Rubicon

[Balance]

Balance.
They refer to their Annual Review.I can't find it on NZX or www.stocknessmonster.com sites.
Do you know what date it was announced?
Most probably under a different name.

This one - refer to page 30 of the Audit Report.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...916/270483.pdf

Love the words 'Bargain Purchase"!

[ari]

Taken from Edison report April '15 (is this why Rubicon no longer use Edison)....3 years on and how things change...

At current share prices, the inferred ArborGen total equity value is c US$175m-180m. When we
initiated coverage of Rubicon in June 2013, we presented DCF-based valuations for ArborGen of c
US$354m for ArborGen’s existing US and Australasian activities and a further US$300m for new
market opportunities (including Brazil). Adjusting the existing operation value for current net debt of
c US$30m, gives equivalent values for each element of NZ$0.33 and NZ$0.31 per Rubicon share
respectively. A future liquidity event for ArborGen may take the form of an IPO; even allowing for a
valuation which focuses on existing established operations only and with a typical IPO discount, we
believe that this would still yield a look-through value to Rubicon above the level inferred by the
current share price.
It would appear then that the values of both of Rubicon’s investment shareholdings are
undervalued. We also note a disconnect between the share prices of Tenon and Rubicon:
 Since the beginning of 2013, Tenon’s share price has more than doubled but that for Rubicon
is little changed.
 Since the beginning of 2014, the performance divergence is even more stark, with Tenon
rising by over 30%, while Rubicon is c 11% lower.
We believe that Rubicon’s share price should show greater correlation with movements in Tenon’s
share price, (broadly, a 10c move in Tenon is equivalent to 1c move in Rubicon), and would expect
it to respond to any news flow that establishes an independent market value for ArborGen. Taking a
combined view of our analyses above suggests:
 a conservative case valuation of NZ$0.64 per share – Tenon NZ$0.36 (lower end of range),
plus ArborGen existing NZ$0.33, (ie base value net of current debt) and including Rubicon net
debt of NZ$0.05 per share.
 a more bullish case valuation of NZ$1.06 per share – Tenon NZ$0.47, plus ArborGen total
NZ$0.64 (net of current debt), again including an NZ$0.05 per share adjustment for Rubicon
net debt.

[percy]

This one - refer to page 30 of the Audit Report.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...916/270483.pdf

Love the words 'Bargain Purchase"!

Thanks for the link.
Yes "Bargain Purchase" has a certain ring to it.!..lol.
Don't recall ever seeing that before.

[blackcap]

I attended the meeting this morning.
Very interesting and insightful.
Some very pissed off shareholders and had a few chuckles from a few corners.
Happy to hold at 22.5 a few weeks ago.
Bit annoyed that Percy took those at 24 I was having a look at

[Balance]

I attended the meeting this morning.
Very interesting and insightful.
Some very pissed off shareholders and had a few chuckles from a few corners.
Happy to hold at 22.5 a few weeks ago.
Bit annoyed that Percy took those at 24 I was having a look at

Any interesting questions from the floor?

[blackcap]

Any interesting questions from the floor?

There were literally dozens of questions from the floor. Meeting took 1 hour 40 odd and the opening 2 speeches were very short. It was pretty much q and a time.
1st Q from Sharehodlers association... what are you going to do with governance structure now you are basically 2 coys in 1. A, not sure yet working on it, many S/H and tax implications to consider.
Q on promising EBITDA, but how can we believe you because you have been promising this for years. A from CEO, well this time it really is true. Arbo is a growht company and we are already going into positive EBIT.
Q on different types of trees or varieties, and other related question as to risks. A. Main risk is weather.
Q about how you can justify a mkt capitalisation of $100m when your profit is forecast to be $2m. A, growth story.
Question and statement on implications of auditors comments from a past auditor who said he had never seen something like this before and in his mind that itself was a huge plus and positive for the company.
Q on the valuation of IP at about $100m,.... are they one whole or is is an accumulation of individual IP's. A... an accumulation of a lot of different IP's each individually valued.
Q about whether exec team or Rubicon is now redundant... A, we are working on it.
Statement from floor... should really change name to something other than Rubicon (rubicon has negative connotations etc). A. We are aware of that and its a very good suggestion.
CEO was very positive about the growth he expects from Arborgen and said watch the space.
Also commodity seedlings sell for about 6 cents US, the Arborgen ones between 16-25 cents each. Hurricanes in the US (last season) also destroyed about a quarter of sales or about 25m which would imply that they lost out on $5m or revenue... Of which a lot would go straight to bottom line.

Hope that helps.

[Balance]

Hope that helps.

Many thanks, Blackcap.

Much appreciated!

[percy]

Blackcap.
Thank you for your great meeting comments.
Making me feel even more guilty about buying those shares under your nose.!

[blackcap]

Blackcap.
Thank you for your great meeting comments.
Making me feel even more guilty about buying those shares under your nose.!

Haha not a problem and good luck to you. I had my phone with me this morning, I was just not quick enough
Like I said earlier, happy in at 22.5 so not complaining at all. May top up if the price comes back a bit.
Cheers.

[Balance]

Haha not a problem and good luck to you. I had my phone with me this morning, I was just not quick enough
Like I said earlier, happy in at 22.5 so not complaining at all. May top up if the price comes back a bit.
Cheers.

Again, sp may not come back?

In the end if AborGen lives up to its promise, whether one invests at 21c or 26c should not really matter.

https://www.nasdaq.com/markets/ipos/...c-838281-65315

The IPO indicative value of NZ$660m a few years ago provides an indication of upside potential - $1.35 per share.

IPO was pulled if you recall due to litigation brought by disaffected employees who believed they should also have big slice of the upside potential. Law suit was ultimately settled out of court with minimal impact on Aborgen and Rubicon.