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23-05-2018, 04:07 PM
#8821
Originally Posted by gbogo
come on, Beagle.. I might not have entered that competition if I knew it was going to be used to add / subtract credibility from every post! As it happens, I used a deliberate high-beta strategy in the comp, meaning that i picked high-risk stocks which could all fall to zero, but had some chance of a lottery payoff. I could do that in the comp, because there was no $$ at stake. I wouldn't do that in real life with my money or any money I was managing.
here here i just enter for fun , doesnt reflect my actual investments at all. as you say competetions can make people go for dogs in the hope of the big payoff
one step ahead of the herd
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23-05-2018, 04:12 PM
#8822
This drop is really quite harsh. A 20% drop from here and we'll be looking at a forward PE of around 30!
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23-05-2018, 04:12 PM
#8823
FWIW in regard to the competition I can't be bothered hounding out high beta or binary outcome stocks...I just follow my snout and put into the comp my five biggest market positions at the start of the year.
Regarding ATM most brokers are around 40 cps for FY19. Work the forward PE on the current SP, (its moving so fast I won't calculate it) other than to say at $10.00 its a forward PE of 25 which when one considers their track record of growth and outlook...
Last edited by Beagle; 23-05-2018 at 04:15 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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23-05-2018, 05:05 PM
#8824
This from shortman au
Date |
Gross shorts 1 |
Issued capital |
% Capital shorted 2 |
Trade volume 3 |
Shorts as % of volume 4 |
Tue 22nd May, 2018 |
1,210,020 |
730,039,067 |
0.16% |
6,733,713 |
17.97% |
Mon 21st May, 2018 |
1,945,365 |
730,039,067 |
0.26% |
6,220,078 |
31.28% |
Fri 18th May, 2018 |
2,485,204 |
730,039,067 |
0.34% |
8,685,867 |
28.61% |
Thu 17th May, 2018 |
3,054,425 |
730,039,067 |
0.41% |
10,261,306 |
29.77% |
Wed 16th May, 2018 |
3,284,832 |
730,039,067 |
0.45% |
22,163,857 |
14.82% |
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23-05-2018, 05:20 PM
#8825
SML back to parity, but not in a good way, it just falling slower
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23-05-2018, 05:36 PM
#8826
Originally Posted by Joshuatree
This from shortman au
Date |
Gross shorts 1 |
Issued capital |
% Capital shorted 2 |
Trade volume 3 |
Shorts as % of volume 4 |
Tue 22nd May, 2018 |
1,210,020 |
730,039,067 |
0.16% |
6,733,713 |
17.97% |
Mon 21st May, 2018 |
1,945,365 |
730,039,067 |
0.26% |
6,220,078 |
31.28% |
Fri 18th May, 2018 |
2,485,204 |
730,039,067 |
0.34% |
8,685,867 |
28.61% |
Thu 17th May, 2018 |
3,054,425 |
730,039,067 |
0.41% |
10,261,306 |
29.77% |
Wed 16th May, 2018 |
3,284,832 |
730,039,067 |
0.45% |
22,163,857 |
14.82% |
If I have understood this table correctly the total shorts represent a small fraction of daily turnover. If so they are noise as they could be cleared very quickly. On Wed. Shorts increased by about 230k or 1% of the volume traded that day. The other 99% is not shorts related.
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23-05-2018, 05:40 PM
#8827
I get you guys are all optimistic due to MSCI etc but the chart is absolutely shocking.
People wondering who the sellers are might be better asking themselves who is buying.
At least wait for the indicators to poke back up over the 20 sell line at the very least, because they
all under it and still heading south
Last edited by ratkin; 23-05-2018 at 05:51 PM.
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23-05-2018, 05:46 PM
#8828
Originally Posted by Scrunch
If I have understood this table correctly the total shorts represent a small fraction of daily turnover. If so they are noise as they could be cleared very quickly. On Wed. Shorts increased by about 230k or 1% of the volume traded that day. The other 99% is not shorts related.
I think you need to look into the last column (shorts as percentage of volume), and this number is higher. Shorts as percentage of capital (the small numbers) is quite irrelevant for short covering later on - unless the shorters have access to the total market cap (which they obviously haven't).
If volume goes down over the next couple of days many of these shorter's will be in the proverbial ...
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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23-05-2018, 05:48 PM
#8829
Originally Posted by ratkin
I get you guys are all optimistic due to MSCI etc but the chart is absolutely shocking.
Well, it depends on which time window you look at. However - stock is still well above EMA200, the uptrend is not broken ...
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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23-05-2018, 06:00 PM
#8830
balamys - bal getting hammered too so not just a a2 thing
one step ahead of the herd
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