ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Balance]

Blackpeter ATM’s share price is a direct result of its very high, long term sustainable growth. It is not an agriculutural company and has more in common with other strongly branded FMCG like coca cola, pepsi or kelloggs, albeit much healthier than it does with a typical farm or milk processer like fonterra, economics wise

It's ok. He is probably short and wondering why nobody shares his view.

Actually, there's 45m shares shorted so plenty share his view!

Why there is a stockmarket and guess we will not know until a few years from now?

Meanwhile, let the arguments and discussions flourish!

[BlackPeter]

So Nestle is an agricultural company too? Probably the same sort of thinking which has cursed NZ & Fonterra to be a commodity player - while the likes of Nestle cream it in the markets.

Meanwhile, notice 5m shorted shares covered in the last month even as the sp spiked ever higher?

Sell low, buy high!

I know who I prefer to follow!

Nestle is a successful and highly diversified international food and drink company though their revenue went backwards over the last 5 years ... Which property of Nestle do you want to transfer to ATM?

ATM is compared to Nestle a one trick pony. Nestle suppliers are interchangeable, important are its brands. ATM suppliers are specialised while the brand of ATM is currently not that strong (and, as we have seen, can be copied without punishment: ATWO).

Not quite sure the comparison makes sense.

But even if it would - trying to identify comparable companies, candidates, sports teams or similar and than transferring elements of the history of one candidate to the other (because they are "comparable") is one of the well-known cognitive biases (or fallacies).

VHS was a mediocre but very successful video recording standard. Which would make BetaMax to a much more successful standard - hey, they have been technically even better! Would it have made sense to compare them (in the seventies) and predict based on this comparison how they develop?

I suppose you are currently holding and I am not ... which brings us to the endowment effect (just another bias). Does not mean though you are wrong, it just means that you would think (right or wrong) that your holding is succesful. I am wishing holders all the best and a XRO-like rampup, but think personally that the current price reflects more of the opportunties but not all of the risks.

But than I probably thought that as well with XRO at $10 (and have been wrong) as well as with WYN at $2.80 (and have been right). And yes, I know - none of them are comparable.

[winner69]

Always learning BP

What’s ATWO?

[BlackPeter]

Always learning BP

What’s ATWO?

ATWO was the original brand name for Nestles famous a2 milk formula when they launched it in March 2018 in China. Apparantly its now called "Illumina two Stage 3". Sure - not as flash as "A2 Platinum", isn't it?

http://pro.m.jd.com/mall/active/34Rb...A5A/index.html

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12021611

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12140866

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...l=1#post709479

[winner69]

Thanks BP ..with you now

Bound to be an interesting xpensive failure

Wonder how Danone are going with their IF these days. Only a few months ago they reported a decline in China sales.

[BlackPeter]

Thanks BP ..with you now

Bound to be an interesting xpensive failure

Wonder how Danone are going with their IF these days. Only a few months ago they reported a decline in China sales.

Well, yes - lets hope that Nestles A2 milk failure (if it does fail) is not as well one of the transferable attributes when we compare ATM with them ;

[Balance]

Nestle is a successful and highly diversified international food and drink company though their revenue went backwards over the last 5 years ... Which property of Nestle do you want to transfer to ATM?

.

My point is that Fonterra (NZ Dairy Board before that) had the same opportunity to develop into the added value product range and operations like Nestle - same background.

Instead, New Zealanders chose to be in the commodity business - no vision and no strategy beyond being a price taker - that's the curse of the small minded people who predominant the business scene in NZ.

ATM comes along and Fonterra actually laughed and sent the company away.

Well, we know who is laughing now.

[dreamcatcher]

Quality institutional investors SEQUOIO Funds & VANGUARD Group recent buyers

https://www.afr.com/markets/why-the-...0190129-h1ama1

[winner69]

Quality institutional investors SEQUOIO Funds & VANGUARD Group recent buyers

https://www.afr.com/markets/why-the-...0190129-h1ama1

Wow - Sequoia keen on A2

Mind you Sequoia dont seem to have done too well the last 5 years - 1.65%pa v S&P 8.50%pa ....but if they are keen on A2 they must be quality institutional investors

Anyway here's their newsletter

[url]https://www.sequoiafund.com/Download.aspx?ID=32e6202f-248f-40b6-a2dc-1e29c8750048&Name=Q4_2018_-_Investor_Letter[/url -

[Beagle]

Finally spotted Anchor lite A2 milk in my local Countdown yesterday and to say I was surprised at the price would be an understatement.
I thought Synlait only paid a tiny premium (20 cents extra from memory) to farmers for their A2 milk supply ?
Anyway at $6.37 for 2 liters I thought its quite clear that the cows are not the only ones being "milked"
Picked up 4 liters of dairy dale regular milk at the dairy on the way home for $6.00.

Youi did well Couta1 selling in the late $13's...was getting a bit frothy there wasn't it !