ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Balance]

Hi, just wanted to clarify this... Is it correct that it is ok to post a link to a website but not cut and paste of its materials?

My understanding (from experience) is that it is definitely ok to post a link (something the linked publication would be most happy about as that's how they spread their publications and profiles).

A synopsis of the article as written by you is of course fine and a few selective 'cut and paste' to support your synopsis is also fine.

Wholesale cut/copy and paste is absolutely a no-no!

[Leftfield]

Anyway..... as the articles were saying (and it is OK to paraphrase) ATM's sales of IF in China have now reached 5.4% of a $US20 billion market, and you can work out what that equals for ATM (and the market is growing at 20% pa.)

In addition, management of ATM were refuting claims that changes in Chinese regulations would damage A2's IF sales, saying the proposed new regulations were welcomed.

In summary... it's not all doom and gloom for ATM (according to the article and management)

[bull....]

My article was from the AFR...

https://www.afr.com/business/retail/...0181005-h169cs

Just thought I would share it here.

the afr article is one of the most poorly written article i have seen for a long time , it contains so much she will be right assumptions based on no facts its laughable. even the ceo and the other country manger suggest a she be right attitude but they are none the wiser about the new rules than you or me. clearly this article was written to benefit a bounce in the price from critical levels which if broke would have most probably led to sizable falls in price.

at the agm how can they forecast sales when they yet do not know the rules?

[winner69]

Anyway..... as the articles were saying (and it is OK to paraphrase) ATM's sales of IF in China have now reached 5.4% of a $US20 billion market, and you can work out what that equals for ATM (and the market is growing at 20% pa.)

In addition, management of ATM were refuting claims that changes in Chinese regulations would damage A2's IF sales, saying the proposed new regulations were welcomed.

In summary... it's not all doom and gloom for ATM (according to the article and management)

So that’s IF sales of NZ$1.8 billion in China alone ...NOW .....how much of that does A2 get or do A2 get the lot

Could see A2 revenues over $2 billion ....and 100% plus growth year

Share price $20 here we come

[whome]

Good on you Winner. Keep the focus on those incredible numbers. Folks, forget about Herdlicker for now. The real story is whether A2 is in or out with the change in the Chinese regulations, and it appears right now, nobody knows.

[bull....]

UBS has reduced there holding already probably lent itr to short sellers?

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/324952

[Balance]

the afr article is one of the most poorly written article i have seen for a long time , it contains so much she will be right assumptions based on no facts its laughable. even the ceo and the other country manger suggest a she be right attitude but they are none the wiser about the new rules than you or me. clearly this article was written to benefit a bounce in the price from critical levels which if broke would have most probably led to sizable falls in price.

at the agm how can they forecast sales when they yet do not know the rules?

The rules are that ATM will continue to be able to sell its infant formula and milk via stores directly in China.

The daigou platform may or may not continue - doubt it will be catastrophe for ATM as it would be for those companies which rely exclusively on the daigou platform.

[whome]

I forgot to give credit to Leftfield for the summary of the numbers. I read similar articles. As I understand it, the chinese reg changes were targeting the use of foreign exchange for the purchase of luxury goods like high end perfumes, Gucci bags and jewellery etc. - items bought for their elite status value that goes against chinese govt values. The question is whether IF is considered a luxury. In light of the melamine incident where the contaminated IF did kill babies, it is no wonder that chinese mothers will seek a safe source of IF like A2 and be prepared to pay the extra 6% duty that the reg change will impose.

[Muppett]

how do you read this as a shorting? is this not buying notice? sorry newbie here.

UBS sold 5.9m shares in a couple of days (2-3 Oct)

Total NZX ATM volume traded between 1-5 Oct was 6.3m
Total NZX ATM Volume traded between 2-5 Oct was 5.4m

[Beagle]

The rules are that ATM will continue to be able to sell its infant formula and milk via stores directly in China.

The daigou platform may or may not continue - doubt it will be catastrophe for ATM as it would be for those companies which rely exclusively on the daigou platform.

Doesn't need to be a catastrophe as its priced on a forward PE of 30. Any material effect will have a commensurate impact on the SP in my opinion. Doctrine of materiality in accounting terms is 5% impact on NPAT is considered to be material.