ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Beagle]

Interesting perspective - this Naked PE.
SML contributes to earnings so attributing a cash value to that shareholding and stripping it out and coming up with a forward PE based on a rather creative "attributed" cash value looks pretty "creative" to me. If ATM didn't have that shareholding I doubt they could lean on SML for such good supply arrangements so that shareholding is an integrated part of their business model in my view and probably confers meaningful earnings power to ATM beyond ATM's share of SML's reported earnings.
Happy to stick with my analsysis and valuation clearly articulated earlier today. I'm not getting caught up in the "hype" that this is a "major" upgrade.

[alex f]

Cnu p/e 46, fph p/e 56, fbu p/e 27, xro p/e 5482

[couta1]

Crazy volatility as always and we wouldn't have it any other way, would we!!! Sleep well Carrom if your not too excited and then theres always the element that we really dont have a solid clue about what tomorrow may bring just to keep the edge on.

[see weed]

a2m up 8c and rising, from NZX close 60 mins. ago.

[winner69]

The much adored Ben Graham would say a PE of 46 is about right

So $21 here we come


using Beagles modest 18% growth and PE of 10 for no growth

[carrom74]

Crazy volatility as always and we wouldn't have it any other way, would we!!! Sleep well Carrom if your not too excited and then theres always the element that we really dont have a solid clue about what tomorrow may bring just to keep the edge on.

Couldn’t agree more Couta.. I should sleep well tonight as I am Just in the green... $14.06 is my average... Tomorrow is a new day... and let’s see what’s we have in store eh?

[Beagle]

The much adored Ben Graham would say a PE of 46 is about right

So $21 here we come


using Beagles modest 18% growth and PE of 10 for no growth

LOL, trouble is if you use that theory MET is also worth $21 ...which is why I stick to 1g plus 10 these days.

[see weed]

a2m up 8c and rising, from NZX close 60 mins. ago.

a2m up 12c from nzx close.

[mfd]

The revenue growth and margin upgrade were great, but I particularly liked the way Jane talked about the China market.

"we are only just beginning onthe journey to our full potential in this market"

"Channels outside what is sourced directly from Australia account for ~90% of the market’s infantnutrition category value. We are significantly under-developed in the majority of thesestrategically important channels to consumers."

"there is asignificant opportunity to accelerate our brand scale by step-changing brand awareness and trial"

"more product launches to come inthe second half of FY20."

Sounds like there is significant growth still to come from the China business while we wait for the US business to grow to a significant scale.

[see weed]

Bit of coverage of a2 milk on zb news talk after 6.30 pm news tonight