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  1. #16421
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    Interesting discussion re why ATM might be looking at buying processing plant.... see here FYI

    "( ATM) will soon be sitting on nearly $1B NZ in COH which would be lucky to be returning much over 1% return for them. If they were successful in acquiring the new shiny state of the art IF plant that is ready to go I am assuming they would be then getting at least another 25% return on their $400M outlay."

    Last edited by Left field; 24-06-2020 at 04:40 PM.

  2. #16422
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    Another goodie from that piece:

    The very fact they are going down this path telegraphs to me they believe Synlait will not be able to keep up with the growth they expect and are forecasting to come despite the complications and threats posed by Covid-19.
    "His loyalty couldn't be bought at any price; but it could be rented remarkably cheaply."

  3. #16423
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    Quote Originally Posted by Left field View Post
    Interesting discussion re why ATM might be looking at buying processing plant.... see here FYI

    "( ATM) will soon be sitting on nearly $1B NZ in COH which would be lucky to be returning much over 1% return for them. If they were successful in acquiring the new shiny state of the art IF plant that is ready to go I am assuming they would be then getting at least another 25% return on their $400M outlay."

    GB will make sure shareholders funds are utilised in most prudent way, he's a Master.

  4. #16424
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    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    GB will make sure shareholders funds are utilised in most prudent way, he's a Master.
    No debt, and a cash mountain continuing to build - so has to do something with it. Seems sensible to plough some money into a plant, different catchment to Synlait, natural volumes for expansion etc.

    Mataura Valley has been struggling for what you read in the newspaper - supply, price competitive, volumes, efficiencies. A2 would support and change all of that immediately.

  5. #16425
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    No debt, and a cash mountain continuing to build - so has to do something with it. Seems sensible to plough some money into a plant, different catchment to Synlait, natural volumes for expansion etc.

    Mataura Valley has been struggling for what you read in the newspaper - supply, price competitive, volumes, efficiencies. A2 would support and change all of that immediately.
    And pick them up for a bargain price in the process...win win for all.

  6. #16426
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    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    And pick them up for a bargain price in the process...win win for all.
    I think it might not be a "bargain", but would have to think certainly at the lower end of otherwise might have to pay given situation and global environment. It took them years to get that plant off the ground, resource consents, funding, partners, building etc, so a definite advantage in having something operational, that could start producing relatively quickly.

    The opportune increase of the Synlait holding recently shows they will take their chance when they come up.

    At least wouldn't have to worry about finance!

  7. #16427
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    (probably not the right thread) .... Would Synlait be considering buying Mataura instead of A2?

  8. #16428
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    Quote Originally Posted by theace View Post
    (probably not the right thread) .... Would Synlait be considering buying Mataura instead of A2?
    Think they are probably strapped enough for cash and would need their major shareholders to pony up.

  9. #16429
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    Not strictly ATM news, but AFN reports key Aust rival Freedom Foods (FNP.ASX ) is in trading halt with both its CFO and CEO gone.

    Latest woes include write down of $35 mill of outdated UHT stock, while past woes include the historic sale of Freedom's 117 mill ATM shares at prices ranging from 70c to 85c..... had they held onto these shares, they would be worth around $2.1 Billion at todays prices!

    Read it here.

  10. #16430
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    Quote Originally Posted by Left field View Post
    Not strictly ATM news, but AFN reports key Aust rival Freedom Foods (FNP.ASX ) is in trading halt with both its CFO and CEO gone.

    Latest woes include write down of $35 mill of outdated UHT stock, while past woes include the historic sale of Freedom's 117 mill ATM shares at prices ranging from 70c to 85c..... had they held onto these shares, they would be worth around $2.1 Billion at todays prices!

    Read it here.
    Oh dear, what a sorry state of affairs. Hopefully some of their cheap shares went few of us retail folk who would be sitting on a decent kitty.

  11. #16431
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    Quote Originally Posted by theace View Post
    (probably not the right thread) .... Would Synlait be considering buying Mataura instead of A2?

    definitely not instead of but I do think it could be A likely option to be bought as a joint venture between the two of them where Synlaits operational knowledge is used as it would be quite a step for A2 to start running a factory with no real experience.


    pure conjecture just theorising but
    imagine if Synlait needed cash to settle Waikato out of court but is strapped for cash. Mataura is purchased and is put into a joint venture along with the waikato factory in exchange for cash from ATM. Synlait runs both at ground level contractually but both take a split and A2 takes the bigger margins as usual.

  12. #16432
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    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  13. #16433
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    i did wonder if she was involved when I saw Bain was having a crack at Virgin.

  14. #16434
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    A possible reason for ATM's uptick today.........

    A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M)

    According to a note out of Citi, its analysts have retained their buy rating and $21.50 price target on this fresh milk and infant formula company’s shares.

    Nice to see Citi supporting my estimated 'fair value' (even better that this is in $A.)

    Not that I'm too fussed on Citi..... or most other broker recommendations! So DYOR.
    Last edited by Left field; 29-06-2020 at 01:59 PM.

  15. #16435
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    Food for thought posted by Mitizi on HC......

    Interesting comparison with NZ's largest company by capitilisation,Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH).
    Full year report out today....Rev of $1.26b,NPAT of $287.3m.
    Their P/E is 78.78,EPS .406.
    Shares on issue 574,635,779.Share price $33.50NZ

    A2 on NZX,Current P/E of 44.66, EPS .43
    Shares on issue 739,830.Share price $19.76(NZX)

    That means A2 should be priced @ approx $26(NZX)
    And we know those figures will be knocked out of the park come report day.

  16. #16436
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    Quote Originally Posted by Left field View Post
    Food for thought posted by Mitizi on HC......

    Interesting comparison with NZ's largest company by capitilisation,Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH).
    Full year report out today....Rev of $1.26b,NPAT of $287.3m.
    Their P/E is 78.78,EPS .406.
    Shares on issue 574,635,779.Share price $33.50NZ

    A2 on NZX,Current P/E of 44.66, EPS .43
    Shares on issue 739,830.Share price $19.76(NZX)

    That means A2 should be priced @ approx $26(NZX)
    And we know those figures will be knocked out of the park come report day.
    I'm picking an upgrade to previous trading numbers sometime in couple of weeks.

  17. #16437
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    Instos pushing the price up this morning . and droppppppppp to catch scarers, I don't see any beef at the current price.
    Last edited by tomm; 01-07-2020 at 12:42 PM.

  18. #16438
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    Creeping up slowly towards $21 mark as market pricing in a possible upgrade and/or announcement re capital investment plans as rumored in media recently.

  19. #16439
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    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    Creeping up slowly towards $21 mark as market pricing in a possible upgrade and/or announcement re capital investment plans as rumored in media recently.
    $20 disappearing into the rear vision mirror...........nice.
    Last edited by Left field; 02-07-2020 at 04:50 PM.

  20. #16440
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    Quote Originally Posted by Left field View Post
    $20 disappearing into the rear vision mirror...........nice.
    A lot of people get scared when stock prices get high, and ignore how the companies that reach these prices from nothing are actually making phenomenal transformation and growth. Looking forward to the next report. Undervalued provided no undisclosed headwind/political or regulatory changes till the report.

    has some COVID protection stamped on it too which doesn't hurt

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