ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[hardt]

As ATM bounces around looking for 'support', it will be interesting to see where it settles after the next update due 21 Nov 17.

Here’s the updated summary of ST valuations including Snoopy’s, PT’s and Hardt’s latest…..

Snoopy - $NZ 3.00
PT - $NZ 4.72
BP Brokers - $A 5.85
Left field - $NZ 7.50
Hardt - $NZ 8.60 to …..$51.58 ( open to interpretation - am I being fair Hardt?)
sb9 - $NZ 8.25 to $10


In the meantime I expect more volatility.

3 months later...

[couta1]

My gutometer has served me well since entry with an average buy in of 36c.
I have deliberated on an almost daily basis over the past 3 years whether to sell or not all the way until yesterday. Many times dollars in the bank seemed like the "right thing to do", lucky I didn't listen to myself then. instead Ive relied on the masters to speak so refer back to this post I made all the way back then.



And because of that, I am still in. My reasoning has always been, "could I afford to buy back in for the price I sold?
And more to the point, how would I feel when this reaches $30-$45 next year.
GLTH...hang in there

Love that price target, but it does highlight your point that going long is best(Unless trading is your main game) Think of all those people that bought XRO at $1 in 2007, it then reached $45 in 2014 from memory, and even after it's drop back, it's currently trading near $34 NZ, serious coin has been made by those using their Gutometer.PS-If XRO can reach those prices, A2 most certainly can.

[sb9]

3 months later...

All ST valuations are in water....thanks to the deal with Fonterra, but for that some us would've been bit closer to real price

[Leftfield]

Originally Posted by Left field
As ATM bounces around looking for 'support', it will be interesting to see where it settles after the next update due 21 Nov 17.

Here’s the updated summary of ST valuations including Snoopy’s, PT’s and Hardt’s latest…..

Snoopy - $NZ 3.00
PT - $NZ 4.72
BP Brokers - $A 5.85
Left field - $NZ 7.50
Hardt - $NZ 8.60 to …..$51.58 ( open to interpretation - am I being fair Hardt?)
sb9 - $NZ 8.25 to $10

3 months later...

3 months later... who would have thought eh?

I love being on the conservative side of wrong.....tho' I do recall my subsequent prediction of $NZ 12.00 (?) in 2018 made after the Nov 17 results. That too now looks way to conservative!

$NZ 20 by Dec 2018 now likely..... as for an end 2019 estimate SP I'll delegate that to Hardt!

Well done Hardt your forecast (or my interpretation of it) now looks the most realistic!!

[RGR367]

And a simple way is to sell enough to pay back the initial investment then the rest is free money - no worries.

Yup. It's all about free money when we talk about ATM now

[RGR367]

............, serious coin has been made by those using their Gutometer.PS-If XRO can reach those prices, A2 most certainly can.

I'm with you on gut feel especially about XRO couta1 But it's more about "speculative deduction" then for ATM when I first heard/read it here. Still Gutometer, but looking like A2 will beat XRO to the high price of $45 sooner.

[Ggcc]

I don’t mind that the price is dropping as I am hopefully accumulating once funds become available. Long term plan on this share for me, but I am hoping more $11-$12

[hardt]

*Reposted without trying to sabotage format*

Marginal expansion is alive and well with A2M, forecasted to continue expanding as economies of scale takeover.
CAPEX is almost negligible, huge possibility they will put capital to earnings accretive opportunities (not forecasted possible upside)
Assuming* that 4M18 will be a higher proportion of FY18 revenues than 4M17 was to FY17... lower Q seq. growth.
4M17/FY17A = 28%
4M18/FY18E = 32%
Room for upside if sequential growth performed similarly with last year.
31% revenue growth over the next 3 years, I am told, is on the conservative side as well.
However the marginal expansion forecasted could be considered optimistic as net profitability rises to 24%

ATM.NZX	2017	2018	2019	2020
EARNINGS PER SHARE	12.29	22.95	31.55	40.75
FORWARD PER AT $850	37.00	26.94	20.86	19.54
SP AT 30 x FORWARD PE	688	946	1223	1500
PEG RATIO AT 30 x EARNINGS	0.35	0.80	1.03	1.22
SP AT 40 x FORWARD PE	918	1262	1630	2000
PEG RATIO AT 40 x EARNINGS	0.46	1.01	1.37	1.63
FORWARD EARNINGS GROWTH	90.01%	35.09%	29.17%	22.70%

How horribly wrong I was... thankfully not to my detriment as it usually is.

Left Field quickly revised his PT up to the teens while I thought I was keeping mine grounded at $9

My target for the year is now $16.50

ATM.NZX	2017	2018	2019	2020
EARNINGS PER SHARE	12.29	29.00	44.00	55.00
SP AT 30 x FORWARD PE	870	1320	1650	1500
SP AT 40 x FORWARD PE	1160	1760	2200	2000
PEG RATIO AT 40X TTM EARNINGS	0.29	0.77	1.60	1.63
SP AT 60X TTM EARNINGS	737	1740	2640	3300
SP AT 40X TTM EARNINGS	491	1160	1760	2200

[moka]

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/02/20/china-and-the-us-are-key-markets-for-this-dairy-products-firm.html?play=1

Goeff Babidge interview on CNBC

[winner69]

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/02/20/china-and-the-us-are-key-markets-for-this-dairy-products-firm.html?play=1

Goeff Babidge interview on CNBC

They doing a good job promoting themselves (market wise) in the US ...must have a good local person on board who knows how to get this market exposure

Well done