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  1. #8821
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gbogo View Post
    come on, Beagle.. I might not have entered that competition if I knew it was going to be used to add / subtract credibility from every post! As it happens, I used a deliberate high-beta strategy in the comp, meaning that i picked high-risk stocks which could all fall to zero, but had some chance of a lottery payoff. I could do that in the comp, because there was no $$ at stake. I wouldn't do that in real life with my money or any money I was managing.
    here here i just enter for fun , doesnt reflect my actual investments at all. as you say competetions can make people go for dogs in the hope of the big payoff
    one step ahead of the herd

  2. #8822
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    This drop is really quite harsh. A 20% drop from here and we'll be looking at a forward PE of around 30!

  3. #8823
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    FWIW in regard to the competition I can't be bothered hounding out high beta or binary outcome stocks...I just follow my snout and put into the comp my five biggest market positions at the start of the year.

    Regarding ATM most brokers are around 40 cps for FY19. Work the forward PE on the current SP, (its moving so fast I won't calculate it) other than to say at $10.00 its a forward PE of 25 which when one considers their track record of growth and outlook...
    Last edited by Beagle; 23-05-2018 at 03:15 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  4. #8824
    IMO
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    This from shortman au


    Date Gross shorts 1 Issued capital % Capital shorted 2 Trade volume 3 Shorts as % of volume 4
    Tue 22nd May, 2018 1,210,020 730,039,067 0.16% 6,733,713 17.97%
    Mon 21st May, 2018 1,945,365 730,039,067 0.26% 6,220,078 31.28%
    Fri 18th May, 2018 2,485,204 730,039,067 0.34% 8,685,867 28.61%
    Thu 17th May, 2018 3,054,425 730,039,067 0.41% 10,261,306 29.77%
    Wed 16th May, 2018 3,284,832 730,039,067 0.45% 22,163,857 14.82%

  5. #8825
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    SML back to parity, but not in a good way, it just falling slower

  6. #8826
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    This from shortman au


    Date Gross shorts 1 Issued capital % Capital shorted 2 Trade volume 3 Shorts as % of volume 4
    Tue 22nd May, 2018 1,210,020 730,039,067 0.16% 6,733,713 17.97%
    Mon 21st May, 2018 1,945,365 730,039,067 0.26% 6,220,078 31.28%
    Fri 18th May, 2018 2,485,204 730,039,067 0.34% 8,685,867 28.61%
    Thu 17th May, 2018 3,054,425 730,039,067 0.41% 10,261,306 29.77%
    Wed 16th May, 2018 3,284,832 730,039,067 0.45% 22,163,857 14.82%
    If I have understood this table correctly the total shorts represent a small fraction of daily turnover. If so they are noise as they could be cleared very quickly. On Wed. Shorts increased by about 230k or 1% of the volume traded that day. The other 99% is not shorts related.

  7. #8827
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    I get you guys are all optimistic due to MSCI etc but the chart is absolutely shocking.
    People wondering who the sellers are might be better asking themselves who is buying.
    At least wait for the indicators to poke back up over the 20 sell line at the very least, because they
    all under it and still heading south
    Last edited by ratkin; 23-05-2018 at 04:51 PM.

  8. #8828
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scrunch View Post
    If I have understood this table correctly the total shorts represent a small fraction of daily turnover. If so they are noise as they could be cleared very quickly. On Wed. Shorts increased by about 230k or 1% of the volume traded that day. The other 99% is not shorts related.
    I think you need to look into the last column (shorts as percentage of volume), and this number is higher. Shorts as percentage of capital (the small numbers) is quite irrelevant for short covering later on - unless the shorters have access to the total market cap (which they obviously haven't).

    If volume goes down over the next couple of days many of these shorter's will be in the proverbial ...
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  9. #8829
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post
    I get you guys are all optimistic due to MSCI etc but the chart is absolutely shocking.
    Well, it depends on which time window you look at. However - stock is still well above EMA200, the uptrend is not broken ...
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  10. #8830
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    balamys - bal getting hammered too so not just a a2 thing
    one step ahead of the herd

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