ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Muppett]

Yeah, she's clearly responsible for the US/China trade wars, the FED's interest rate increases and last week's sell off in global shares. She's probably also got a hand in Brexit, so how dares she talk about being focused on driving excellent outcomes for the company and shareholders....

Think of it like this.......... we now know that the stock is not worth more than $12.20.

[allfromacell]

Think of it like this.......... we now know that the stock is not worth more than $12.20.

It's a tough one to value that's for sure... A2 now reckon they have 5.6% of a $25B dollar pie that's growing YoY. Not only is the pie getting larger but so is their slice (10% bigger slice in the past 3 months alone).

5.6% of 25B is 1.4B in sales from infant formula alone with lots more growth to come. A2 hope to achieve a 10% market share in china not to mention all the other markets they're expanding into. The market may not currently value the stock at more than $12.20 but I certainly do.

[777]

Jayne had finished with Jethead and was with Qantas. When she left she was CEO Qantas Loyalty and Digital Ventures ....and in some quarters was touted as the next CEO of Qantas

Jetstar fully owned by Qantas.

[Muppett]

It's a tough one to value that's for sure... A2 now reckon they have 5.6% of a $25B dollar pie that's growing YoY. Not only is the pie getting larger but so is their slice (10% bigger slice in the past 3 months alone).

5.6% of 25B is 1.4B in sales from infant formula alone with lots more growth to come. A2 hope to achieve a 10% market share in china not to mention all the other markets they're expanding into. The market may not currently value the stock at more than $12.20 but I certainly do.

I have not checked your figures, I'm sure they are right. Where these in the last couple of presentations?
What do you currently value the stock at?

[allfromacell]

I have not checked your figures, I'm sure they are right. Where these in the last couple of presentations?
What do you currently value the stock at?

The market share numbers are in the presentation on page 26 however the actual size of the market being worth $25B I've not seen much data on to be honest. It's just what I've seen thrown around so don't take it as gospel. If anyone has any source for the size of the market I would be interested in reading it. $1.4B in sales in just the high margin Chinese IF market so quickly does seem a little too good to be true.

I can't give you a dollar amount in what I value it, I have no idea. All I know is definitely more than $12.20.

[winner69]

Jetstar fully owned by Qantas.

I know that, not that stupid ......just correcting that wish of somebody who thought it better if they had let her finish her contract with Jethead ....she already had and had started a new job in Joyce’s leadership shuffle

[Ghost Monkey]

I have not checked your figures, I'm sure they are right. Where these in the last couple of presentations?
What do you currently value the stock at?

Those figures not quite right.

25B is estimate of global infant formula sales, give or take. The 5.6% share is what A2 claim they have in the Chinese market, not globally. For instance, they claim to have 32% share in Australia, but nothing in USA as sales there are mostly of liquid milk. Not sure what share of global sales of infant formula A2 currently has though, would be interesting to know. I doubt more than 2%.

According to Sharechat analyst's predict $1.25B in sales to June, not 1.4B, and certainly not as it stands now.

[Muppett]

I know that, not that stupid ......just correcting that wish of somebody who thought it better if they had let her finish her contract with Jethead ....she already had and had started a new job in Joyce’s leadership shuffle

Joyce is / was not stupid.

[winner69]

In the Annual Report they say China and Other Asia sales were $233.6m and mentioned this 5.1% IF market share (up from 2.8% a year earlier.

Allfromacell — Work something out from this but $25 billion doesn’t seem to come into it.

Interested to see what you come up with .....and it’s probably not $12.20

[Leftfield]

Those figures not quite right.

25B is estimate of global infant formula sales, give or take.

Beg to differ, I've seen estimates of the Chinese market alone at $US 20 billion. ATM's 5.6% of that = approx $US 1.1 billion sales out of China alone.

Thing is, at the end of the day, China estimates are just that - estimates.

Seems ATM is well on the way to $1.2 to $1.3 billion TOTAL sales in FY19, but DYOR (I'm a tab biased.)