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  1. #1
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    Default USD.CHF

    Just closed my long from 1.1986 at 1.2248, for lots of money

    Seems to be ready for a small retracement from intermediate term highs around 1.2250.

    Still like it to go higher, so will attempt to get long again on any retracement to 1.2170/90 area


    Xerof

  2. #2
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    Added another unit of USD/CHF 1.2330 to my Friday entry at 1.2210

  3. #3
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    closed out both units at 1.2313 for +103 and -17


    No firm ideas at the moment

    Xerof

  4. #4
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    Arco,

    Think I can see a large bearish gartley on the USD/CHF weekly

    can't post a graph, but points I get are
    X was 1.2850, A was 1.1300, B was 1.2260 (perfect 61.8% of XA), C was 1.1480 (78.6% of AB) D target anywhere between 1.2470 (127% of BC) and 1.2732 (161.8% of BC) according to Hoyles....

    Can you confirm this as a genuine pattern? I'm only practicing...

    in your experience where do most D targets end? hint hint

    Xerof

  5. #5
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    given that the Eur/$ is moderately consistent with the inverse of USD/CHF do u also see a bullish version forming there too?


  6. #6
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Xerof

    Yes you have the dates spot on.

    quote:target.......anywhere between 1.2470 (127% of BC) and 1.2732 (161.8% of BC)
    Herein lies the problem, because one must always remember
    Gartleys can disappoint by developing further into Butterflies.

    So, finding a possible pattern is only the beginning and
    other TA needs to be carried out to try to confirm
    the likelihood of a reversal at the target point/s.

    I usually look at Gann levels, Fibonacci retracements/
    extensions, and marry that all in with old support,
    resistance, trendlines, etc, etc.

    Peat - yes currently, and in a number of timeframes,
    the larger of which is way into the future as it looks
    presently. (So much so it is almost crystal ball gazing).

    arco






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  7. #7
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    The action has reached the lower
    elements of the Butterfly reversal zone,
    plus a Gartley zone on another time scale.







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  8. #8
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    quote:The action has reached the lower
    elements of the Butterfly reversal zone,
    plus a Gartley zone on another time scale
    quote:finding a possible pattern is only the beginning and
    other TA needs to be carried out to try to confirm
    the likelihood of a reversal at the target point/s
    To my inexperienced TA eye Arco, market momentum is so good on this trend that my 161.8% target of circa 12732 might be a minimum????

    Xerof

    sorry not much input lately, but terribly distracted with setting up my little fund (which is getting larger with every incoming phone call)

    God the paperwork and beauracracy is unbelievable - I am apparently a 'financial institution', but my fees are not GST liable, I am now an employer (of myself) which means PAYE, FBT, RSVP and RIP[^], I have to act as policeman for customs on the lookout for money launderers, have to file audited annual accounts with Companies Office so all and sundry can have a look, collect RWT on behalf of IRD, vote Labour (no, thats not in any Act of Parliament -- just yet) - on and on it goes[xx(][xx(][xx(][xx(]

    Still I suppose if I can make 5 to 10 mill a year its possibly worth the effort

  9. #9
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Hello Xerof

    Yes, just reaching the bounderies of the zones
    means nothing other than we should be aware of
    that fact. Little to be done other that watch for
    further signs. A centralized Harami printed
    overnight and that is technically classed as a
    reversal pattern, (although further confirmation
    is always suggested).

    I have possible Gann resistance at 2573/2695, and
    the upper zone of the Med Butterfly circa 2748.

    Complications are that we have 3 Butterfly/
    Gartley zones coming together in the one area,
    and that is unusual. The larger Gartley has
    a very high price zone much further north if
    it turns into a Butterfly.

    The long term model remains long as reported
    on the Monarch thread.

    Ummm....not sure why you would want to burden yourself
    with all that hassle when you can make $1 mill
    PA trading your own account and have no one
    other than yourself and Mrs Xerof to answer to

    However, I can help you spend that 4/5 mill if the need
    arises.

    Back to the paperwork






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  10. #10
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    Arco, thanks for those comments -I'll keep an unblinking eye on Monarch 1 for the turn on USD/CHF - is there any sort on email alert function on Sharetrader, or maybe direct to my mobile?

    Of course, the lazy 5 to 10 is on top of PA 1 Arco - its tough to make a decent living these days - need to put in at least 3 hours a day - 3 or 4 days a week - what is the world coming to, I ask you - must be this productivity gain claptrap we keep hearing about hmmmm?

    Nice celebratory time in honour of QEII mid year DoB to all, I'm off to watch the trials - NFP can go jump tonight

    Xerof

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