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  1. #8581
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Devon entitled to their point of view. Harbour analyst just came back from a filed trip to China and I posted their report the other day and they are very happy with what they've seen on the ground.
    Some of the extra marketing spend might be tied in with the new packaging. Harbour analyst said in behind the paywall article that the annual marketing spend was in line with their projections and forecast. I think Harbour are the ones doing the legwork here and putting boots on the ground with multiple trips to China whereas the Devon guy with a vastly inferior return on their funds is just joining what dots he sees from a distance.
    Possibly a bit of confirmation bias from both analysts but I'd back Harbour over Devon any day of the week.
    Last edited by Beagle; 16-05-2018 at 06:04 PM.
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  2. #8582
    Senior Member hardt's Avatar
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    Increased Marketing spend is not, in no way a sign of deteriorating competitive environment... just about every year A2 have increased marketing spend over expectations to obtain a greater share of the market.
    Perhaps when you want to keep the growth at anywhere near these levels you might need to market the hell out of it.

    We will let Devon carry on underperforming.
    Last edited by hardt; 16-05-2018 at 06:47 PM.

  3. #8583
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    A very good reminder over teh past couple of days on why I am not a trader. i couldnt pick yesterdays highs, couldnt pick todays lows. Had a couple of bids in for more ATM and SML but neither wefe met. Never mind. Still happy with overall holding and profit to date and happy to continue holding

  4. #8584
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Yep, $240m as at end of December .......probably $350m odd by June

    That’s 50 cents a share in cash
    So to buy 50c in cash per share you have to lay out $11.30 (market closing price today). From a strict cash acquisition perspective, that sounds like a terrible deal.

    And of course the reason A2 are 'debt free' is that they have only recently transitioned from a loss making start up. Loss making start ups are always 'debt free', because there isn't a snowballs chance in hell of any bank lending them any money!

    SNOOPY
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  5. #8585
    Senior Member hardt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    So to buy 50c in cash per share you have to lay out $11.30 (market closing price today). From a strict cash acquisition perspective, that sounds like a terrible deal.

    And of course the reason A2 are 'debt free' is that they have only recently transitioned from a loss making start up. Loss making start ups are always 'debt free', because there isn't a snowballs chance in hell of any bank lending them any money!

    SNOOPY
    This loss maker somehow made a profit for 7 out of the last 10 years in business...
    Enough funds and investors were backing A2 to allow for ample amounts of debt if required... not sure what you are on about there either.
    Last edited by hardt; 17-05-2018 at 04:26 AM.

  6. #8586
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Devon entitled to their point of view. Harbour analyst just came back from a filed trip to China and I posted their report the other day and they are very happy with what they've seen on the ground.
    Some of the extra marketing spend might be tied in with the new packaging. Harbour analyst said in behind the paywall article that the annual marketing spend was in line with their projections and forecast. I think Harbour are the ones doing the legwork here and putting boots on the ground with multiple trips to China whereas the Devon guy with a vastly inferior return on their funds is just joining what dots he sees from a distance.
    Possibly a bit of confirmation bias from both analysts but I'd back Harbour over Devon any day of the week.
    Beagle did Harbour do lots of field trips to check out CBL before they lost $50m of their investors money? I treat all analysts with a grain of salt - some people are good and others aren't. Harbours performance has been good mainly because of A2 and one swallow, although it has been a big swallow, does not make a summer to blindly hang my hat on.

  7. #8587
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Weird thing about yesterday’s announcement was that there wasn’t anything really new - they had said at half year sales were going well, margins in H2 would be about the same as H1 and they would spend heaps more on marketing.

    They did feel that analysts, like Sharetrader cheerleaders, were getting a bit too excited and so put some colour around the numbers to temper that enthusiasm

    No surprises (to me anyway) - fits with my $180m to $190m npat forecast.

    Interesting day though
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #8588
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    Has anyone noticed that Ballamys also took a 10% hit yesterday. This stock has often been compared to Ballamys when charts were involved. Just interested and curious as to why they also went down so fast yesterday....

  9. #8589
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    So to buy 50c in cash per share you have to lay out $11.30 (market closing price today). From a strict cash acquisition perspective, that sounds like a terrible deal.

    And of course the reason A2 are 'debt free' is that they have only recently transitioned from a loss making start up. Loss making start ups are always 'debt free', because there isn't a snowballs chance in hell of any bank lending them any money!

    SNOOPY
    Hey Snoopy, I guess you would have downgraded your $3 value for this stock after yesterday?

  10. #8590
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    It's how it goes in the infant formula sector - sell down of BAL as market thought "BAL growth may be slowing too". Not that anyone's growth is slowing at all, just a few people expecting greater rev for second half for ATM. Still exceptional growth and huge potential going forward. This is the share market after all, take the opportunity and buy. This is surely one of the best companies with the most potential on the NZX and ASX. I can't read the future but I'm sure the current share price will look very reasonable in a few months and very cheap in a few years,
    Last edited by NZSilver; 17-05-2018 at 08:20 AM.

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