General Chit-Chat

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yeh somewhere around there I guess -
long on Eur from 1671 now
and same with kiwi from 0.6843

i havent made it to Khalsa yet... TRL is giving me good stuff to work with, and given my reduced equity cant hold too many positions open. But am slowly clawing my way back

and yeh, I'm glad I'm wearin my shades , did you squeeze a pimple [V]

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whipsaw Friday hmmmm not easy ....

i been thinkin that a platform with stop triggered by time frame close would be dammmmm useful. could result in some unpredictable results tho

anyone heard of this.

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Danish Daily

Something is definitely cooking in the financial market place right now.
Take a look at the dollar, which is holding up fine against the majors
like EUR and not least the JPY. But that's about it. The other dollar
crosses are being slammed as is the dollar against gold. High yielding
currencies like AUD, NZD, ZAR, MXN - you name them - are all
spiking to new highs. The only kind of explanation I can see is A. that
market participants are in the making of revising their expectations as
to the future of the rate hike cycle in the US, meaning that they do not
fear a continued row of further rate hikes. Or B. that they are focussed
on an improving growth outlook in the US relying on the latest better
than expected economic figures from the US. Whether A or B is the
right explanation or not, people are scrambling to put on further risk
despite the risk of deteriorating global liquidity in case FED, ECB and
other central bank colleagues continue their efforts to control the
liquidity overhang they constantly warn us all about. For what it is
worth - the market participants are not paying any attention at all - for
the moment that is.
As a consequence of the above I have this morning been pressured into
taking stop loss on my tactical positions in both USD/CAD,
NZD/USD, AUD/USD, leaving me with only 50% bought positions in
all three crosses. My disbelief in the ongoing development described
above does, however, continue to haunt me. I clearly feel that the
present financial trend is going to play havoc with the risk seeking
financial acteurs. Just imagine what would happen, should the FED
turn off liquidity more than expected now! We could quickly have an
emergency financial situation on our hands instead.

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I'm now out of my long kiwi +79 and short Eur , currently +10
might try a short Ozzie tonite too.... but we will see.

[Xerof]

quote:Xerof said 21/10 - needs some sort of trigger to turn it back down - a Standard and Poors credit downgrade would assist

quote:7/12 - N.Z. Record Current Account Gap Threatens AA+ Rating, S&P Says. New Zealand's ``unsustainable'' current account deficit is a threat to the outlook for the nation's AA+ foreign currency credit rating. ``The stable outlook on the rating reflects Standard & Poor's expectation that current account deficit will return to historic levels,'' S&P said in a statement.

too late for my recent trades, but might start a landslide in thin December markets......parabolic rallies usually end in tears, firstly for those shorted on the way up, then for those who caused it in the first place

Not many seem to have taken much notice of the second sentence - that the rating is unchanged....

where's the door............

Xerof

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good to see u on the FF xerof!

I raced home to ensure my SL was taken and yes it was....
so thats ok ....

[zyreon]

lol

u think the OCR review will keep it up?
(or slow it down!)

might be a repeat of march/april when it touched 74 then dropped like a stone, esp with Fed next wednesday

[Xerof]

Z

IMO,

Bollard will hike, maybe 50, remain hawkish, and repeat his latest mantra that we need a reduction in CA, which he believes needs to come from a lower currency (aid exports) and higher rates (slow domestic consumption).

I think we all believe that, but of course almost impossible to achieve. An actual credit downgrade would ironically be of great assistance as it would stop Iridashi's in their tracks, might encourage hedging out of existing issues, and would certainly raise the cost of borrowing for all NZer's, incl the state.

Todays news will surely cause a bit of apprehension, but may well be overtaken by tomorrows......

Xerof

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Its a bit late to post this now, being almost after the event but both Lone Olesen from Jyske Bank (9PM NZT )and Jack Crooks (1 AM NZT )from BlackSwantrading became dollar bearish last night eyeing a correction in the Euro. Max had been touting 1.1840 for some time.
Jack also sees the US stockmarket as having peaked for a while.

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compliments of the silly season to all the forex people. !