Rubicon

[zigzag]

According to the Herald, RBC has a new ceo, by the name of Jenny Gibbs. Where do they get these stupid stories from?

[ari]

You really have to wonder?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11369727

[zigzag]

Looks like they've corrected their story now. Luke Moriarty is re-instated.

[mikeybycrikey]

I've just been reading through the documents from the annual meeting and it all seems pretty positive. However, in the CEO's address, he says "All of these initiatives, ... , have allowed Tenon to upgrade its mid-cycle EBITDA guidance to US$45 million per annum."

In the footnotes, they say that this USD of 0.70 NZD and 1.65 million housing starts (currently 1.009 million). I accept that 1.65 million starts and a USD rate of 0.70 aren't unreasonably optimistic but that's certainly not an outlook for 2015. And it might not even happen in 2016.

It seems to make the estimate of EBITDA of $45 million "mid-cycle" seem like pie in the sky rather than an actual estimate.

[biker]

Interesting that ACC have bought 75000 shares to take them above the 5% and onto the radar.
Maybe they just saw RBC for sale at 32c and couldn't resisist a bargain :-)
(Still above my average buy in)
I think this year Rubicon will be getting near the end of the road, one way or the other, so having travelled the long and winding road with them this far I will hang on for the ride to the profitable ( hopefully) or bitter (possibly) end.
The market certainly continues to show a complete lack of interest, but then where are bargains to be found? Certainly not in some of the fruity expectIons displayed in many of the current share prices.

Disc. Hold quite a few so treat my comments as biased and take with a pinch of salt

[ari]

Yep Biker it's been a long haul, in fact I've been waiting 11 years!

[nzspeak]

but then where are bargains to be found? Certainly not in some of the fruity expectIons displayed in many of the current share prices

That's the million dollar question which has never been asked so well.

[ari]

Latest Edison report well worth a read...Our analysis suggests that the market is undervaluing Rubicon’s two
investments individually and, therefore, the company itself. Tenon’s
ongoing profit recovery and increased penetration of advanced genetics
seedlings and a potential financing/liquidity event for ArborGen are likely
to be the key drivers of a higher Rubicon share price, in our view. We see a
fundamental valuation range of between NZ$0.64 and NZ$1.06 per share.

[psychic]

Bit sad when this highly tuned market place of ours needs an Edison report and a little bit of coverage in the local rag to recognise value, but there you go. Parcel of 1.0m shares through this morning at .32 and the rest of that long standing overhang at 32.5 gone. Just like that. Sheesh.

[biker]

Latest Edison report well worth a read...Our analysis suggests that the market is undervaluing Rubicon’s two
investments individually and, therefore, the company itself. Tenon’s
ongoing profit recovery and increased penetration of advanced genetics
seedlings and a potential financing/liquidity event for ArborGen are likely
to be the key drivers of a higher Rubicon share price, in our view. We see a
fundamental valuation range of between NZ$0.64 and NZ$1.06 per share.

But then some of us knew that already didn't we?
Is today's action ACC buying some more cheapies?
Is that the last of the cheapies?
Could Tenon be sold to provide cash for Rubicon shareholders and to provide funding for ArborGen?

?