ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[couta1]

I see austrlaia closed and NZD$11.13. I'm assuming the shorters are out of the market at the moment - not prepared to take a punt on something that could surge tomorrow.

No the shorts are very much in the market at the moment, 75% of total volume was shorters yesterday They may all be running around with their rear ends on fire tomorrow or creating havoc, toss a coin to decide which it will be.

[Beagle]

Average analyst forecast on 4 traders is $191m after tax. We know their sales are $922m That profit figure is the figure to watch for, (under or over) and then put any tea leaves offered in respect of commentary around prospects for FY19 under a high powered microscope. According to 4 traders forecasts for FY19 at this stage they're looking at sales of $1.25b and net profit after tax of $275m. That puts the stock on a forward PE of 29 which seems pretty fair and reasonable given their growth rate.

[Baa_Baa]

Average analyst forecast on 4 traders is $191m after tax. We know their sales are $922m That profit figure is the figure to watch for, (under or over) and then put any tea leaves offered in respect of commentary around prospects for FY19 under a high powered microscope. According to 4 traders forecasts for FY19 at this stage they're looking at sales of $1.25b and net profit after tax of $275m. That puts the stock on a forward PE of 29 which seems pretty fair and reasonable given their growth rate.

You quote 4traders fairly often, does this mean that you rate them worthy of consideration? I rate your opinions highly.

Do you know who the analysts actually are? Personally I reckon they're bumpkins not worthy of a click of my mouse. I have no idea of their provenance and no interest to find out, let alone quote them. Looks to me like just another investor website luring the uneducated into a subscription fee.

Interested in your reply, whether it's self affirming cognitive bias, or a legit source of worthy info.

[Beagle]

Very kind of you to say Baa Baa. Its just a site that endeavors to make money by providing a business news platform that also collates analyst opinions and forecasts.
Thompson Rueters is another one. Its useful for getting a handle on what the average analyst view is, (no, they don't tell you who has the highest or lowest valuation on any particular stock).

Everyone has a bias on every stock they watch or hold, myself included. Over the years I've learned that confirmation bias is something to really try and guard against, hence the value of robust debate on forums like this as a useful check on others opinions. The value of this 4 traders site is that by looking at the average analyst view you smooth out individual analyst bias and it provides a useful benchmark for what the average view of the analyst community is. It can also be a good site to measure up one's own opinion against to double check one is not too far out on a limb with their own bias

If for example ATM report NPAT of say $205m tomorrow morning then you know that on average analysts will be upgrading their valuations (assuming a reasonable outlook guidance from the company, if any). In theory that should lead to the shares going up a bit.

I suspect it'll be a while before we see $14.62 again. That was quite an adrenalin rush that day ! Back in February I had twice as many as I do now. This is another stock that I've reverted to selling half and a free carry+ on because I'm not entirely sure where too from here. I'd like to think its up but I do think Geoffery Babbage leaving was quite a loss for the company. Who knows how Ms Hrdlicker will go. Don't like this succession risk much.

[minimoke]

No coincidence there is some click bait on stuff today: https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/f...the-extra-cost

"When A2 milk arrives at a supermarket near you - and it's coming - should you buy it?
The answer depends on whether you feel that drinking milk causes tummy problems and whether you can afford it.

If money is no object - just get it.

It has all the great nutrition benefits of ordinary milk and there's no downside. If it comes from a farm where the farmer takes extra care around his cows as part of making a niche product, you might even end up with a higher quality milk. It's all good."

[777]

https://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-cont...eport-FY18.pdf

[winner69]

‘The Company anticipates further growth in revenue particularly in respect of nutritional products in ANZ and China, and liquid milk in the United States. The focus on growth initiatives in targeted emerging markets and new product development will continue.’

Anticipates growth

IS THAT ALL WE GET.?

[bull....]

in line with forecasts , no sales forecasts to 2019 only higher costs forecast. still think there marketing spend is to low. reversion to the mean is still my pick over time if not today

[whatsup]

Pretty good ann with no surprises to down ramp imo.

[Beagle]

^^^^ Tough crowd to please. I think it was a very solid result and NPAT is higher than average analyst forecasts. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...526/284975.pdf
Happy with that.