ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[NT001]

What you say makes a lot of sense, MAC, and is based on an excellent knowledge of ATM's historical background. In such a large market, JVs would look sensible, focusing initially on selected regions such as the West Coast and perhaps the Northeast. Those regions not only have health-conscious, highly educated and relatively high-income populations, but they are the headquarters of most of the US national media.

Not sublicences, as you say. Even JVs can be tricky. The JV partners need to have strong marketing capability and access to consumer dairy outlets, obviously, but they also IMO need to be separate from the mainstream dairy industry, unlike Muller Wisemans in Britain. They must not be inhibited by concerns that ATM will sooner or later have to market its product very much in competition with standard milk, emphasising more clearly the risks attached to A1.

The Curtin research in Australia is interesting and useful, but is just a first step, identifying mild digestive discomfort associated with A1. That's nothing compared to other research that is likely to verify clear links between A1 and autism (quite soon) and eventually prove probable links between A1 and diabetes and heart disease. It will be full circle for ATM, because that's where the whole A2 thing started with Corran McLachlan's research. It was a strategic error for A2Corp co-founder Howard Patterson to take on the mainstream dairy industry so early in the piece, but sooner or later I think the chips will be down, not only in NZ but globally. IMHO.

I share your suspicions about M&A or takeover, and wondered if there was a link between all this and the recent weakening of the ATM SP. But as regards the delay in putting together a US deal, I feel there could be other explanations. ATM will be wanting to get things absolutely right this time in the US after a couple of failed efforts in the past. And for a company that's still relatively small personnel-wise, it actually has quite a lot else on its plate right now, eg still expanding in Australia and England and working on plans for Europe, China, Korea etc.

[airedale]

" I share your suspicions about M&A or takeover, and wondered if there was a link between all this and the recent weakening of the ATM SP."

Just a thought: it would not have been difficult for Milford to force down the price recently. That would have two effects, as they sold they would have been taking profits and freeing up a bit of cash. It would also have allowed a third party to accumulate ahead of a takeover which would ultimately benefit Milford.

[rbel038]

My wife is currently doing post graduate diabetes papers for her nursing and came home the other night asking me about A2 milk. Turns out the lecturer was giving the nurses a rundown on the A2 research and possible links between A1 beta casein and diabetes / heart disease. Thought it was quite good of the medical profession to be presenting this kind of stuff to the new diabetic nurses before they get out into the community.

[MAC]

My wife is currently doing post graduate diabetes papers for her nursing and came home the other night asking me about A2 milk. Turns out the lecturer was giving the nurses a rundown on the A2 research and possible links between A1 beta casein and diabetes / heart disease. Thought it was quite good of the medical profession to be presenting this kind of stuff to the new diabetic nurses before they get out into the community.

Here ya go Rbel, some weekend reading;

http://www.betacasein.org/index.php?p=type1-diabetes

Seems like just another reason why ATM should be targeting Australia, Northern Europe and North America when one looks at that DM-1 plot ?

regards, Mac

[see weed]

All quiet at the moment, sp down a bit. Waiting for next weeks results I suppose.

[Harrie]

Looks like a bit of off market trading going on.
Picked up a small 5000 today (to make up an even number) at 0.65 leaving one seller with 19000 left to sell.
Parcel went through at 0.64 (not sure of volume), but 19000 still sitting there at 0.65

[Master98]

another 1m shares traded off market, i guess must a place for off market trader.

[see weed]

Bought a 2L A2 milk this afternoon for $1.96c. The drink by date is 24/8/14, but it still tasted good. It is a good feeling buying a product that you have shares in and promoting it to family and friends. All of them so far think it tastes good too -- even one diehard stuck in the mud A1 milk drinker, had to admit it tasted really good!

[Jasemc]

Yep it tastes good and even better when the shares are worth $10 each.

[NT001]

Glad you like A2 milk, SW, but how come you got it for $1.96 for 2L? It usually costs just under $5 for 2L in all the Countdown stores in Wellington. Maybe we should move to Sylvia Park. Are Wellington prices out of line?

Of course the taste is actually irrelevant to the health and digestive claims made for A2, but if it tastes creamier as quite a few people comment, that could be because an A2-only herd is likely to include a higher than normal proportion of Jersey and Guernsey cows, which tend to be naturally A2 and are famous for producing creamy milk. Milk drinkers generally prefer Jersey and Guernsey milk, but farmers who get paid by the volume of milk they supply generally prefer Friesian-Holstein which are noted for their higher per-cow milk production.