ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[winner69]

That's like asking if everybody playing at a casino wins.

But it seems in the excitement everybody is winning ....the shorters included .....but I suppose if the price is about the same as it was a few weeks ago there has to be a few losers as well

Just wondering

[Snoopy]

Freekin heck I cant keep up with this beast the last few days! Its enough to give a bear palpitations

Relax, keep calm take a deep breath and repeat to yourself that the real value this share is $3. Your mind will reach a point of supreme calmness, so you will find that all worries about what you should do and most of all all those uncertainties centered around how to interpret what other people are doing will disappear. I have done this myself and found that it works a treat .... unless of course you happen to be a shareholder already....

SNOOPY

[couta1]

But it seems in the excitement everybody is winning ....the shorters included .....but I suppose if the price is about the same as it was a few weeks ago there has to be a few losers as well

Just wondering

A lot of shorters would have been severely burnt by this stock over the last few months.

[RupertBear]

Relax, keep calm take a deep breath and repeat to yourself that the real value this share is $3. Your mind will reach a point of supreme calmness, so you will find that all worries about what you should do and most of all all those uncertainties centered around how to interpret what other people are doing will disappear. I have done this myself and found that it works a treat .... unless of course you happen to be a shareholder already....

SNOOPY

Aww Snoopy thats very cruel! Mind you I did start buying in at around $3 but I have been unable to resist jumping aboard the rocket ship on its way to another galaxy so there is a little fear in the little bear when it diverts off course at blistering speed

[Snow Leopard]

Relax, keep calm take a deep breath and repeat to yourself that the real value this share is $3....

I feel you are being a little pessimistic in your obviously thoroughly thought through valuation.

Myself, I have careful considered combined profit, dividend and milk flow models from a monte carlo simulation of milk product futures, including but not exclusively infant formula, fresh milk, cheeses (including the stuff they put on pizzas) and a range of flavoured yoghurt products.

ATM has a real value of:

$4.72

Anything higher is just plain exuberance caused by drinking too much fermented milk.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: It has been an interesting week.

[kiora]

I feel you are being a little pessimistic in your obviously thoroughly thought through valuation.

Myself, I have careful considered combined profit, dividend and milk flow models from a monte carlo simulation of milk product futures, including but not exclusively infant formula, fresh milk, cheeses (including the stuff they put on pizzas) and a range of flavoured yoghurt products.

ATM has a real value of:

$4.72

Anything higher is just plain exuberance caused by drinking too much fermented milk.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: It has been an interesting week.

Ah,you missed the Lactiferon bit !Or do Synlait get to keep it?

[Beagle]

The wild volatility certainty give this hound paws for thought this week. Just sticking my snout in the AIR and sniffing the breeze...exactly what sales for FY18 are built into shareholders very lofty expectations for the annual meeting update ? 4 traders consensus analyst expectations are about $750m (going purely off memory here, sorry its late and I simply can't be bothered looking it up)...what are the chances the company comes out and says yes sales are growing strongly and yes we expect sales of $750m this year and the market has worked itself into a lather expecting much more ? One wonders if the current SP implies the market expectation is for ~ $850 - $900m sales this year ?

Strap yourself in folks, could be a wild ride this month and extreme volatility this week just a taste of things to come ?
Disc: Still have a paw in the game but a nice stash of juicy bones to chew at my leisure from selling down most of mine at an average of ~ $8.30.
I think any cat or dog who thinks they can accurately value this is trying to pull the wool / fur ? over your eyes but this hound is definitely not sniffing a bargain at the current price !

[RGR367]

.....................
ATM has a real value of:

$4.72

Anything higher is just plain exuberance caused by drinking too much fermented milk.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: It has been an interesting week.

Sorry Milk Drinking Tiger but the real value of ATM is anything beyond 50 cents had you bought it in early 2015 So yeah, anything above that price is just pure exhilarating joy that no shorters of this stock at this point will ever match

[hardt]

A quick look at the rather lowball fair values:

ATM.NZX	2017	2018	2019	2020
EPS	12.29	21.18	27.90	34.90
DCF per share	9.15	18.96	26.94	34.81
$3 Earnings Multiple	24.41	14.16	10.75	8.60
$3 DCF Multiple	32.79	15.82	11.14	8.62
$4.72 Earnings Multiple	38.41	22.29	16.92	13.52
$4.72 DCF Multiple	51.58	24.89	17.52	13.56

Industry average PE is 30x

These fair values imply that the forecasted growth of 25-30% from 2018 onwards is not going to happen.

I most certainly don't agree with those values in the current climate.
I think people might be pre-empting a big guidance which could be setting themselves up for disappointment, the bar will keep rising again and again until A2M fails to reach it... perhaps you guys believe this is the year for failure?

The market will be unforgiving of any failure so I understand the reservations on this one...

[Leftfield]

Thanks Hardt. Nice to wake up this morning to a bit more serious analysis than (dare I say it) Snoopy and PT. Much appreciated. Clearly we are all waiting the 21 Nov ASM figures with interest!! Some of us better positioned than others.