ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Sideshow Bob]

What are everyone's thoughts on 4month revenue figures from July18-Oct18?

My take is ~400m

From 2nd half fy18 results, 488m:
235m for the four months July18-Oct 18 for ANZ (assuming constant 32%market share of IF by value, but not factoring in liquid milk share increases, figures aren't given),
87m for China (5.6% share by value indicated in the Q1 19 update) and
11m for US UK (assuming no growth from June18, not taking the store increases into account)
which gives a figure of 333m for the four months July18-Oct18.

333m is assuming no growth in ANZ and US, UK from June18. However, we have seem across the ditch stock being sold out in supermarkets, etc . Assuming all inventory (64.1m end of June18) were sold, I get a figure for the four months July18-Oct18 of 397.1m.

Probably only have to wait until Tuesday to get some sort of answer/update, at the AGM. Certainly some positive news would be welcome.

[winner69]

What are everyone's thoughts on 4month revenue figures from July18-Oct18?

My take is ~400m

From 2nd half fy18 results, 488m:
235m for the four months July18-Oct 18 for ANZ (assuming constant 32%market share of IF by value, but not factoring in liquid milk share increases, figures aren't given),
87m for China (5.6% share by value indicated in the Q1 19 update) and
11m for US UK (assuming no growth from June18, not taking the store increases into account)
which gives a figure of 333m for the four months July18-Oct18.

333m is assuming no growth in ANZ and US, UK from June18. However, we have seem across the ditch stock being sold out in supermarkets, etc . Assuming all inventory (64.1m end of June18) were sold, I get a figure for the four months July18-Oct18 of 397.1m.

Jeez mate — $400m is only 50% odd growth on last year

Has to be heaps more than that ..doesn’t it?

[allfromacell]

I'm predicting somewhere are 380-385M, I would love for it to come in at 400M but I think that's a little ambitious. I'm excited to hear what's planned for the ever-growing large cash pile, further commentary on regulatory changes and clarity around supply.

[steve06]

Jeez mate — $400m is only 50% odd growth on last year

Has to be heaps more than that ..doesn’t it?

I'd say thats the base figure. 1Q 19 update indicated fresh milk market share now over 10% in ANZ, no figures where given so didn't take that into account. Stores increased from 6000 to 8000 stores in US, as well as increases in China, no solid figures were given so not taken into account. But hopefully the number at the AGM would be higher than that

[carrom74]

Jeez mate — $400m is only 50% odd growth on last year

Has to be heaps more than that ..doesn’t it?

Hey Winner..

For a forward pe consensus of 28.57 at the current sp, do you think $400M profit is low? if in that case would it affect the share price?... its already jittery of late...love your thoughts

[sb9]

What are everyone's thoughts on 4month revenue figures from July18-Oct18?

My take is ~400m

$400mln for 4m would be looked upon very favourably by the market. What gets more exciting would be any capital management initiative especially if its share buy back.

[steve06]

I'm predicting somewhere are 380-385M, I would love for it to come in at 400M but I think that's a little ambitious. I'm excited to hear what's planned for the ever-growing large cash pile, further commentary on regulatory changes and clarity around supply.

///////////

[777]

I'm excited to hear what's planned for the ever-growing large cash pile, further commentary on regulatory changes and clarity around supply.

On recent events I would expect an increase in CEO remuneration, an increase in Directors fees and no dividend for the owners.

[Leftfield]

I'm predicting somewhere are 380-385M, I would love for it to come in at 400M but I think that's a little ambitious. I'm excited to hear what's planned for the ever-growing large cash pile, further commentary on regulatory changes and clarity around supply.

I'm with you on this range (say $380 to $390m.) Would be great to see figures above $400m.

[couta1]

On recent events I would expect an increase in CEO remuneration, an increase in Directors fees and no dividend for the owners.