USD.CHF

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Update For: August 21
Posted On: Fri, 22 Aug 2008 03:51:02 GMT
USDCHF
Last Price: 1.0986
Support: 1.0845, 1.0825, 1.0775, 1.0745
Resistance: 1.1000, 1.1040, 1.1105, 1.1450

[Topping?]
A possible double zigzag, where the two zigzags are equal may be at an end. Further, the recovery, underway since March, has reached an area of resistance offered by the prior fourth wave. The recovery has also reached the middle of the Fibo target area.

If the recovery is a correction, which we've favored all along, this is the time/place for it to end.

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Update For: August 8
Posted On: Fri, 08 Aug 2008 00:47:37 GMT
USDCHF
Last Price: 1.0986
Support: 1.0845, 1.0825, 1.0775, 1.0745
Resistance: 1.1000, 1.1040, 1.1105, 1.1450

The decline below 1.1116 satisfied long-term downside expectations. But that does not mean the decline is complete. In fact, the September/October/November drop looks like a third wave. A series of fourth and fifth waves should keep $CHF under pressure.

The recovery from March is corrective to this point so the trend is toward lower levels.

[dumbass]

following on from Peats ewi posts

dollar showing signs of topping out next week

garley close on daily with divergence

terminal ending diagonal close to completion in 5th wave position with divergence

[dumbass]

5 waves may signal completion of ending diagonal

5th wave may often display terminal thrust beyond upper boundary

short from 1.1350 and 1.1340

will add if it closes below upper boundary

[arco]

Hi DB

I had several short positions running last night from circa 1340 and took 164 pips total before shutting up shop.

The short/medium term scenario certainly looks to be south, but we may be able to play a few more swings before the trend sets in properly.

arco

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a big night...
with 780 billion more of them I was pretty sure they werent going to be worth more and was fearing a msaaive gap so I even started shorting this during the weekend. (Oanda never closes).
I was kind of surprised how long it took to start falling though
Didnt mean to but the t/p closed one +180 leaving the other open currently +300

In hindsight (as always) this was actually the opportunity of a lifetime - should've hit this a lot harder...

[arco]

Nice one Peat

Heres an e-mail I received overnight from Martin Weiss........

It was a surreal moment: Senator Christopher Dodd told ABC’s “Good Morning America” that Treasury Secretary Paulson and Fed Chief Bernanke had just informed Congressional leaders “We’re literally days away from a complete meltdown of our financial system.”
Things got even scarier when he told CNN, “There was dead silence in the room for five to 10 seconds. The oxygen went out of the room.”
No wonder Congress is falling all over itself to pass the $700-billion bailout bill to buy toxic mortgages!
Combined with the $25 billion spent to bail out Bear Sterns, $100 billion each for Fannie and Freddie and $85 billion for AIG, Washington has now pledged more than $1 TRILLION to fight this crisis so far — and still, it’s only the beginning:

• Yesterday, Paulson announced he’s adding another $50 billion to ensure the money market funds ...
• He’s also expanding the bail-out to include car loans, credit card debt and more ...
• And Democrats in Congress are clamoring for hundreds of billions more for a second economic stimulus package, for a bailout of homeowners at risk for losing their homes and more!

And still — even if Congress gives Paulson everything he asks for and more — there’s still one, glaring, “inconvenient truth” nobody’s talking about ...

None of these unprecedented actions
are enough to end this massive debt crisis!

1. They do little to guarantee that more financial institutions won’t fail: Sure — Washington is going to buy toxic loans from the institutions that invested in them. But don’t think for a moment banks and other companies are going to get top dollar for the poison in their portfolios.
Although the details of the bailout are still sketchy, it’s clear that Washington will pay a deeply discounted price for that bad paper. That means the financial institutions that own those lousy investments are still going to take huge losses.
And in many cases, those losses are likely to be large enough to push many of these teetering firms over the brink.
Our forecast: Despite this massive, historic, unprecedented bailout, you will still continue to see a chain reaction of bank failures and corporate bankruptcies.
2. They do little to slow the explosion in mortgage defaults that caused this mess in the first place: With the economy slowing, unemployment surging, home values still plunging and monthly payments on six million adjustable rate mortgages set to rise, the tidal wave of mortgage delinquencies and defaults we’ve seen so far is almost certain to grow larger, not smaller.
As Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY), chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, told FOX News Sunday, “If you don't solve the mortgage crisis, you're not going to solve the financial crisis.”
3. They do nothing to address the $180-trillion derivatives time bomb at U.S. commercial banks: Thirty years of deregulation have allowed a parallel financial system to arise in America in which more than $180 trillion dollars in derivatives are held and traded by U.S. banks with scant government supervision or accounting.
The truth is, no one has any idea of the magnitude of the deleveraging ahead or the size of the debts that will ultimately have to be written down!
4. They do virtually nothing to cause lenders to end the credit drought that’s spreading the contagion to other sectors: To survive, banks are desperately raising credit requirements ... slashing lines of credit for corporations and spending limits on credit cards ... turning down all but the most highly qualified borrowers.
And that’s what’s causing so much pain at companies making products that consumers buy on credit: Autos, home improvement products, electronics and other high-end merchandise.
BOTTOM LINE: As massive as it is, the Paulson-Bernanke plan can’t even begin to resolve this crisis. In fact ...

This $1 trillion bailout virtually guarantees
this crisis will spin wildly out of control!

Look: Until last week, the White House projected that the 2009 federal deficit would be $482 billion. Now, just with the bailouts announced and proposes so far, Congress is tacking on 1 trillion to that number, or even more.
That means plunging prices for Treasury notes and bonds plus soaring interest rates. And that, in turn, means rapidly rising payments on ARMs — a coup de grâce for millions of homeowners who are barely clinging to their homes as it is.
It also means the recession will be deeper and longer than it otherwise might have been. And it means scores of U.S. companies that manufacture and sell products requiring consumer credit will be hit even harder.

Sincerely,
Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.

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dunno amr

usd/chf looks like its about to fall over to me

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well it never did quite fall over like I thought but I still managed to make some reasonable pips by fading the rises and buying back in troughs. Out now tho..

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put in a sell order this morning at 1.1365 when the price was heading below 1.1300. But even tho price went to over 1.1400 it hasnt been triggered!! :mad: