ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[whatsup]

totally talking his own book

Peat, NAH wrong attack, A2M sells itself, cheers.

[BlackPeter]

BP as always it is a tab risky to read too much into figures.

My key take away is that it is yet another indication that ATM is making huge gains with its IF (with associated high margins) and all is going to plan. However, until the company issues an update it is only an indication.

To answer some of your Q's:
- The figs are tonnes of IF exported. They do not represent $'s, so we wait for ATM's details to confirm margins/profitability etc.
- Remember that ATM has negotiated a better supply deal with SML and these tonnages will benefit.
- The figs may include some SML branded exports, but as SML have not got Chinese accreditation, these are likely to be slim
- The figs do not provide destinations, however whether it be Australia or China the results still are a boost to ATM. ATM has 30% share of the Australian IF market, but much of that goes via the Diagou channel to China.
- The figs give a level of support/justification to recent SP rises.
- The figs also give credibility to the fact that ATM is gaining market share in China.

So the figs represent a lot more than 'nothing', they indicate that ATM is on course to reaching its market guidance (and more.) But if you want to dismiss them, that's fine with me.

As usual DYOR.

Hi Leftfield,

I think some of your interpretations are wrong.

Synlait actually owns the accreditations for the Chinese market, not A2. Synlait could (and might) well sell other (non A2) IF into China, but they definitely produce and sell A1 IF into other countries.

To the best of my knowledge - all IF A2 is shipping from New Zealand is produced by Synlait, however Synlait has as well a number of other (non - A2 ) customers.

As indicated - Synlait has easy access to at least three NZ ports (and they have all "Inland ports" in Rolleston - just a stone throw from the Synlait factory). I assume Synlait is using more than one of them.

There are other big IF producers in the South Island (Fonterra and Westland Milk). They will as well use all of these ports (depending on who offers the best deal).

Which means that there is no point in trying to correlate the IF shipments of one port (which could come from at least 4 different sources) with the assumed business of one particular brand.

[Leftfield]

That's fine BP, I stand by my key assumption....."So the figs represent a lot more than 'nothing', they indicate that ATM is on course to reaching its market guidance (and more.)"
But if you want to dismiss them, that's fine with me."

[winner69]

Hi Leftfield,

I think some of your interpretations are wrong.

Synlait actually owns the accreditations for the Chinese market, not A2. Synlait could (and might) well sell other (non A2) IF into China, but they definitely produce and sell A1 IF into other countries.

To the best of my knowledge - all IF A2 is shipping from New Zealand is produced by Synlait, however Synlait has as well a number of other (non - A2 ) customers.

As indicated - Synlait has easy access to at least three NZ ports (and they have all "Inland ports" in Rolleston - just a stone throw from the Synlait factory). I assume Synlait is using more than one of them.

There are other big IF producers in the South Island (Fonterra and Westland Milk). They will as well use all of these ports (depending on who offers the best deal).

Which means that there is no point in trying to correlate the IF shipments of one port (which could come from at least 4 different sources) with the assumed business of one particular brand.

Correlation

There is between half yearly growth in those IF export numbers and growth in A2 baby products sales

Good enough correlation for me to say A2 will probably exceed their guidance that H2 revenues will grow about the same as they did in H1

[Baa_Baa]

Correlation

There is between half yearly growth in those IF export numbers and growth in A2 baby products sales

Good enough correlation for me to say A2 will probably exceed their guidance that H2 revenues will grow about the same as they did in H1

Nicely put, for some there's no convincing without hard facts, but here the only facts are a total weight of IF exported from one port. That will never satisfy an engineers mind that needs to know the precise detail. For the rest of us, it's indicative of a positive trend, which is enough to get us through to the May results.

Pretty positive response on the SP regardless of the sideliners and teeth gnashers, just keeps on keeping on. Can't wait for the next exit and then the re-entry afterwards, if one follows A2M, might double the shareholding again or thereabouts, this is a momentum traders dream (pretty good for long termers as well, they're killing it!) ATM not so much.

[nzsharetrade]

Hi Leftfield,

I think some of your interpretations are wrong.

Synlait actually owns the accreditations for the Chinese market, not A2. Synlait could (and might) well sell other (non A2) IF into China, but they definitely produce and sell A1 IF into other countries.

To the best of my knowledge - all IF A2 is shipping from New Zealand is produced by Synlait, however Synlait has as well a number of other (non - A2 ) customers.

As indicated - Synlait has easy access to at least three NZ ports (and they have all "Inland ports" in Rolleston - just a stone throw from the Synlait factory). I assume Synlait is using more than one of them.

There are other big IF producers in the South Island (Fonterra and Westland Milk). They will as well use all of these ports (depending on who offers the best deal).

Which means that there is no point in trying to correlate the IF shipments of one port (which could come from at least 4 different sources) with the assumed business of one particular brand.

()

"Synlait actually owns the accreditations for the Chinese market, not A2. " this is the bit that I dont understand. A2 only own the marketing concept and everything else owned by SML. Most people always think a2 can go to fonterra or other supplier ...my question is how? how long others can get SAMR approval? when was the last time SAMR approved overseas IF? surely you are not expecting ATM to achieve 1B$ through DAIGOU. (Good luck with BAL's approval, I would say BUB have more chance than BAL at moment.)

it seems A2 management love to dump shares when SP goes up along with volume. I guess we are safe for now. otherwise again, we are back to stone age.

[winner69]

Nicely put, for some there's no convincing without hard facts, but here the only facts are a total weight of IF exported from one port. That will never satisfy an engineers mind that needs to know the precise detail.

Blackpeter an engineer ...no way

Maybe you meant to say a financial engineer

[44wishlists]

Taken from a very popular shopping mall in Hong Kong today. Shops are preparing for the "5.1 Golden Week", and can see them actively promoting Atwo by Illuma. Illuma ATwo chose Hannah Quinlivan, wife of Asian MEGA popstar Jay Chou, as their brand ambassador. Looks like the battle is intensifying.
Attachment 10508

[BlackPeter]

Nicely put, for some there's no convincing without hard facts, but here the only facts are a total weight of IF exported from one port. That will never satisfy an engineers mind that needs to know the precise detail. For the rest of us, it's indicative of a positive trend, which is enough to get us through to the May results.

Pretty positive response on the SP regardless of the sideliners and teeth gnashers, just keeps on keeping on. Can't wait for the next exit and then the re-entry afterwards, if one follows A2M, might double the shareholding again or thereabouts, this is a momentum traders dream (pretty good for long termers as well, they're killing it!) ATM not so much.

You mean I need more faith . Which church would I need to subscribe to ...?

[Balance]

Heading towards $17.00

The word is :PANIC!

Panic short covering, that is.