ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[couta1]

A well intentioned broker .....they don't exist

Hope he told that broker what for in no uncertain terms

Even changing won't make a difference because they are all the same

Double ticket clippers with tainted motives.

[Snoopy]

Snoopy, you're never going to be able to put a value on ATM looking backwards. Take Xero for example which has never had earnings. Its all about the growth.
Most of the professional analysts have a target price around $14 and are forecasting solid growth in EPS over the years ahead. Yes this company has very strong EPS growth unlike a lot of other growth companies that just grow sales and losses.

'Growth' is not synonymous with any 'share price you like' and turning off all quantitative measuring tools. The purpose of looking at business history is to look at experience and there is not sufficient ATM experience in the Chinese market there yet for me to assume the ATM expansion will follow a hyperbolic growth curve.

Also, there is no need to lower the tone of this thread by resorting to four letter words Beagle. ATM is definitely worth analyzing, if not investing in at this point (in my view). That other one OTOH....

SNOOPY

[bull....]

im hoping for a retest of around 10.50

[BlackPeter]

A well intentioned broker .....they don't exist

Hope he told that broker what for in no uncertain terms

Even changing won't make a difference because they are all the same

Its not that bad - and it depends.

Assume somebody bought some years ago for $10,000.00 20,000 ATM shares for 50 cents each - and this was 10% of their portfolio.

This single holding would be by now more $220,000 - and (depending on how the other shares did, but assume NZX average growth) around 65% of their portfolio.

I think in this case the broker recommendation to reduce would make a lot of sense.

Obviously - some people here think different about the merits of diversification, but I would consider the brokers advise in this context only as sensible portfolio management.

[Beagle]

'Growth' is not synonymous with any 'share price you like' and turning off all quantitative measuring tools. The purpose of looking at business history is to look at experience and there is not sufficient ATM experience in the Chinese market there yet for me to assume the ATM expansion will follow a hyperbolic growth curve.

Also, there is no need to lower the tone of this thread by resorting to four letter words Beagle. ATM is definitely worth analyzing, if not investing in at this point (in my view). That other one OTOH....

SNOOPY

LOL we definitely agree on the hype with that one. I posted some Goldman Sachs research last week. Perhaps you might like to have a good look at that. They don't need hyperbolic growth to justify the current SP. Forecast EPS for FY19 which we'll be starting in a few weeks is ~ 40 cps so the shares are on a forward PE of about 28. Check out the PE's of other top ten NZX stocks like AIA, FPH and POT to name just 3 to see their projected PE. 28 is very reasonable in my view considering their long term prospects including product diversification, (A2 yogurt, cheese, butter e.t.c.)
I agree its not a grannies or orphan's stock and its unlikely to repeat last year's feat of tripling in price in the near future but I'm satisfied its a solid long term hold with great growth prospects and time is one's friend with this stock. All stocks carry risk.

[bull....]

im hoping for a retest of around 10.50

we can do it

[couta1]

we can do it

The machines versus the weak hands, machines always going to win against the gullible Lol.

[bull....]

The machines versus the weak hands, machines always going to win against the gullible Lol.

yes it is very frustrating getting front run by the machines all the time

[minimoke]

The machines versus the weak hands, machines always going to win against the gullible Lol.

I dont understand the machines - where are they able to pick off the small trades from?

[bull....]

I dont understand the machines - where are they able to pick off the small trades from?

the machines are faster