ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[percy]

Crikey! At current prices ATM now a '30 bagger' on my original purchase price at 53c!

Attachment 10497

This doesn't include a few trades over the years to 'free-hold' my holding, and ATM remains at 60% of my portfolio.

Absolutely fantastic.
Holding all the way.
Well done.

[nzsharetrade]

2.36% in one day, more than you'd make in a whole year with a one-year bank deposit. Still, I reckon this has pushed the limits (check the Bollinger) and expect a retreat/sideways shortly. Be nimble. A share that doesn't pay a dividend doesn't earn respect the from multitude of value/earnings investors on NZX (or in this case ASX as well), especially those who missed the latest run up, so run with the money and quit quickly when the money turns against you. Or just hold and ignore the gyrations as it settles and then moves to new highs.

ATM better not miss this FY report.

[nzsharetrade]

WOW you're on fire Coutts. I remember we talked about your entry in to BAL just before Easter at about $9.50.
The milk companies (excl SML) are on FIRE! Just as well Fisher funds have HEAPS so I'm happy too.

Hi Beagle

What is current PE? read some where talking about 80 something ...........

[BlackPeter]

Hi Beagle

What is current PE? read some where talking about 80 something ...........

Absolutely. You buy a share with a 2018 earnings of 27 cents for $16.48. Well, that's not a PE of 80 but above 60. Obviously - the only way to justify this share price is if you assume strong and sustainable growth for many years to come.

Put the historic CAGR of roughly 50 and the forecasted earnings into the Grahams formula, than the share is worth close to $50. But than - it is much easier to grow a company from $62 m revenue (in 2012) to $922m than to grow it in the same timeframe from $922m to $13.7b.

Which means - growth will inevitably slow down. The multi billion dollar question is - how fast and by how much? Depending on the answer to this question is ATM at the moment cheap or dear.

Ah yes - and don't forget - XRO has (based on 2018 earnings as well as on 2019 predictions) still a negative PE ... :

[whatsup]

$16-70 wow !

[winner69]

Absolutely. You buy a share with a 2018 earnings of 27 cents for $16.48. Well, that's not a PE of 80 but above 60. Obviously - the only way to justify this share price is if you assume strong and sustainable growth for many years to come.

Put the historic CAGR of roughly 50 and the forecasted earnings into the Grahams formula, than the share is worth close to $50. But than - it is much easier to grow a company from $62 m revenue (in 2012) to $922m than to grow it in the same timeframe from $922m to $13.7b.

Which means - growth will inevitably slow down. The multi billion dollar question is - how fast and by how much? Depending on the answer to this question is ATM at the moment cheap or dear.

Ah yes - and don't forget - XRO has (based on 2018 earnings as well as on 2019 predictions) still a negative PE ... :

Think long term BP

Todays price whatever it is is just one point in time as it inevitably climbs to $50 and then $100 and so on

A2 didn’t become the next Danone in a day

[sb9]

NZ export earnings at all-time high as China trade booms..

http://nzh.tw/12225438

[couta1]

Hey winner I got back on the BAL horse but still patiently waiting for a remount of this stallion(Probably around mid May I reckon) PS- Since 15/1/2015 only 15 posts on the ASX BAL thread and 4 of those are our recent ones winner now that's a dead horse aye.

[Leftfield]

NZ export earnings at all-time high as China trade booms..

http://nzh.tw/12225438

And this from Statistics NZ...... what's that saying? "A high tide floats all ships...especially the the good ship ATM."

Dairy products lead rise in exports

Exports of dairy products led the rise in exports, up $264 million (22 percent) to $1.4 billion in March 2019.
This rise was led by milk powder, up $226 million on a year earlier. The rise was quantity-led, but unit values also rose, up 6.5 percent on March 2018. There were contrasting movements in other dairy commodities: the value of cheese exports rose $42 million, while butter exports fell, also by $42 million.
Other main contributors to the rise in total exports were meat and edible offal, food preparations (a commodity group that includes infant formula), forestry products, and fruit.
Of our main export markets, China had the largest increase, up $522 million (52 percent) to $1.5 billion.
“Exports to China were the leading contributor to increases in several primary sector commodities including dairy products, beef, lamb, and forestry products,” Mr Islam said.

[BlackPeter]

Think long term BP

Todays price whatever it is is just one point in time as it inevitably climbs to $50 and then $100 and so on

A2 didn’t become the next Danone in a day

Long term thinking is good. Not so sure though the current price point is an optimal entry for the long term.

I suspect the ATM investors who spent in march 2018 $14 or so per share didn't feel that smug during the last 12 months when they could buy the same share for below $10 ... ;

Nice picture with Danone, but if you read the Danone story (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danone) - they didn't got big with one particular milk derivate ... and it still took them 100 years to reach $25b revenue. If ATM sticks with the current CAGR (justifying their share price) they should do that in 10 years! Yeah, right ... but hold on - maybe they could produce beer as well ?