ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Justin]

most important for this stock is growth rate, will be slow down or ramp it up? We can still guessing until next result.

[Beagle]

Probably should clarify a few things.
1. $10 is one possible outcome I am modelling, its not a 40% drop from here, its about 30%. Its just one of several future possibilities I am modelling.
2. I can't control or influence what Kingfish are doing or buying other than talk to the investment manager at the annual meeting or ring them if I am deeply concerned. Neither is likely to have any impact on what they are doing.
3. I have tried talking to Couta1 many, many, many times over many, many years about the risks of having most of your eggs in one basket. I recently gave up because he doesn't listen.
4. Nobody knows the future with absolute crystal clear certainty and I believe having 90% in one share is an exceptionally risky approach. Its something worse than gross recklessness in my opinion.
5. I have learned in my professional career and in more than a decade and 17,000 posts on here that some people can't be helped and it is better to move on and try and help others who can learn and that was the spirit in which my comments were made.
6. Coutts has my phone number, I'm sure he'll ring me when he's ready. Probably a bit annoyed with me but a real friend calls it how they really see it.

Moving on...I do not like companies that depend for a vast amount of their revenue on sales into China especially in this very heightened geopolitical environment.
Who's to say that the Chinese communist party will play fair going forward ? Easy enough for them to issue an edict that all mothers must breast feed their babies as but one example of many things that could happen in the future. Nobody has a crystal clear crystal ball with which to predict the future so a wise man hedges his bets. This is especially important for anyone very close to their retirement years.

[dreamcatcher]

More Competition


Keytone Dairy (ASX:KTD) is pleased to announce it has received a materially increased sales forecast from Nouriz (Shanghai) Fine Food Co., Ltd (“Nouriz China”) for the manufacture of Nouriz China’s private label whole and skim milk powder into China for calendar year 2021.



Nouriz China has provided Keytone with a materially increased sales forecast, up by 24 per cent for the next calendar year, compared with the prior 12 months to October 2020. The growth comes on the back of:

a significantly increased sales forecast received from Walmart China (announced to the ASX on 24 September 2020) of NZD $7.2m, 257% larger than the 12 months of Walmart sales to September 2020 and 3.8x larger than the prior Walmart China forecast provided; and
a key contract win with leading New Zealand grocer Foodstuffs for the manufacture of their whole and skim milk powders, forecast to be worth NZD $7.1m over two years.

Wasn't aware a2 sells whole or skim milk powders ?

[Scrunch]

More Competition


Keytone Dairy (ASX:KTD) is pleased to announce it has received a materially increased sales forecast from Nouriz (Shanghai) Fine Food Co., Ltd (“Nouriz China”) for the manufacture of Nouriz China’s private label whole and skim milk powder into China for calendar year 2021.



Nouriz China has provided Keytone with a materially increased sales forecast, up by 24 per cent for the next calendar year, compared with the prior 12 months to October 2020. The growth comes on the back of:

a significantly increased sales forecast received from Walmart China (announced to the ASX on 24 September 2020) of NZD $7.2m, 257% larger than the 12 months of Walmart sales to September 2020 and 3.8x larger than the prior Walmart China forecast provided; and
a key contract win with leading New Zealand grocer Foodstuffs for the manufacture of their whole and skim milk powders, forecast to be worth NZD $7.1m over two years.

KTD may be growing, but they are currently relatively speaking, very small. Their annual sales are not a lot different to what ATM sells each week.

[porkandpuha]

3. I have tried talking to Couta1 many, many, many times over many, many years about the risks of having most of your eggs in one basket. I recently gave up because he doesn't listen.
4. Nobody knows the future with absolute crystal clear certainty and I believe having 90% in one share is an exceptionally risky approach. Its something worse than gross recklessness in my opinion.
5. I have learned in my professional career and in more than a decade and 17,000 posts on here that some people can't be helped and it is better to move on and try and help others who can learn and that was the spirit in which my comments were made.
6. Coutts has my phone number, I'm sure he'll ring me when he's ready. Probably a bit annoyed with me but a real friend calls it how they really see it.

I can't believe this is still being discussed 50 pages later. It appears you may be more hung up on proving your investing methods are right, as opposed to "helping" anyone. For the same reason you are frustrated with Couta being closed to your point of view, I expect you are just as closed off to him trying to preach the opposite view when he tries to "help" you.

A real investor accepts that everyone has a different appetite for risk. A "real friend" accepts them even more.

Move on.

[Beagle]

I can't believe this is still being discussed 50 pages later. It appears you may be more hung up on proving your investing methods are right, as opposed to "helping" anyone. For the same reason you are frustrated with Couta being closed to your point of view, I expect you are just as closed off to him trying to preach the opposite view when he tries to "help" you.

A real investor accepts that everyone has a different appetite for risk. A "real friend" accepts them even more.

Move on.

I have moved on, was simply responding to some of the things that have been said since last posting in this thread. Thank you for your "expert" psychological assessment.

[Getty]

Kino Kuri sometimes finish up in the pot with the Puha.

[RupertBear]

I can't believe this is still being discussed 50 pages later. It appears you may be more hung up on proving your investing methods are right, as opposed to "helping" anyone. For the same reason you are frustrated with Couta being closed to your point of view, I expect you are just as closed off to him trying to preach the opposite view when he tries to "help" you.

A real investor accepts that everyone has a different appetite for risk. A "real friend" accepts them even more.

Move on.

Agree. A real friend doesnt trash you on a public forum. Its not helpful and not ok IMO.

[HKG2301]

...I do not like companies that depend for a vast amount of their revenue on sales into China especially in this very heightened geopolitical environment.

That applies to a huge part of NZ's export market. However, with risk comes opportunity...

Markets pumping overnight due drop in uncertainty levels. Despite his election rhetoric (aimed at defusing Trump's attempt to make China an election issue), Biden is likely to calm the waters with China, so I see geopolitical tensions easing next year, hopefully.

[longy]

Wasn't aware a2 sells whole or skim milk powders ?

Yes they do. I bought a few bags for my wife over the lock down from Chemistwarehouse.