ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Ggcc]

I remember when XRO went from $45 to $12, talk from all and sundry on here at the time was it was finished and would never climb to those heights again, well the rest is history, it left the NZX at $25NZ and is currently trading at over $100AU. A2 is having its annual drop aided by a blip downgrade and is sitting on a huge cash pile, those who think it has had its day need to study stories like the XRO one, quite frankly I've heard it all before and have been in the middle of it before and I'm not keen on repeating past mistakes by being shaken out.

He who laughs last laughs longest..........

[Beagle]

Long term it will bounce back. I've taken the opportunity this evening to reflect on the level of pain shareholders who bought recently must be feeling so as my views of ATM have already been clearly articulated out of respect for holders there's no need for me to comment any further until we see what their interim result looks like in early 2021.

[James108]

Beagle says it is expensive based on no growth this year so sp may fall. But then will it be cheap based on some growth the year after? So confusing valueing shares.

[Balance]

Beagle says it is expensive based on no growth this year so sp may fall. But then will it be cheap based on some growth the year after? So confusing valueing shares.

Markets attempt to value companies & shares based upon long term projections.

There are investors who do invest with that long term horizon but the overwhelming number of market players focus on short term developments & news.

Therein lies the volatilities, risks and opportunities.

[Leftfield]

He who laughs last laughs longest..........

Very true.

When viewing the current SP blip some posters forget that long term holders have had over 8 years of compounding SP appreciation at around 100% pa.

8 years (or so) of compounding 100% pa gives holders a huge buffer to weather any storms. Going forward, even if that return falls to 50% or 25%, the compounding effect will still yield a much higher av return than the NZX50 (IMHO)

For new holders at current SP's the picture is more tough (but again long term holders have had periods of similar drama throughout their holding.) This hiccup will pass. Uncertainty is 'Business as Usual' for investors.

The long term picture is;

- ATM provides high margin returns in a very basic needed commodity segment (food/drink/nutrition)
- ATM is outperforming its competitors and has a proven value proposition
- The Daigou distribution channel may be suffering in the short term, but it was by nature opportunistic and is rapidly being replaced better - Channels ie 5000 new Mother and Baby stores in China.
- ATM is well diversified internationally
- ATM is still sitting on a huge cash fund
- CEO Geoff has a long record of 'under promising' and 'over delivering'

- The biggest possible negative IMHO is possible difficulties with the incoming new CEO. Shorters will play this to the max and weak hands will lose.

Long term it will bounce back. I've taken the opportunity this evening to reflect on the level of pain shareholders who bought recently must be feeling so as my views of ATM have already been clearly articulated out of respect for holders there's no need for me to comment any further until we see what their interim result looks like in early 2021.

Well said Beagle.

Let's all sit back and let this play out. (FWIW I'm much more concerned about the unknowns of the USA election)

GLH and DYOR.

[Sideshow Bob]

New substantial holder by the looks of it....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/360722

[tomm]

New substantial holder by the looks of it....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/360722

It is proven the shake and coup of the shares.


They sold:
Date of relevant event: 30 June 2020Date this disclosure made: 2 July 2020
Pendal Group Limited
For last disclosure,—(a) total number held in class: 38,896,079(b) total in class: 739,830,151(c) total percentage held in class: 5.26%
For current holding after ceasing to have substantial holding,—(a) total number held in class: 34,462,527(b) total in class: 739,830,151(c) total percentage held in class: 4.66%

And they have been quietly buying back all of their shares.
Date this disclosure made: 30 September 2020Date on which substantial holding began: 28 September 2020
Pendal Group Limited
For this disclosure,—(a) total number held in class: 38,355,845(b) total in class:742,588,971(c) total percentage held in class: 5.165%

I feel sorry to those whom sold recently .

[bull....]

Very true.

When viewing the current SP blip some posters forget that long term holders have had over 8 years of compounding SP appreciation at around 100% pa.

8 years (or so) of compounding 100% pa gives holders a huge buffer to weather any storms. Going forward, even if that return falls to 50% or 25%, the compounding effect will still yield a much higher av return than the NZX50 (IMHO)

For new holders at current SP's the picture is more tough (but again long term holders have had periods of similar drama throughout their holding.) This hiccup will pass. Uncertainty is 'Business as Usual' for investors.

The long term picture is;

- ATM provides high margin returns in a very basic needed commodity segment (food/drink/nutrition)
- ATM is outperforming its competitors and has a proven value proposition
- The Daigou distribution channel may be suffering in the short term, but it was by nature opportunistic and is rapidly being replaced better - Channels ie 5000 new Mother and Baby stores in China.
- ATM is well diversified internationally
- ATM is still sitting on a huge cash fund
- CEO Geoff has a long record of 'under promising' and 'over delivering'

- The biggest possible negative IMHO is possible difficulties with the incoming new CEO. Shorters will play this to the max and weak hands will lose.

you fail too mention how the effects of negative compounding affect returns on an investment. currently a2 is providing negative compounding returns to long term holders

[Cyclical]

Long term it will bounce back. I've taken the opportunity this evening to reflect on the level of pain shareholders who bought recently must be feeling so as my views of ATM have already been clearly articulated out of respect for holders there's no need for me to comment any further until we see what their interim result looks like in early 2021.

Don't make promises you can't deliver on now Beagle

This place wouldn't be what it is without counter viewpoints, whether dedicated holders want to hear them or not. I'm back on the board with this stock in a very small way, but I'm not intending to hide under a rock, block out the noise and pretend everything is just swell and that I'll double my money in 12 months. Comments like yours feed into my decision process to help me determine if I invest (or speculate, as the case may be), at what entry point and to what extent. Keep them coming.

[tomm]

It is proven the shake and coup of the shares. Insto's and shorters. As I mentioned before The Insto's invest alots of money and ATM doesn't give a divident, this is how they make money.


They sold:
Date of relevant event: 30 June 2020Date this disclosure made:2 July 2020
Pendal Group Limited
For last disclosure,—(a) total number held in class: 38,896,079(b) total in class: 739,830,151(c) total percentage held in class: 5.26%
For current holding after ceasing to have substantial holding,—(a) total number held in class: 34,462,527(b) total in class: 739,830,151(c) total percentage held in class: 4.66%

And they have been quietly buying back all of their shares.
Date this disclosure made: 30 September 2020Date on which substantial holding began: 28 September 2020
Pendal Group Limited
For this disclosure,—(a) total number held in class: 38,355,845(b) total in class:742,588,971(c) total percentage held in class: 5.165%

I feel sorry to those whom sold recently .