ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[NZSilver]

Strong revenue growth and 30% to 31% e its margin

But had a few ifs and buts around that and the ifs and buts came true

Did they give a range/numbers

[Balance]

You have been wrong about A2 on a couple of previous occasions, could this be a third?

Just a general statement about downgrades coming in threes from me, couta1.

A2 has been heck of a great investment for many of us, including me and I am not knocking its business - more the general psychology around why management & directors persist with multiple downgrades.

[Bjauck]

As one of the top 100 holders I will be selling no shares other than to buy more back cheaper, no one and I mean absolutely no one will shake me out of this holding and I can be an incredibly determined person who knows how to get through tough times. PS-87% of the company is owned by big and bigger fish and only 13% by reef fish which includes shorters, who has the firepower to win in the end?

As a matter of interest, as you are one of the apex ocean giants, and one who will hold your holding no mater what by the sounds of it, what do you get out of reading and posting on a public forum populated mostly by reef fish (and bottom dwellers)?

[couta1]

As a matter of interest, as you are one of the apex ocean giants, and one who will hold your holding no mater what by the sounds of it, what do you get out of reading and posting on a public forum populated mostly by reef fish (and bottom dwellers)?

I don't see where I mentioned being one of the apex ocean giants, I said top 100 holder, I post to encourage those that may be finding it tough at the moment to stay strong,reef fish comment is just the reality of things.

[winner69]

Did they give a range/numbers

No ..leave that to brokers/analysts to guess

[Beagle]

Can someone please let me know what the original guidance was vs downgrade?

The original guidance was for "strong growth". No specific numbers were given. There was then some insider party selling.
I posted average analyst forecasted growth and the revised mid point of the new sales projections earlier today. Summary - At the mid point of the new official company forecast sales are projected to grow less than 7%. (I will leave others to decide if that meets the definition of "strong growth") On average before today's update analysts were projecting sales growth of 18% on 31% EBITDA margin.

Disc: No position in this one. I post because I enjoy a good debate and enjoy sharing a view that is often different to the consensus. Its never intended as or should be relied upon as advice and everyone is responsible for their own decision making.

[Cyclical]

Interesting times. I jumped out a couple of weeks ago for what amounted to about a 4% loss for a couple of reasons, 1 being some of the talk around here got me a little nervous, 2 I needed to free up some cash for something and 3, with the cyclical nature of the ATM SP at this time of the year, coupled with that aforementioned nervousness, I figured I could probably jump back in later at about the same price or less. However, sitting on the sidelines at this point, it's certainly not confidence inspiring when you look at recent results, announcements, H1 and H2 projections and this all coupled with the immaculate timing of recent directors sell downs. One can't help but think that today's announcement couldn't have been timed any differently given the directors sales activity while at the same time be forward looking enough to still be able to paint a rosy picture and then blame the crystal ball in the event H2 doesn't deliver on that 47% uplift (Wow, covid clearly isn't going to be a factor for that half then).

Of course it could all be a ploy to get the weak hands to let go, of which I'm one. Yeah, nah, I'll sit tight with a Tui in hand and re-access a bit later down the track for a possible reentry point. Meanwhile, I'm expecting this downgrade and dodgy feel about it all will accentuate the usual seasonal slide.

[dreamcatcher]

Oh dear another raid!! ........ Could be ANOTHER burn date coming shortly for the borrowed share boys if a2 starts running low on weak hands.

[Beagle]

Interesting times. I jumped out a couple of weeks ago for what amounted to about a 4% loss for a couple of reasons, 1 being some of the talk around here got me a little nervous, 2 I needed to free up some cash for something and 3, with the cyclical nature of the ATM SP at this time of the year, coupled with that aforementioned nervousness, I figured I could probably jump back in later at about the same price or less. However, sitting on the sidelines at this point, it's certainly not confidence inspiring when you look at recent results, announcements, H1 and H2 projections and this all coupled with the immaculate timing of recent directors sell downs. One can't help but think that today's announcement couldn't have been timed any differently given the directors sales activity while at the same time be forward looking enough to still be able to paint a rosy picture and then blame the crystal ball in the event H2 doesn't deliver on that 47% uplift (Wow, covid clearly isn't going to be a factor for that half then).

Of course it could all be a ploy to get the weak hands to let go, of which I'm one. Yeah, nah, I'll sit tight with a Tui in hand and re-access a bit later down the track for a possible reentry point. Meanwhile, I'm expecting this downgrade and dodgy feel about it all will accentuate the usual seasonal slide.

I have a dozen Tui's here. Covid won't affect 2H sales which will rebound 47% from current sales level's. YEAH RIGHT. That registered a very solid reading on this dog's creative corporate B.S. meter.

[bull....]

imagine if a2 doesnt make its optimistic 2nd half outlook be amegedon on the share price