ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[dobby41]

Sounds like a complete idiot. I had a business which was successful for giving customers the option for what they wanted. I get so annoyed with people pushing their way onto me. If I am the customer, I get to consume what I want.

Why get annoyed? Vote with your feet.
There are lots of business' (particularly restaurants) that I won't frequent because I don't like what they offer.
Their choice to offer what they do, mine to not take part.

[Beagle]

1. Open a cafe with a landlord that offers free rent, free water, free electricity.
2. Decide that my ideology has such merit that I can fly in the face of conformity, and convince my customers and landlord that there is HUGE demand for coffee without milk.
3. Get shut down by the provider of my free rent, water, and electricity because their patrons aren't ideologues with my idiotic agenda and realise that common sense must prevail.
4. Back on the dole.

I like this comment in the comments section. Sums it up perfectly. This guy is a waste of space, let's get back to discussing ATM

[Patient Panda]

Have been doing a decent bit of research on ATM last fews days. We all know its a great company with a bright future, the question for me is what price is good value for this future growth? Would love to hear how you think its growth prospects stack up at current PE.

I’m sure for the next 1-3 years they will continue at their frenzied pace of growth but at what point will the growth curve become less steep and how quickly?

[Snow Leopard]

Have been doing a decent bit of research on ATM last fews days. We all know its a great company with a bright future, the question for me is what price is good value for this future growth? Would love to hear how you think its growth prospects stack up at current PE.

I’m sure for the next 1-3 years they will continue at their frenzied pace of growth but at what point will the growth curve become less steep and how quickly?

Given that you know its a great company with a bright future and you are sure of the frenzied pace then you have a greater degree of certainty than me.

Perhaps you should come up with some numbers for us, if you are not too busy
Attachment 9890

[Ggcc]

If I look at what I think this is worth I look into other companies worth. Looking into Xero and their growth and A2 and their growth. I then look at turnover and profits and then I look into their share price and see that A2 should be priced well over $20 given they make a generous profit....................... DYOR please.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...September+2018
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/2...-in-augusthtml

August was an interesting month, up 4.4%.
I noted the following interesting movements, (I am sure there are others, these are simply the interesting ones I noted)
HLG $5.10 to $6.29 up 23.3% (my goodness that Aussie fund really likes this company a LOT !)
SML $10.75 to $12.80 up 19.1% (ATM likes it and the market seems to be rerating it to)
ATM $10.40 to $12.62 up 21.3% (Market liked the result and brokers upgraded significantly)
THL $6.10 to $5.60 down 8.2% (Company needs to better articulate how their investment in TH2 will pay dividends in my opinion)
TRA $3.10 to $2.96 down 4.5% (On no news that's a very disappointing SP performance relative to the index for the month)
OCA $1.13 to $1.14 up just 0.9% (Sector has been strong this month lead by RYM, the elephant in the room is suppressing the SP)

I suspect after such a good month September could prove to be more challenging.
I might be tempted to have a crack at one or two of the underperformers above once they settle a bit more as its hard to see the outperformers kicking on much further in the short term, (with the possible exception of Synlait which reports on 19th Sept and could deliver a great result and news regarding a stronger than expected outlook)

[winner69]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...September+2018
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/2...-in-augusthtml

August was an interesting month, up 4.4%.
I noted the following interesting movements, (I am sure there are others, these are simply the interesting ones I noted)
HLG $5.10 to $6.29 up 23.3% (my goodness that Aussie fund really likes this company a LOT !)
SML $10.75 to $12.80 up 19.1% (ATM likes it and the market seems to be rerating it to)
ATM $10.40 to $12.62 up 21.3% (Market liked the result and brokers upgraded significantly)
THL $6.10 to $5.60 down 8.2% (Company needs to better articulate how their investment in TH2 will pay dividends in my opinion)
TRA $3.10 to $2.96 down 4.5% (On no news that's a very disappointing SP performance relative to the index for the month)
OCA $1.13 to $1.14 up just 0.9% (Sector has been strong this month lead by RYM, the elephant in the room is suppressing the SP)

I suspect after such a good month September could prove to be more challenging.
I might be tempted to have a crack at one or two of the underperformers above once they settle a bit more as its hard to see the outperformers kicking on much further in the short term, (with the possible exception of Synlait which reports on 19th Sept and could deliver a great result and news regarding a stronger than expected outlook)

Interesting ...but you left SUM out (DOWN a fraction in what you say was a strong sector..hmmm)

So TRA, OCA and SUM a bit of a disappointment while HLG, ATM, SML and RYM good

It seems to be that the laggards don't have a very good 'narrative' and as such don't turn most punters (believers excepted) on compared to the others mentioned who have a good story to tell which excites a lot of punters.

THL - as you say their 'narrative' has become a bit confused and the market is confused (maybe) and don't like it

That's how I see it ..... 'narratives' have become more important than fundamentals such as ratios etc

[Beagle]

Got SUM in my July 31 Spreadsheet at $7.60, closed August at $7.68 after shedding a 6 cent divvy so effectively up 14 cents for the month, 1.8%, underperforming the index and that despite Julian being quite clear with his narrative accompanying the half year result. I would say the market was slightly underwhelmed with the result and needs to see more sales on the board.
I'm expecting good things from SUM in the next 6 months and topped up this month. Sometimes after the market has run hot its better to chase the underperformers than what's flavor of the month...

[Patient Panda]

That's how I see it ..... 'narratives' have become more important than fundamentals such as ratios etc

Yep seems this is bang on the money over the short to medium term. Another product of a continuing low interest rate environment eh Winner.

[Beagle]

Turners have been all over the country telling their story in a pretty convincing way but their narrative which has been clearly and thoroughly articulated has done nothing to help their share price !
ATM had very, very little to say about the outlook for FY19 and yet their SP has had one of the strongest months of any stock on the NZX in August.
SUM had a fair bit to say about a positive looking second half coming but their narrative didn't help them.
RYM have been as quiet as a church mouse this month but SP up nearly 16%