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  1. #18181
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    I can only relay my understanding from talking to a produce exporter to China - meat, seafood, fruits and honey - their export prices to China are in US$ and they will feel the full impact once their forward cover runs out.
    Please guys lets not over analyse things . ATM did well at 0.75 USD to NZD rates also as its just one of the variables in the mix . But at present the logistics of one of the main legs of their business is under stress due to disruptions mainly because of Covid situation . So if Covid recovery theme is the flavour of the next 6 months then ATM recovery should also be on the horizon ...rather then the gloom and doom stories coming out from every where .

    Someone recommends buying KFL at almost 10% premium to NAV as he likes their exceptional stock picks but berates one of their main picks ATM , suggesting it can depreciate further 40% from its present price . To me it seems very contradictory views on the same website

    Geo political reasons got discussed in a NZH article also quoting Chairman in a interview after the ASM .

    Dairy exports are NZ's bread and butter with China being most important buyer / consumer .

    I think I will grant our leadership respect enough that they will do utmost not to disrupt it in anyway ...especially at this time .

    So for me A2 suffering Ozzy wine fate chance is very very little . Though people are talking about it including Chairman by trying to emphasis time and again that they are a NZ company and trying to make that more obvious by having new manufacturing facility in NZ too , owned by ATM .

    All companies go through challenging times ...ATM is going thru one ...mainly due to Covid disruptions which highlighted again the importance of daigou channels to them ....many thought they replaced that completely ...but actually its still very important .

    So why cant we put ATM stock as Covid recovery stock ?

  2. #18182
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    NZ leadership is threading the needle.. the geo risk to the stock has so far been low. dont expect 13/60 to be tested for long if ever if the numbers are good.

  3. #18183
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    Management recently highlighted a weaker NZD / USD as being favourable as all the China trade is conducted in USD, they've also stated previously it's the most important currency pair for the business second the AUD/NZD it only makes sense the opposite is unfavorable. I'm not saying the impact is crippling or anything but just another headwind a2 management need to sail against.

  4. #18184
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    OK I am starting to get this. If you make a 6K to 8k loss on a short term TPW trade you can sell an equivalent amount of A2 shares such that your profit on the A2 share sale exactly cancels out your TPW trade loss dollars and you have a tax free capital injection for Christmas. Plus you can bank the TPW dividend which will already have tax deducted from it. But where does buying more A2 shares at a lower price come into the picture?

    Sorry don't have any TPW shares I can offer you. Never held and with all the rag tag of assets they own I have found it difficult to analyse.

    SNOOPY
    Hi Snoopy, something like that, but don't want to bore people on the a2 thread with my tax obligations. The profits I make is not just from a2 but all companies I buy into. I can explain it in more detail at the next sharetrader meeting or at the fortnightly sharetrading meetings we have with the 'Auckland Meetup Group'. As for buying more a2 shares at the lower end of the cycle, I just can't help myself....gambler.... and when they go up again.......more profit
    Last edited by see weed; 21-11-2020 at 07:15 PM.

  5. #18185
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    Quote Originally Posted by Getty View Post
    Basic Question.

    If ya cant get ya opium through ya daigou channel, wouldnt ya just get it online, or down at ya flaming local stockist???
    Next basic question.
    If you knew you sold X amount of product previously into a market, through daigou/backdoor/smuggling, and you knew that channel had become compromised, would you just hope it comes right, or promote the other channels into that market, or find other markets for X+, that may have a similar predisposition to the product, eg; Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Phillipines?

    Doey, not hui.

  6. #18186
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    From Kingfish announcements it appears as if they are still buying / accumulating / taking a punt on A2

    Looks like they about a million more shares than six months ago
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

  7. #18187
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    From Kingfish announcements it appears as if they are still buying / accumulating / taking a punt on A2
    Looks like they about a million more shares than six months ago
    I take that as a positive Winner, been a bit of drama on this thread the last week while I was away..... sad to see Couta silenced.

    The shorts are still active and looks like the SP is going going to be depressed until the new CEO is entrenched and reports positive progress.

    Screen Shot ATM 2020-11-23 at 10.53.06 AM.jpg

    While the long term picture is still intact, I post less on ATM these days as my 'free hold' shares aren't typical and I feel for those being hit by the current uncertainty.

    40% of my portfolio and still a hold IMHO ... Kingfish or shorters aren't prying any from my tight grip.

  8. #18188
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    Upsetting New Zealand’s most significant trading partner seems like a very silly thing to do. So, why, Chris Trotter asks, did Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta do it?

    https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/1...ly-thing-do-so
    bull
    One step ahead of the herd

  9. #18189
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    Upsetting New Zealand’s most significant trading partner seems like a very silly thing to do. So, why, Chris Trotter asks, did Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta do it?

    https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/1...ly-thing-do-so
    Like becoming Nuclear Free really - at some point you, as a country, stand up and be counted for what you believe rather than meekly say 'yes sir, please sir, whatever you say sir'.
    NZ tries to stand-up but not stand too tall and be chopped down.

  10. #18190
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    Upsetting New Zealand’s most significant trading partner seems like a very silly thing to do. So, why, Chris Trotter asks, did Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta do it?

    https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/1...ly-thing-do-so
    It is quite ironic that NZ joined the UK and the other five eyes nations in insisting that China uphold the Joint Declaration Treaty with the UK on Hong Kong. The UK itself has threatened to disregard its Treaty with European Countries if it becomes inconvenient.

