ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[mfd]

In theory I don't see why saying you are shorting a stock is any different to someone saying they are buying a stock, which would not be considered out of place in a thread. Making up facts to get a reaction is a little different. Happy holder here, last buy in the 8 something's, never really considered the recent froth to be in the bank but I'm confident we'll get back into the teens in due course. I'm trying to keep away from tax on trading so not worrying about short term trends.

[bull....]

just to clarify i was not making stuff up to wind people up , people got wound up because they dont like what they heard.

the technicals show a clear rsi divergence on the weeklies in early march which anyone who cares to research is a warning sign of weakness this was followed by a macd crossover in march and death crosses as well in april on the dailies.

the hourly charts show bollinger expanding now from the consolidation and my modified 9,18 etc death crosses on the hrlies as well also the breakdown from 11.30 support adds to short term bearish.

long term still above the 200d so bullish

if you dont like my take on the technicals chart dont read it - simple

[bull....]

baa baa and anyone else who likes t/a at tradingview there is a big community of people who post charts on all sorts of financial instruments.

[Baa_Baa]

Investment strategies is a separate section of this forum and is the right place to discuss varying investment strategies in my opinion.

It's not an investment strategy, it's a trading strategy on ShareTrader.co.nz. The best place to discuss a trading strategy is on the company thread that the trade is being carried out on, in close to real time to give it meaning and relevance. Just because it's a short trade doesn't diminish it's value for discussion than an long trade otherwise would. Seems to me things have got a bit precious around here. I get it, that when people are holding underwater positions, it grates to have anyone that had the skills, foresight or whatever to get out or make money from it and talk about it! Some people enjoy reminding others when they bailed at the top, regardless of how low the SP eventually gets, with little thought for who might be hurting. Keeping an open mind and not marrying our shares and long investment strategies in a volatile share that has no returns to shareholders other than capital gains, could save a heap of capital and maybe even help us learn a few new tricks when there's an ill wind blowing our SP's backwards.

[Ggcc]

Rather than a ta perspective let’s focus on what 1.4 billion turnover will be for the share price FY 2019.? Giving a profit of let’s say 400 million due to increased marketing expenses......... 800-900 million in the bank. My mouth is frothing. Let’s be positive rather than focusing on the negative. I am a happy holder

[Joshuatree]

baa baa and anyone else who likes t/a at tradingview there is a big community of people who post charts on all sorts of financial instruments.

Your posting adds depth, variety and content bull. I Like your transparency and shorting is just another legit play in this mkt and we all need to be a little savvy and accepting about this , just like T/A and F/A does. Shorting aint dirty, ramping can be though but thats a another subject.

[couta1]

Your posting adds depth, variety and content bull. I Like your transparency and shorting is just another legit play in this mkt and we all need to be a little savvy and accepting about this , just like T/A and F/A does. Shorting aint dirty, ramping can be though but thats a another subject.

Shorting may be legal but it's not a strategy I like or would participate in personally. There is plenty of dirty play going on with this stock mainly in the form of manipulation by the big boys and I guess small fry shorters just help them to achieve their purposes. Anyway I reckon ATM is a ripe takeover target, especially as the SP continues to fall, in that case even the big boys may end up with egg on their faces.

[winner69]

Rather than a ta perspective let’s focus on what 1.4 billion turnover will be for the share price FY 2019.? Giving a profit of let’s say 400 million due to increased marketing expenses......... 800-900 million in the bank. My mouth is frothing. Let’s be positive rather than focusing on the negative. I am a happy holder

Getting a bit excited there ggcc I reckon


Firstly your $1.4 billion +52% on this year) a bit ambitious but heck we need a bit of hype around here to cheer us up eh


Even if it was $1.4 billion and they achieved the touted 30% ebitda margin npat after tax will be about $300m or an eps of eps of 40 cents


So a share price of $11 odd today still on forward looking PE of 28


My mouth isn't frothing but what the heck do I know anyway


Hope your post gets punters excited and they start buying again ...we need a bit of help eh

[davflaws]

No don't go, it's great to hear about trading strategies that make money in both directions. It is a skill to be using the instruments that are available and completely legitimate.

The thread started to get tetchy when Bull was invited to post a chart showing the TA phenomena he referred to. I have no problem with him shorting and or crowing, but if anyone makes a claim about bolly bands or topless mermaids wearing death crosses it would be good to have a chart so I know what they are talking about.

[Joshuatree]

Have borrowed this(not shorted from another public forum, mainly UBS content posted by someone beginning with K and ending with W,Thanks.

UBS analysts remain optimistic about a2 Milk’s outlook following strong gains on China’s infant formula bestseller list, even as prices fall. According to UBS data, the company saw its first like-for-like price decline since 2016 in the second quarter. For the period, like-for-like prices fell about 5 per cent, although this could be because the company was launching a new label, resulting in clearance activity of the old label.
“We believe this was attributable to discounting ahead of the new label product launched at the end of the second quarter,” the analysts said. “Anecdotally pricing on new label product has begun to recover.”

The analysts remained optimistic about the company’s medium term outlook, but left a neutral rating on the stock ahead of a re-rate by a new covering analyst. “We continue to believe the medium term outlook for a2 Milk remains robust, with our recent visit to China reaffirming this,” the analysts said.

A2 Platinum is now is now ranked seventh as a company in online share of the top 25 formula bestsellers. While the results for the second quarter were promising, the analysts warned that overall, the price premium of imported brands in China over domestic ones appears to be narrowing and is now at about 11 per cent, compared to 50 per cent in January 2016. Still, imported brands have continued to increase their share of total online stock keeping units, now at 83 per cent, compared to 75 per cent a year ago.

“The ‘easy ride’ of multinationals might be coming to an end, with Nestlé and Danone losing momentum on bestseller lists and a2 Milk’s pricing down for the first time in two years, ahead of the new label launch,” the analysts said. “We think the market is currently not pricing in any downside risk to the long-term profitability of the multinationals in the Chinese IMF market.”