sharetrader
  1. #12861
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,738

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Hey winner I got back on the BAL horse but still patiently waiting for a remount of this stallion(Probably around mid May I reckon) PS- Since 15/1/2015 only 15 posts on the ASX BAL thread and 4 of those are our recent ones winner now that's a dead horse aye.
    Good one ...have a good ride

    Do BAL and ATM share prices sort of move in tandem (except the spike times) or do they get of step at times and give opportunities like you taking now
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #12862
    Outside thinking.
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    2,563

    Default

    March IF exports ex Lyttelton up an amazing 250% on prior period. (Remember ATM's additional Marketing spending will be kicking in too.)

    YTD up 51.7%. as posted on HC.

    Details in this pic;
    Attachment 10501

    As usual DYOR.

  3. #12863
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    9,497

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Good one ...have a good ride

    Do BAL and ATM share prices sort of move in tandem (except the spike times) or do they get of step at times and give opportunities like you taking now
    Hmm - there seems to be some correlation - for roughly 40% of the time ...

    Whether that's enough to make money out of the correlation (or lack thereof) I don't know. There seem to be quite strong and uncorrelated factors impacting on the rest:

    Attachment 10502

    Ah yes - but both did quite well on the 5 years chart - didn't they?
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  4. #12864
    Banned
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    8,516

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Good one ...have a good ride

    Do BAL and ATM share prices sort of move in tandem (except the spike times) or do they get of step at times and give opportunities like you taking now
    BAL more volatile due to a number of issues over the last couple of years and reached $22AU odd at one point and $20AU odd over the last year so more upside at the moment than A2 at it's current price over a short to medium timeframe. Once it gains full approval for all its products the SP of both should move closer together once again.

  5. #12865
    Investor
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Posts
    5,643

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Left field View Post
    March IF exports ex Lyttelton up an amazing 250% on prior period. (Remember ATM's additional Marketing spending will be kicking in too.)

    YTD up 51.7%. as posted on HC.

    Details in this pic;
    Attachment 10501

    As usual DYOR.
    Wow, just wow. That’s one heck of a picture.

  6. #12866
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    9,497

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    Wow, just wow. That’s one heck of a picture.

    Just wondering -

    did anybody ever manage to reconcile these "Lyttleton IF exports" with Synlait and / or Fonterra and / or Westland Milk's accounts? They all will ship some of their stuff through Lyttleton (in this case its in your tab) and / or through Timaru and /or through Tauranga (in the latter case it would not be). All three ports have "Inland ports" in Rolleston.

    As well - how is A2's all important Daigou channel accounted for that way?

    As well - how do the numbers capture any IF channeled through other ports (like Port of Tauranga via Rolleston)?

    The tab shows big variations of something going through one particular port, but I have no idea what they mean in isolation for A2's business. I suspect nothing.
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 26-04-2019 at 03:57 PM.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  7. #12867
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,738

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Just wondering -

    did anybody ever manage to reconcile these "Lyttleton IF exports" with Synlait and / or Fonterra and / or Westland Milk's accounts? They all will ship some of their stuff through Lyttleton (in this case its in your tab) and / or through Timaru and /or through Tauranga (in the latter case it would not be). All three ports have "Inland ports" in Rolleston.

    As well - how is A2's all important Daigou channel accounted for that way?

    As well - how do the numbers capture any IF channeled through other ports (like Port of Tauranga via Rolleston)?

    The tab shows big variations of something going through one particular port, but I have no idea what they mean in isolation for A2's business. I suspect nothing.
    Spoil sport

    But like you I have no idea what the numbers are ..whether it’s value or weight or what. But HUGE numbers though eh BlackPeter

    One thing the shipments over last July/Dec were up 40% on pcp and A2 baby stuff sales were up 45% in same period so whatever the shipping numbers are they seem to be some sort of lead indicator of what A2 growth might be,

    And H2 growth is even stronger ...WOW WOW WOW WOW
    Last edited by winner69; 26-04-2019 at 04:07 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #12868
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    1,866

    Default

    Why A2 is crushing the competition in China
    https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...ition-in-china

    From TOBIAS YAO - Wilson Asset Management

    I have just returned from China, looking at how Australian goods such as infant formula are sold and marketed, given the strong Chinese demand for such products. Being able to speak with shop attendants in their native language let me get to the source of information. In this wire, I share the key takeaways.

  9. #12869
    Legend peat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    Whanganui, New Zealand.
    Posts
    6,435

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by silu View Post
    Why A2 is crushing the competition in China
    https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...ition-in-china

    From TOBIAS YAO - Wilson Asset Management

    I have just returned from China, looking at how Australian goods such as infant formula are sold and marketed, given the strong Chinese demand for such products. Being able to speak with shop attendants in their native language let me get to the source of information. In this wire, I share the key takeaways.
    totally talking his own book
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  10. #12870
    Outside thinking.
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    2,563

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Left field View Post
    March IF exports ex Lyttelton up an amazing 250% on prior period. (Remember ATM's additional Marketing spending will be kicking in too.)

    YTD up 51.7%. as posted on HC.

    Details in this pic;
    Attachment 10501


    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Just wondering -
    The tab shows big variations of something going through one particular port, but I have no idea what they mean in isolation for A2's business. I suspect nothing.
    BP as always it is a tab risky to read too much into figures.

    My key take away is that it is yet another indication that ATM is making huge gains with its IF (with associated high margins) and all is going to plan. However, until the company issues an update it is only an indication.

    To answer some of your Q's:
    - The figs are tonnes of IF exported. They do not represent $'s, so we wait for ATM's details to confirm margins/profitability etc.
    - Remember that ATM has negotiated a better supply deal with SML and these tonnages will benefit.
    - The figs may include some SML branded exports, but as SML have not got Chinese accreditation, these are likely to be slim
    - The figs do not provide destinations, however whether it be Australia or China the results still are a boost to ATM. ATM has 30% share of the Australian IF market, but much of that goes via the Diagou channel to China.
    - The figs give a level of support/justification to recent SP rises.
    - The figs also give credibility to the fact that ATM is gaining market share in China.

    So the figs represent a lot more than 'nothing', they indicate that ATM is on course to reaching its market guidance (and more.) But if you want to dismiss them, that's fine with me.

    As usual DYOR.
    Last edited by Leftfield; 26-04-2019 at 04:37 PM.

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •