ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Sideshow Bob]

With so much cash reserves in the kitty..more money splashing towards SML?

Pretty much not without making an offer for the whole lot, as close to 20% now.

But not their style - let someone else own the stainless steel, concentrate on marketing and building a big, deep moat......

[see weed]

Anything is possible. But probable, maybe less so? When you're on the sidelines nursing ones FOMO, without skin in this game, or a long term outlook, it's easy to summon up daily spooky sentiment with any volatile stock, which on face value just looks like an outsider wondering whether to be an insider looking for subtle clues when really it's just a smack in the face buy and long term hold. If one took your supposition at face value, then the low close at $9.04 was screaming buy.

Proven growth companies are like that, they run away very quickly from from rational investment thought and like XRO, one day you wonder why you spent so much time criticising it at under a $1, then again under $10, then somehow it's a few thousand % gains and still unfathomable from an FA perspective. Growth. It's hard to reconcile on a rational basis. Better just to be aboard the train than miss the next station, or the one after that, or or or.

My turn. A good post. A good morning and time for bed.

[winner69]

The question is what is a reasonable forward PE for a company such as this. We'll know a lot more tomorrow.

Ben Graham would say north of 60

I say 30 to 40

Some would say 20 about right

So 40 cents eps likely reasonable price somewhere between $8 and $25

[see weed]

One hour to go. Wonder if any surprise announcements to add to half year. Last year surprise was Fonterra. Whatever happens there will be movement up, down or sideways, hang on and enjoy the ride.

[bull....]

yep got my poo catchers on just in case

[bull....]

heres some reading to remind long term holders in the off chance it falls 20% today

https://microcapclub.com/2014/08/the...ction-to-hold/

[Snoopy]

Anything is possible. But probable, maybe less so? When you're on the sidelines nursing ones FOMO, without skin in this game, or a long term outlook, it's easy to summon up daily spooky sentiment with any volatile stock, which on face value just looks like an outsider wondering whether to be an insider looking for subtle clues when really it's just a smack in the face buy and long term hold. If one took your supposition at face value, then the low close at $9.04 was screaming buy.

Proven growth companies are like that, they run away very quickly from from rational investment thought and like XRO, one day you wonder why you spent so much time criticising it at under a $1, then again under $10, then somehow it's a few thousand % gains and still unfathomable from an FA perspective. Growth. It's hard to reconcile on a rational basis. Better just to be aboard the train than miss the next station, or the one after that, or or or.

I would be first to admit that the decision to concentrate on the Chinese IF market and the subsequent results have been impressive. And before that the way A2 penetrated the supermarket duopoly in Australia (perhaps less of a duopoly now with the arrival of Aldi) was great. Yet many here seem to have forgotten that this was the result of a near twenty year development program. Twenty years to obtain 'overnight success' and the road to success has been far from perfect. For those who have forgotten, the first foray into the US was such a disaster the company had to withdraw from that market completely. The home NZ market initiative has been well below par, and was only recently restructured with Fonterra coming on board. And England/Europe can be best be described as 'muddling along'. Latterly 'Australian growth' has been maintained only because that domestic market has become an alternative channel for export to China. Other expansions into wider Asia are so far peripheral. What I am saying here is that A2M is far from the unstoppable juggernaut that never puts a foot wrong that some here think.

A very astute post there Baa Baa, doesn't matter which way the SP goes tomorrow because long term there's only one way its going and the potential is massive, trade the stock or hold it long and you'll make money. PS-This stock has been my best performer hands down and that's with only making a fraction of what I could have. PPS- XRO was just as successful for many.

'Baa baa's implication that you should suspend rational investment thought and buy at any price to get on the train would have to rate as the least astute remark I have read on this forum for some time. Unlike Xero, at least A2M makes a profit - kudos for that. But I would have thought it would have been more astute to look at how other foreign companies have followed their own growth paths into China as a better clue as to how A2M might develop their Chinese market presence. And I have seen very little evidence that the 'A2 faithful' on this thread have ever even thought about doing that.

SNOOPY

[bull....]

good headline numbers , sales light? and margin compression next half? see what happens

[weasel]

WHAT GS EXPECTS

SALES: NZ$608.0mn (+40% YoY growth)
EBITDA: NZ$197.7mn (+38% YoY growth)
ATM TP NZ$13.70
A2M TP A$13.00

Write your own numbers + or - Maybe A2 can replicate ALU results ??????????

ALU,ax blew the bank today with a cracker result up A$5.49 Comments "China led the revenue growth up 49%"

Sales 613
EBITDA 218

[couta1]

Awesome result and strong outlook, what more could you ask for.