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Thread: Rubicon

  1. #611
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Certainly will be a long play but like Tenon, could be very rewarding as it is a stock largely ignored by NZ institutions.

    You should read through the Tenon thread to get an appreciation of how cynical and skeptical the NZ market is about the two ugly ducklings left over from the breakup of Fletcher Challenge group in 2000!

    Some of us were very happy to pick up Tenon even though the stock hardly did anything for quite a while. When it started moving, it was most rewarding indeed.
    I recall reading on 4 Jan that ACC have taken up a significant interest and on 8 Jan for BNZ also and so not without institutional interest. Liquidity continues to be dismal all the same. I agree with others that patience is still needed. The burst of interest following the AGM shows what can happen but I think we need for Arborgen to produce growth in profits before the SP really moves. I am not surprised by the slow fall back in price in recent weeks since that burst of interest since it will have been from small holders fired up after the AGM with pronouncements by Luke Moriarty of great prospects now that Rubicon is taking full control of Arborgen.
    A name change will help RBC escape the ugly duckling syndrome but progress from Arborgen is the only thing that will make any real difference.
    The reason Tenon finally moved is because the US housing market began moving again. Since forestry runs on a 30 year cycle, I cannot see the same short-term impact on Arborgen although if the lumber prices spike up enough then the forestry companies will mill their stock at an earlier stage to take advantage of high prices. That will lead to higher levels of planting in the short term and hence orders for Arborgen. However, this is all based on "if".
    Of course, Arborgen's product appeal is superior tree genetics resulting in increased growth rates, higher disease resistance and higher quality lumber. That requires increased marketing and educational activity by Arborgen in order to "sell" their advantages to customers. This is not an over-night exercise but one that should deliver progressive results.

  2. #612
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    I guess we should be seeing an update here soon?


    "The next fiscal year should see a noticeable further lift in earnings yet again, and we will announce toyou exactly what our target is for the Mar’19 year once we have successfully closed the current year."

  3. #613
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    Quote Originally Posted by Well Endowed View Post
    I guess we should be seeing an update here soon?


    "The next fiscal year should see a noticeable further lift in earnings yet again, and we will announce toyou exactly what our target is for the Mar’19 year once we have successfully closed the current year."
    I am guessing towards the end of May. As the YE is March, they have 2 months after that to announce to market. Make sense or have I missed something?

  4. #614
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    I am guessing towards the end of May. As the YE is March, they have 2 months after that to announce to market. Make sense or have I missed something?
    I too would think the end of May.

  5. #615
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    I am guessing towards the end of May. As the YE is March, they have 2 months after that to announce to market. Make sense or have I missed something?
    I guess well endowed point was that if they beat their expectations , they might provide an update before they release the actual results in May. I'm hoping that there'll provide an update over next few days as they would know the numbers by now.

  6. #616
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    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    I guess well endowed point was that if they beat their expectations , they might provide an update before they release the actual results in May. I'm hoping that there'll provide an update over next few days as they would know the numbers by now.
    Yeah - Good news usually is released in a more timely fashion than bad news. All indications in the recent shareholder's address etc is that things were shaping up nicely.

  7. #617
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    Quote Originally Posted by Well Endowed View Post
    Yeah - Good news usually is released in a more timely fashion than bad news. All indications in the recent shareholder's address etc is that things were shaping up nicely.
    I thought news that was material of any kind, be it good or bad, had to be released immediately under NZX listing rules. Maybe I was mistaken

  8. #618
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    I thought news that was material of any kind, be it good or bad, had to be released immediately under NZX listing rules. Maybe I was mistaken

    I'm sure any 'bad' news (ie a flatter outlook) would just take a bit longer to validate the numbers and ensure it's fully accurate for release

  9. #619
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    Mr re-load 83,843 shares; Why not let the price run a little? You have no competition until 28c. Just a thought...

  10. #620
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    Quote Originally Posted by t.rexjr View Post
    Mr re-load 83,843 shares; Why not let the price run a little? You have no competition until 28c. Just a thought...
    Let the market do what it wants to do.

    Simply means that RBC is building up a nice sp support base at 24c.

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