ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Beagle]

It did occur to me some months back that burning through $40m+ is a fairly "brave call" considering the population in the US and given most can digest A1 milk quite comfortably. Pretty sure Geoff will have a good think about that and can be relied upon to make an objective decision in the long run best interests of the company based on good solid facts and trends.

If all of China goes into lockdown how are mothers going to get out and buy their A2 milk ? Breast feeding coming back into play ?

[mfd]

This is extremely speculative. At the last forecast they were predicting a 110% revenue increase in the US, and here are a few quotes from the investor briefing when Jane stepped down:

"The Board considers it is appropriate for the Company to target an EBITDA margin of at least 30% in the medium term.We consider this can be achieved without detriment to the opportunity to capture our desired long term market position in China and USA."

"The implementation and optimization phase we have entered into will be the intensive focus of the next 3-5 years. This will place significant time and increased travel demands on the CEO given that our core growth markets are China and the US."

And from Geoff himself:

"In particular, a2MC’s commitment to building a China and US business with multi-channel distribution capability will not change. I regard the present strategy and a natural extension of the work we have been doing over the last 5 years. Our China team is continuing to develop and its capability is building. The US team is now well established and the business growing strongly. Both businesses will continue to require significant investment which is incorporated in our most recent results and outlook."

Edit: furthermore, consider how similar the demographics in the US are to Australia, which was the original A2 market and still the main fresh A2 milk market, which is the primary product that has been launched in the US. A2 have an ~11% market share of the Australian fresh milk market, and this market share is still growing by ~10% per year. It took a fair while to get there, but if they can achieve an even vaguely similar trajectory in the US we will be sitting pretty. Note that when they built the Australia business they were running on the smell of an oily rag, and now they have a huge pot of money looking for opportunities to grow the business.

[Baa_Baa]

It did occur to me some months back that burning through $40m+ is a fairly "brave call" considering the population in the US and given most can digest A1 milk quite comfortably. Pretty sure Geoff will have a good think about that and can be relied upon to make an objective decision in the long run best interests of the company based on good solid facts and trends.

If all of China goes into lockdown how are mothers going to get out and buy their A2 milk ? Breast feeding coming back into play ?

You know you want some of this ATM action, but just can't quite find the trigger to pull. No worries, just put your FA and worries aside for a while and focus on the TA, it will present a good entry price in due course.

Heard of online buying, ecommerce and delivery to your door? ATM will not be compromised. Studies of the ATM supply channels support this.

Just be patient. $8-10 came and went, not sure where the next buy-in/accumalate will be, but it will come. This isn't a game of one-upmanship with your mates, it's about getting into a winning position at the best possible price, for a long hold capital gain, and potential dividends downstream.

imho, have a modest holding in this, a happy holding well in profits ... thanks to TA!

[couta1]

You know you want some of this ATM action, but just can't quite find the trigger to pull. No worries, just put your FA and worries aside for a while and focus on the TA, it will present a good entry price in due course.

Heard of online buying, ecommerce and delivery to your door? ATM will not be compromised. Studies of the ATM supply channels support this.

Just be patient. $8-10 came and went, not sure where the next buy-in/accumalate will be, but it will come. This isn't a game of one-upmanship with your mates, it's about getting into a winning position at the best possible price, for a long hold capital gain, and potential dividends downstream.

imho, have a modest holding in this, a happy holding well in profits ... thanks to TA!

With the result just around the corner which I expect to be very good now seems a good time to buy, failing that wait for the first post result pullback.

[dompf]

It did occur to me some months back that burning through $40m+ is a fairly "brave call" considering the population in the US and given most can digest A1 milk quite comfortably. Pretty sure Geoff will have a good think about that and can be relied upon to make an objective decision in the long run best interests of the company based on good solid facts and trends.

If all of China goes into lockdown how are mothers going to get out and buy their A2 milk ? Breast feeding coming back into play ?

Lockdown isn't affecting packages being delivered - everything is shipping still in 1-2 days through JD and Alibaba (started shipping today) - I dont know many Chinese that dont order almost everything online to be delivered.

To be fair in lockdown pretty much everyone is sitting at home shopping online.

[peat]

Lockdown isn't affecting packages being delivered

Drones , or Uighurs?

[Blue Skies]

After SAARS outbreak the S&P 500 dropped 8.5% with stocks tied to China hit hardest.

With so much of it's business tied to China, anyone else find it hard to believe this virus & resulting massive disruption won't cause any problems for ATM & its business as usual & it's ambitious projected growth targets will continue to be met as if nothings happened ?
I know infants have to be fed, but really?

[couta1]

After SAARS outbreak the S&P 500 dropped 8.5% with stocks tied to China hit hardest.

With so much of it's business tied to China, anyone else find it hard to believe this virus & resulting massive disruption won't cause any problems for ATM & its business as usual & it's ambitious projected growth targets will continue to be met as if nothings happened ?
I know infants have to be fed, but really?

Business as usual IMO, this virus wont last that long and besides it's not a hard one to kill compared to many that have gone before.

[King1212]

sell..sell..sell....everyone is going to die....there will be millions get infected....sell....

[see weed]

sell..sell..sell....everyone is going to die....there will be millions get infected....sell....

You sell sell sell. There will be no one to buy if they are all dead, so not to worry. Me buy buy buy...there will be millions to survive. My sister thinks I'm mad wearing a face mask this morning at pac-n-save. No one else had one on.