ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Bjauck]

Trailing PE is 40 but Peat, take a peak into the future and the forward PE might only be 20 and then like a budgie it is still cheep cheep
The thing with great global brands growth is that they just keep GROWING !

The hound is like the cat that got the A2 cream!

[peat]

The hound is like the cat that got the A2 cream!

as long as he drinks it quickly coz cream goes off after a while

and I'm not suggesting doom and gloom , just thinking that maybe its time for a breather on this stock at these levels.

[Beagle]

$5.19 today / up 5.70% in one day. Noice....

$5.20 on the close so up 5.9% but it beat average analyst expectations by 14.4% so a further rerating in the short term wouldn't surprise me and then there's obviously ongoing growth ahead. I'm expecting N.Z. and Australian analyst upgrades on the back of this result.

12.7 cps well ahead of average 4traders analyst expectations for FY17 of 11.1 cps.

[Hoop]

My broker said that they value the shares around $5 what are your guys thoughts?
That was late last week.

ATM has grown since last week so your broker's price needs updating.

Disc ..back in

[Oliver Mander]

The cat is enjoying his cream on this one...

Good to see the growth, and nice that its "disciplined" as well - increasing revenue translating nicely to earnings growth. Will be VERY interested in revenue predictions for the next 12 months, and whether there is a significant increase in fixed costs as a result of it. The high PE is factoring in some big expectations...so it needs to at least meet it.

Nonetheless, while there is a distinct risk profile, today is a good day.

Disc: happy holder :-), and not selling yet...

[BlackPeter]

as long as he drinks it quickly coz cream goes off after a while

and I'm not suggesting doom and gloom , just thinking that maybe its time for a breather on this stock at these levels.

I guess you never know, and they do happen. But waiting for breathers with this stock can be a dear experience (considering all the lost opportunity cost). I talk from experience ...

Discl: hold some (but wish I would hold more ...);

[sb9]

OK I'll stick my head our and do a forecast.....EPS in FY17 grew 188% over FY16 to 12.7c.
If we assume slower 100% EPS growth in FY18 to (say) 25c. (could be more with share buy-back??) at a P/E of 30 we get a forward value of $7.50
Looking good to this happy holder......

I'm actually thinking the EPS will more than double this FY. Reason being more production facility being added by Synlait through the plant in Akl along with further additions to the existing capacity in Canterbury.

I'm picking NPAT for FY18 to be around 27.5c based on NPAT of close to $200mln. By which time I expect the buyback to be completed and that will add bit more to the EPS.
So, based on 27.5c EPS and apply say PE of 30 we're looking at a valuation target of $8.25 and if market is generous and attributes the current 40 PE multiple, that gives us $11.00 which is best case scenario.
All in all we should be close to the $10 mark if all goes as per plan and my short term target for ASM time in Nov is at least $6.00.

Pls DYOR...

Disc: was tempted to sell a small portion y'day but resisted the urge strongly and after looking through the numbers bit more thoroughly and will continue to hold...

[Beagle]

I'm actually thinking the EPS will more than double this FY. Reason being more production facility being added by Synlait through the plant in Akl along with further additions to the existing capacity in Canterbury.

I'm picking NPAT for FY18 to be around 27.5c based on NPAT of close to $200mln. By which time I expect the buyback to be completed and that will add bit more to the EPS.
So, based on 27.5c EPS and apply say PE of 30 we're looking at a valuation target of $8.25 and if market is generous and attributes the current 40 PE multiple, that gives us $11.00 which is best case scenario.
All in all we should be close to the $10 mark if all goes as per plan and my short term target for ASM time in Nov is at least $6.00.

Pls DYOR...

Disc: was tempted to sell a small portion y'day but resisted the urge strongly and after looking through the numbers bit more thoroughly and will continue to hold...

Bullish post, I like it and hope you're right mate. It will be interesting to see where broker valuations are at once they have updated them.

[Leftfield]

Thanks for your thoughts on a fwd SP sb9. Much appreciated..... I was feeling lonely at $7.50!!

The November update is going to be very interesting.

[777]

$6 by November. The way they are going this morning it will be $6 by 2pm today. Sure is a lot of interest.