Rubicon

**t.rexjr** · 29-06-2017, 04:32 PM

So yesterday:
Shares on issue 409,051,378
50% of Clearwood $27.5m ($55m)
31.7% of Arborgen 31.7m (random valuation of 100m)
$25m net cash equity
Total asset value $84.2m (USD)
0.2058 cps asset value (0.28 NZD)

Today:
Shares on issue 487,908,378
50% of Clearwood $27.5m ($55m)
100% of Arborgen 100m (random valuation of 100m)
$8.5m net cash equity ($25m less remaining 16.5m cash due for purchase)
Total asset value $136m (USD)
0.2787 cps asset value (0.38 NZD)

35% gain in asset value per share

This assumes that the remaining $16.5m not funded by share placement is to be bank loan (or even better paid in full from yet to be announced capital from the unreported 15 month period to Oct 17’)

Either way I like this

Asset values used are somewhat meaningless in my example. It’s very much educated guesswork. My interest is more with the % of asset gained per share.
I feel $29m USD purchase price of the remaining 68.3% is exceptional buying

Feel free to rain on my parade and point out flawed logic…

**Xerof** · 29-06-2017, 04:51 PM

Net cash movement for 30 June is 1.5m going out (14m for first tranche less 12.5 for share issue) with 15m left to pay in the other 2 tranches.

Not sure whether you have included the share issue cash anywhere? - is it in the 25m figure?

Will they now IPO Arborgen for 300m?

at 23 cents, they appear to be at 50% discount to underlying value on the numbers being bandied about

**Balance** · 29-06-2017, 04:54 PM

Originally Posted by ari

Perhaps full impact of news has not filtered thru, but I would have thought more of a lift than 1.5 cents.......

Will take the market (cynical as ever) a while to digest the fact that the announcement is a real game changer. I have been extremely critical as well of the way the Board has been communicating with minority shareholders regarding the change in balance date, but I do think that this goes some way to explaining why they changed the balance date without explanation at that time.

Those of us who attended the Tenon's AGM this year and listened in on the lengthy presentation by the Board of what Aborgen is about and where it is headed will be very comfortable with this move. RBC is on its way to realise the potential value of Aborgen.

A figure of US$100m was mentioned as conservative (from memory) so that's 33c per share plus Clearwood.

**t.rexjr** · 29-06-2017, 04:57 PM

Originally Posted by Xerof

Net cash movement for 30 June is 1.5m going out (14m for first tranche less 12.5 for share issue) with 15m left to pay in the other 2 tranches.

Not sure whether you have included the share issue cash anywhere? - is it in the 25m figure?

Will they now IPO Arborgen for 300m?

The 12.5m share issue cash is a zero balance as far as equity goes...

**Xerof** · 29-06-2017, 05:02 PM

Yep, I see how you've done it now.

still at a 50 % discount with the values bandied about for the 2 assets. As Balance says, conservative...

**silverblizzard888** · 29-06-2017, 05:42 PM

Rubicon must be SCISSORS.

There partners are called International PAPER
and WestROCK

So I guess next time you play paper, scissors, rock......choose scissors!
Cause they really know how to cut a deal.

**Leftfield** · 29-06-2017, 06:46 PM

This from Rubicon's last report (Dec 2016) re ArborGen

Despite the flat US production performance noted above, the expectation is that total ArborGen’s revenuewill lift by 12.5%+ year-on-year, to over US$40 million, aided by the growth achieved in Brazil and the increasein average sales price to be recorded in the US.
The end result of the above is that ArborGen should remain on track to meet its EBITDA break-even target(including the full expensing of all product research costs) in this current fiscal year. Although it has takena little longer than we would have hoped, this is an important milestone in ArborGen’s life. It has built theleading technology and global commercialisation platform in the industry. It is now producing in excess of340 million seedlings, per annum, globally, and has firmly established a new core commercialisation arena inBrazil. It has also largely passed through the heavy product development spend phase, and past EBITDA losses,which peaked at circa US$18 million per annum, are well behind it.

It will be good to see a market update soon.