the intensification of the housing correction'. The language on inflation was
expanded to include more explicit guidance about the risks, 'recent increases in energy and
commodity prices, among other factors, may put renewed upward pressure on inflation'.
Most important, and in a bid to damp speculation of further substantial cuts, the Fed inserted
an assessment of the balance of risks, saying 'the upside risks to inflation roughly balance
the downside risks to growth'. The statement concluded with the same line about acting 'as
needed'.
The fed funds rate is now around neutral and with government bond yields and the majority
of credit spreads still low and the dollar weakening, monetary conditions are not restrictive.
The economy is close to full capacity, global growth remains robust and commodity prices,
most worryingly crude oil, are soaring. As medium-term inflation risks are increasing, I don't
think the Fed sees the need to loosen policy further. But with markets pricing in further rate
cuts, the Fed has a communications issue. The statement is the first attempt to outline the
Fed's thoughts, but in subsequent speeches and the minutes I expect the Fed to explain that
because it has frontloaded rate cuts, it doesn't need to cut rates again if the data softens as
it's expecting. It's conceivable that market turbulence could re-intensify and we get more
evidence of broad-based economic weakness. A sustained drop in the monthly ISMs or rise
in unemployment could force the Fed to loosen even further. But because the Fed has been
remarkably pre-emptive, the most likely scenario is sluggish growth near-term before
returning to potential in the second half of 2008. At this stage the Fed has limited ability to
prevent the housing correction running its course, but it can help promote macro stability by
ensuring that inflation and inflation expectations remain well contained. As a result, I expect
the Fed to remain on hold through 2008.
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02-11-2007, 08:53 AM
#1148
Member
Hi
Got stopped out last night on Euro trade at the low,still 135 pip on trade.
have a cheeky wee short now in place at 4452 on Euro
cheers roddy
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02-11-2007, 10:40 AM
#1149
your Eur Chf and $Y calls were good Arco
Originally Posted by NZ Herald
Kiwi 'should be higher' as it hits US77c
economists are surprised ! lol
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/...0473575&pnum=0
I saw that USDYEN change tack about 1am and hopped the ride for a hundred.
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02-11-2007, 10:49 AM
#1150
Morning Peat
Yes, looking reasonable at the moment.....
2 Eur.Chf positions
and 1 Yen + 105
rgds -arco
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