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yes maybe i closed out to soon this morning, as I said keen to take profits - but doesnt mean I cant catch the train again tonite. 
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Hi All
Well a good night for everyone by the look of it.
Now comes the hard part, when to exit.
A few have done more than I thought already so time for a rethink.
As you say Xerof, Things are afoot
Trade well
Cheers Slam
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Slam, I read somewhere that markets trend only 20% of the time, so when they are trending (and I hold the view we have just started a new trend, but next weeks action will be more informative on that front I think) you just close your eyes and let it run.
The tricky part is where to leave trailing stops, as there will always be counter-trend moves. Some will trade the waves, in/out/in/out/in etc, (FX copulation), risking squaring up, or even going counter-trend, and seeing it continue in the trend direction, some will ignore the swings and just leave it.
Its a personal trading choice IMO, my choice when trending is to lower stops to levels above 50% of first move, initially, and let it run. As I say, trending markets are quite infrequent, so need to make the most of them when they arrive.
I have found in the past that temptation to take a profit often leads to no re-entry, especially if the rate moves further in the same direction, (the hardest action is to sell a low or buy a high) and you're left watching it without a position.
You'll note I sold NZD at lows twice yesterday, and both are looking good now. Believe me it's not easy to do.
One other thing to watch, and we see it most often in USD/JPY, is everyone will say its grossly overbought/sold, and must correct, but in a trending market, it simply doesn't - it just runs on speed for weeks on end. You'll also see it in Kiwi - just look at the weekly chart and see the continuous up or downmoves, that have almost no significant corrections. Sept03 to Jan04 is a good example
So if indeed we are entering a new uptrend for USD, get it on and leave it IMO
To answer your question
quote:Now comes the hard part, when to exit
- DON'T
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Asian open - looks like they are now sellers, having been buyers for the last few weeks - the buying was probably related to the large Uridashi issue for NZD752 mill formally announced last night, but informally known about for some time. Chinese banks were noted as sellers up at 7325/35 a couple of days ago as well, likely to be after the Uridashi order completed.
Xerof
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Beer o'clock mmmmmmmm
and the Euro's still at the same level i bought back at this morning
tipsy trading tonite
oops [:o)]
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Explains uridashi issue..........
Looming eurokiwi/uridashi crunch risk to NZD - RBNZ
http://au.biz.yahoo.com/050309/20/3nol.html
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Well, I don't know if this week has done me any good or not.
Equity up 62%, 598 pips sitting there, all sounds good but, my first few weeks trading the ASX were a few years ago when it was trending up. Didn't mater what I brought it all worked and looked easy[:I]
Learnt a lesson or 2 there. We shell see what next week brings.
Thanks for all the pointers and help arco and Xerof
Have a good weekend all. (for those signing off)
Might join you for that beer pete
and "Go The Crusaders
Cheers
Slam
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The 'issue' of Eurokiwi's and uridashi's at this time of the currency cycle is quite interesting - (they are done to raise cheap funding in the issuers home currency by issuing bonds in NZD then doing cross currency interest rate swaps into their currency of choice).
The issuer has no currency risk - this is borne by the retail purchasers of the bonds, (who are usually very high credit rated names, usually AAA or AAA+).
These retail purchasers are typically immune to/ unaware of currency risk, or don't care, and are only chasing top credit investments with a high yield. But over the past 20 years, we have seen two major 'clusters' of issuances, both Eurokiwi and more recently, uridashi, and interestingly, both surges in issuance have come when the NZD has been closing in on cyclical highs (of course its the high interest rates that attract attention from retail investors, which in turn drives the issuers to issue)
What happened last cycle was once our rates started to fall, followed by the currency, issuance dried up, as no one wants to issue in a low interest environment, especially one with a falling currency !
Then a year or two or three later, all the issues came up for redemption, pressuring NZD even further,
Deja Vu...
I think we are once again at the climatic peak of issuance, which has coincided with a peak in interest rates and currency, to be followed by the maturities hitting the market at the very time our interest rates will be/are falling relative to others, esp USD, and the currency is declining.
Once again, the retail investors will take a bath on currency risk.
The cycle seems to come around every 8 to 10 years - perhaps they all have relatively short memories....
lubbly jubbly stuff
BTW, what I meant by my comments a couple of posts ago is that the uridashi arranger will always buy the currency just prior to the issue, ideally forcing the rate higher, then its all sold to the retail customers, leaving the arranger with not only lots of fees for arranging the issuance, but also a nice profit out of the currency side of it too.
So in the past week the strong buying of NZD has been related to the 752mill issue announced last night (IMO)
Xerof
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