ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Muppett]

Who do you think the Apple of milk industry then? I thought it was indeed A2M.

I'm no expert, don't know all the players etc... but as the guy on Morningstar (Fetch ?) said in the video (posted on here by someone), there are other "bigger overseas companies with deeper pockets" in China. Danone etc...
A2M has first mover advantage.
When every farmer has only A2 cows ....... problems for A2.
Might be even sooner than that, as that would be a long way away.
Need to make hay while you can.

[couta1]

G.I Jayne has now officially become the billion dollar woman, can we rebuild her, I'm not sure. Has any other CEO in history wiped a billion off the market cap of a company in such a short space of time before their maiden speech, not sure but unlikely. Time for a hot chocolate and a biscuit, night all.

[Snow Leopard]

Very difficult to value a high growth share like ATM, you can make all sorts of assumptions and get almost any valuation you want.
Currently my best guess would be just under $10 now looking at something near $12 a year out.

Mind you my last buy was $2.45, I sold down to keep the portfolio in balance and I am in no rush to top up.
I would be interested if it gets into the $8.XX range.

All just my opinion, of course, it is the one that really matters to me .

[peat]

yeh I agree with those levels SL
I was looking at ATM today but it still seems very expensive (and I do understand why) but just makes me uncomfortable as a reasonably conservative investor.
I was thinking a bit lower before I would be tempted

[clearasmud]

A reason I didn't invest a month or 2 ago was because they said that their big investment in the USA wouldn't be cash flow positive for a couple more years.So I thought the share may drop back.
Did anyone else notice that?

[dobby41]

Seems ATM has gone from 'can't beat it, best company there ever was with awesome prospects' to 'dump and run for the hills' very quickly.

Couta1 - I can't see how you seperate your parcels of shares. When you sell do you specify particular ones to sell (the one brought at $8)? As far as I can see you have dollar cost averaged and none will sell at a loss at the moment. If you think the parcel purchased at $11.80 is going to go up (won't sell at a loss so you must think they will go up) why wouldn't the parcel brought at $8 go up also and be worth even more than they are now.
Seems like woolley thinking by a very sensible person. I suppose it can happen to us all.

[777]

Seems ATM has gone from 'can't beat it, best company there ever was with awesome prospects' to 'dump and run for the hills' very quickly.

Couta1 - I can't see how you seperate your parcels of shares. When you sell do you specify particular ones to sell (the one brought at $8)? As far as I can see you have dollar cost averaged and none will sell at a loss at the moment. If you think the parcel purchased at $11.80 is going to go up (won't sell at a loss so you must think they will go up) why wouldn't the parcel brought at $8 go up also and be worth even more than they are now.
Seems like woolley thinking by a very sensible person. I suppose it can happen to us all.

Simple bookkeeping exercise in own records. I do it myself on some occasions as I look at each purchase as an individual investment.

[winner69]

Seems ATM has gone from 'can't beat it, best company there ever was with awesome prospects' to 'dump and run for the hills' very quickly.

.

Isn’t this what happens when realisation hits home that the hype has driven the share price to outrageous heights.

Just drifting back to more sensible / realistic value ......like Synlait is but it’s shareprice has got more downside from here than ATM

The Listener this week seems to be saying that dairy could be good for your heart ...must read the story and not just the cover

[Leftfield]

I'm getting sorely tempted to sell my long term holding bought at $8, my recent parcel bought at $11.80 would remain because they are heavily submerged. I have very little confidence in the Captains ability to avoid icebergs or to repeat hitting one on purpose like she recently did.

I don't care either as long as I don't make a loss, as far as the future goes we need a crystal ball to get that correct and clear ,IMO the big gains have come and gone the SP went from just under $4 to over $14 in a rapid fashion, future gains will more likely be two steps forward and one and a half backward. A CEO who has been earning Massive amounts of money over a long period yet needs to sell her Entire holding to cover a few bills gives all the wrong messages to the market and loyal shareholders, I'm struggling to reconcile her actions and feel confident at the same time.

Couta if you are so concerned about calamity Jane - then of course you should sell
If you are concerned that the Board and other experienced managers were not aware of her intentions and do not support her actions - then of course you should sell.
If you don't believe forward P/E projections based on FY19 $1.2 to $1.5 Bill earnings - then of course you should sell
If you can't see any benefit in the lower NZ $ - then of course you should sell
If you can't see any benefits in the high margins, cash reserves and increasing wealth in shares held in SML - then of course you should sell.
If you see Chinese market risks outweighing Chinese market share and sales growth - then of course you should sell.

[777]

It was the board that decided on her appointment and her entitlement to to the "welcome aboard" share entitlement that could be sold at first opportunity. I don't have faith in them.