    Why is it called the Five Eyes and not the Ten Eyes? Is it because each of the five nations is one-eyed?
    Last edited by Bjauck; 23-11-2020 at 10:29 AM.

  11. #18191
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    From Kingfish announcements it appears as if they are still buying / accumulating / taking a punt on A2

    Looks like they about a million more shares than six months ago
    U sure have a very keen eye buddy . Last NAV report had it at 14 % up from 13% on last week while price went down slightly ...clearly shows they adding to their position .

    Many have great regard for the Kingfish portfolio and its outperformance as its price keeps going up just for its 2% divvy policy , total disconnect at the moment to its intrinsic worth . IMHO this story will not end well ....I mean KFL SP ...not their outperformance . ATM is their Top pick for next year boost to NAV after FPH / MFT having done a lot this year !!

  12. #18192
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bjauck View Post
    It is quite ironic that NZ joined the UK and the other five eyes nations in insisting that China uphold the Joint Declaration Treaty with the UK on Hong Kong. The UK itself has threatened to disregard its Treaty with European Countries if it becomes inconvenient.

    Why is it called the Five Eyes and not the Ten Eyes? Is it because each of the five nations is one-eyed?
    And many countries (not sure if NZ was one of them) called the UK out for that.
    Note - the UK threatened but hasn't yet, China threatened and has.

  13. #18193
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    Quote Originally Posted by dobby41 View Post
    And many countries (not sure if NZ was one of them) called the UK out for that.
    Note - the UK threatened but hasn't yet, China threatened and has.
    Many parties and people within the UK also called the UK government out on it too. The British treaty breaking provisions are in a bill (Internal Market Bill) that is currently going through the UK Houses of Parliament. The UK government (run by right-winger Boris Johnson) fully intends the Treaty breaking provisions to become law. I think this threat and intention are enough for the British Government (and Five Eyes) moral high-ground to be undermined when it comes to the attitude to International Treaties and law.

    EU launches legal action against UK over controversial Brexit bill
    https://www.euronews.com/2020/10/01/watch-live-von-der-leyen-makes-brexit-statement-after-uk-mps-approve-controversial-bill
    Last edited by Bjauck; 23-11-2020 at 12:28 PM.

  14. #18194
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    Quote Originally Posted by alokdhir View Post
    U sure have a very keen eye buddy . Last NAV report had it at 14 % up from 13% on last week while price went down slightly ...clearly shows they adding to their position .

    Many have great regard for the Kingfish portfolio and its outperformance as its price keeps going up just for its 2% divvy policy , total disconnect at the moment to its intrinsic worth . IMHO this story will not end well ....I mean KFL SP ...not their outperformance . ATM is their Top pick for next year boost to NAV after FPH / MFT having done a lot this year !!
    at June 30th A2 was 14.6% of KFL holdings about $60m at share rice of $20.19

    The fund is 11% larger now and even though A2 share price was $14.54 A2 was reported as 14% (probably 13.6% in reality).

    Sort of says that they now have 1.3 million more shares than at June 30th and about $63m invested in A2

    Strong support / belief for/in the A2 story and its long term future.

    As couts say its the 87% real investors like Kingfish slowly increasing their overall share
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

  15. #18195
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    geo risk increasing, remember our politicians are new at the job... i dont think they are going to rock the boat though..(hey arnt that silly are they) , next report is awaited.. Kingfish have been done well .. so far.

    so much for no likely hood of china doing to NZ what its done to Aus.
    Last edited by Waltzingironmansinlgescul; 24-11-2020 at 06:06 AM.

  16. #18196
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    A2 liquid UHT milk now launched in China via JD Mall and T mall. See link here.

    Good to see this strategy to diversify away from IF powder and extend market penetration into other age groups.

    I stand to be corrected, but understand the A2 UHT milk is being sourced ex Aus (effectively broadening distribution channels into China as well.)
    Last edited by Left field; 24-11-2020 at 10:32 AM.

  17. #18197
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    More Competition


    Keytone Dairy (ASX:KTD) is pleased to announce it has received a materially increased sales forecast from Nouriz (Shanghai) Fine Food Co., Ltd (“Nouriz China”) for the manufacture of Nouriz China’s private label whole and skim milk powder into China for calendar year 2021.



    Nouriz China has provided Keytone with a materially increased sales forecast, up by 24 per cent for the next calendar year, compared with the prior 12 months to October 2020. The growth comes on the back of:

    a significantly increased sales forecast received from Walmart China (announced to the ASX on 24 September 2020) of NZD $7.2m, 257% larger than the 12 months of Walmart sales to September 2020 and 3.8x larger than the prior Walmart China forecast provided; and
    a key contract win with leading New Zealand grocer Foodstuffs for the manufacture of their whole and skim milk powders, forecast to be worth NZD $7.1m over two years.

  18. #18198
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    Competition isn't necessarily a bad thing, it shows there is significant demand for the product(s).

  19. #18199
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    Quote Originally Posted by daveypnz View Post
    Competition isn't necessarily a bad thing, it shows there is significant demand for the product(s).
    Unless someone else is moving in on your patch.

  20. #18200
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gunner View Post
    Unless someone else is moving in on your patch.
    We talk about demand but its market share that really counts

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