ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Beagle]

Latest announcements suggests F18 EPS will be ~25 cents

Does this lower f19 expectations as well

I think you're possibly being a little conservative with FY18 eps. What's clear at this stage is they're prepared to invest serious money to grow the brand and company over time. Short term pain for long term gain ?
Analysts quite possibly will pull back their FY19 estimates a bit.

[winner69]

I think you're possibly being a little conservative with FY18 eps. What's clear at this stage is they're prepared to invest serious money to grow the brand and company over time. Short term pain for long term gain ?
Analysts quite possibly will pull back their FY19 estimates a bit.

Got my 25 cents from their sales and margin guidance and bumped marketing up to $82m and you get about $183n npat.

On their guidance you can’t get to 30 cents but as sb9 has reiterated several times today ‘under promise over deliver’ is their game.

Pretty big numbers whatever

[Beagle]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/a2-mil...se-jr-p-215671

Contains significant commentary and explanation around the rebranding of infant formula and its short term effect on sales. Serious investors should simply pay the $35 for behind the paywall access for the month to read it. I am sticking with 40 cps for FY19.

[longy]

If it went under $10 then for sure but I bought 12k shares yesterday instead (Ouch)

I could not resisted that and topped up some at 11.14 and some more at 10.39

We will see eh.

[hardt]

Had a fun time reading some of these reactions to a theoretical 5% miss on revenue consensus ( if they don't outperform their own guidance yet again )
Consensus for FY18 revenue used to be 750, bumped to 800, 820, 880 and latest leap up to ~950 was shown to be mostly on point, even if a part of the market was expecting upgrade cycles to continue this is solid announcement showing incredible growth on last year and continued market share growth in China and fresh milk in Aus..

Time is a friend to A2, 950m will be a distant memory come 2020... HODL

Come back in a few months.

[JeremyALD]

Let's remind us they are debt free and have a huge amount of savings too.

[Ggcc]

Well I am hoping that the shares I bought at $10.50 was the right decision..... $11.47 looks like the start tomorrow as it finished at au$10.54 tonight. Today even though I lost money I gained some back in this transaction... But I thought $10.50 was a bargain

[winner69]

Let's remind us they are debt free and have a huge amount of savings too.

Yep, $240m as at end of December .......probably $350m odd by June

That’s 50 cents a share in cash

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12052708

Pay special attention to what well regarded Harbour Asset management's analyst has to say about the short term sales impact of the rebranding is.

I think the market has well and truly overreacted to a minor sales expectation miss directly caused by this one off rebranding.

No worries, back to $13 as soon as this is understood better by analysts and investors.

For the time poor: "Harbour's Rimer said that had it not been for the rebranding, a2 Milk's projection would have beaten market expectations "handsomely".

[winner69]

That Herald article - The Harbour man might be right but the Devon man thinks a little differently -


A2's Milk's share price was sold down to a similar degree in March when news broke that international food giant Nestle had launched an A1 beta free infant formula in China, and today's price action may have been linked to that, said Devon Funds Management's managing director Slade Robertson.

"The announcement by a2 Milk today highlights that the competitive environment for this business has deteriorated as evidenced by the additional spend that it requires for marketing their product in China," Robertson said