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  1. #13061
    The Kid
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  2. #13062
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    Replaced by STMOD because copy & pasting entire articles is a breach of copyright and we do not do that on Share Trader.

    We quote a little section of the article only and provide a link to the article instead.

    Last edited by dr_; 04-06-2019 at 07:38 PM.

  3. #13063
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    I would think at face value this is VERY bad for any infant formula company awaiting a new registration as they may find their application is stalled indefinitely. Very bad for BAL in my opinion. ATM closed at A$13.03 which at 0.9440 = $13.80. I think the Chinese's new trade stance needs to be very carefully considered as a potential new and very serious long term risk to any company that relies on Chinese consumers for the bulk of their sales.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  4. #13064
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    I would think at face value this is VERY bad for any infant formula company awaiting a new registration as they may find their application is stalled indefinitely. Very bad for BAL in my opinion. ATM closed at A$13.03 which at 0.9440 = $13.80. I think the Chinese's new trade stance needs to be very carefully considered as a potential new and very serious long term risk to any company that relies on Chinese consumers for the bulk of their sales.
    Has A2 got their SAMR yet?

  5. #13065
    Membaa
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    I would think at face value this is VERY bad for any infant formula company awaiting a new registration as they may find their application is stalled indefinitely. Very bad for BAL in my opinion. ATM closed at A$13.03 which at 0.9440 = $13.80. I think the Chinese's new trade stance needs to be very carefully considered as a potential new and very serious long term risk to any company that relies on Chinese consumers for the bulk of their sales.
    Not sure why you're heaping the doom and gloom on this, it's not your usual slo-mo train wreck that as a non-holder you so obviously enjoy, nor does it represent a "very serious long term risk". You're grossly overstating the implications imho.

    Perhaps you haven't really read the interpreted announcements (which aren't available officially in English yet). What it basically says so far is that China want to bolster domestic supply to 60% (up 13%) and encourage their companies to acquire or partner with suppliers so as to control the supply-side of the supply chain, in order to achieve the goal % domestic supply. That means Chinese companies will want to get closer and more involved with companies like ATM.

    Today's price reaction is understandable as many just see a news headline and bark at the improbable while failing to dig deeper and consider the potential. My guess is that this will wear off in a few days or a week or so and the enlightened and informed will have rejoiced in taking advantage of an oversold SP in an amazing growth story, that is well positioned and solid in its main market China. Absolutely nothing changed today about the business, only the SP changed.

  6. #13066
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    Agreed BaaBaa.

    China’s arable land is decreasing and their people don’t trust their domestically produced food and for good reason. Its a natural consequence then that they seek to secure quality external ‘pure’ supply. Its for this reason the Chinese are snapping up farms here, owning large part of Synlait and the large new facility planned to neighbour the pokeno site.

  7. #13067
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    Good post Baa Baa, noise generates fear and fear generates irrational decisions. A couple of years ago I had a huge amount wiped off my paper profits in A2 in a short space of time(More than I did today) I've learnt to trust my own judgement hence why I still have a large portion of all my available wealth tied up in this company and will continue to do so until I see a reason not to, this news is not that reason.
    Last edited by couta1; 04-06-2019 at 08:39 PM.

  8. #13068
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    Not sure why you're heaping the doom and gloom on this, it's not your usual slo-mo train wreck that as a non-holder you so obviously enjoy, nor does it represent a "very serious long term risk". You're grossly overstating the implications imho.

    Perhaps you haven't really read the interpreted announcements (which aren't available officially in English yet). What it basically says so far is that China want to bolster domestic supply to 60% (up 13%) and encourage their companies to acquire or partner with suppliers so as to control the supply-side of the supply chain, in order to achieve the goal % domestic supply. That means Chinese companies will want to get closer and more involved with companies like ATM.

    Today's price reaction is understandable as many just see a news headline and bark at the improbable while failing to dig deeper and consider the potential. My guess is that this will wear off in a few days or a week or so and the enlightened and informed will have rejoiced in taking advantage of an oversold SP in an amazing growth story, that is well positioned and solid in its main market China. Absolutely nothing changed today about the business, only the SP changed.
    Not sure how you read it like "That means Chinese companies will want to get closer and more involved with companies like ATM."
    My understanding is they want company like ATM to have a factory in China which would not like to happen for ATM's light weight asset....
    they want their own brand to get closer with company like SML for supply. they want to lock high margin profit in China.

    looks like they did same thing for high tech area which upset the US.
    Last edited by nzsharetrade; 04-06-2019 at 08:56 PM.

  9. #13069
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    Great summary Baa_Baa and similar to GS report.

    Wonder if shorts used today's action to close positions ?

  10. #13070
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    For A2 Milk Company and Bellamy’s, the risks are that their effective addressable market in China will shrink,” Morgan Stanley analyst Thomas Kierath said in a report

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...t-local-output
    one step ahead of the herd

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