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  1. #1981
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    Some nut just bought about 930,000 shares post close.........

  2. #1982
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    Quote Originally Posted by psychic View Post
    Some nut just bought about 930,000 shares post close.........
    Pretty sound investment, I'd say. Wouldn't you agree, MAC?

  3. #1983
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    Quote Originally Posted by NT001 View Post
    Pretty sound investment, I'd say. Wouldn't you agree, MAC?
    Oh absolutely and totally without a doubt, it was actually a 2,860,947 share buy that went through after the close, someone clearly wanted to lock it in before the weekend, should be interesting to see what next week brings.

    I think Physic was responding to Seeweed and Black Knat's wee scientific debate.

    I would only point out that when it comes to science there is a very fine line between genius and insanity, perhaps crazy not to give something good a try, perhaps a genius for doing so.

  4. #1984
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    NT001, why would someone like Nestle not takeover ATM completely for the IP and then use their power to promote and distribute a2 milk but at a mainstream level giving them a seriously good point if difference over say Danube. It actually doesn't take long at all to test/build an a2 herd so would be a smart move. And why not spend $30m driving the price down to get the whole company $300m cheaper?

    The other thing is there's still no SSH notices from a seller but also not from any BUYERS. Could someone be buying and selling to themselves to drive the price down for a takeover?

  5. #1985
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    Quote Originally Posted by nextbigthing View Post
    NT001, why would someone like Nestle not takeover ATM completely for the IP and then use their power to promote and distribute a2 milk but at a mainstream level giving them a seriously good point if difference over say Danube. It actually doesn't take long at all to test/build an a2 herd so would be a smart move. And why not spend $30m driving the price down to get the whole company $300m cheaper?

    The other thing is there's still no SSH notices from a seller but also not from any BUYERS. Could someone be buying and selling to themselves to drive the price down for a takeover?
    It's all possible, NBT, who knows? I certainly agree there may have been some circular trading to drive the price down. Your scenario does have some logic and we need to watch for it, although I've recently tended to doubt its viability and that's why I advanced my reasoning. Good to keep all these options under discussion though.

  6. #1986
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    Quote Originally Posted by NT001 View Post
    It's all possible, NBT, who knows? I certainly agree there may have been some circular trading to drive the price down. Your scenario does have some logic and we need to watch for it, although I've recently tended to doubt its viability and that's why I advanced my reasoning. Good to keep all these options under discussion though.
    Sold some 3 weeks ago, but have bought them back again to average down. Maybe there might be a few others doing the same.

  7. #1987
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    Quote Originally Posted by MAC View Post
    Oh absolutely and totally without a doubt, it was actually a 2,860,947 share buy that went through after the close, someone clearly wanted to lock it in before the weekend, should be interesting to see what next week brings.
    Actually it appears about 450k of those went through in trades 9-27 of normal afternoon trading at 55c, and the rest, about 2.4m, were picked up in 10 further trades at the same price after the close. What's going on? Someone selling to/buying from themselves as NBT suggests?

  8. #1988
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    Quote Originally Posted by NT001 View Post
    Actually it appears about 450k of those went through in trades 9-27 of normal afternoon trading at 55c, and the rest, about 2.4m, were picked up in 10 further trades at the same price after the close. What's going on? Someone selling to/buying from themselves as NBT suggests?
    No, I think in the absence of any SSH notices it is just some selling pressure from punters holding long positions in XRO etc needing to cover margin calls.

    There is a possibility that a group of smart arses working a jump or two ahead of the market seeing what is happening to the long covering, and using the borrow and buyback technique in anticipation of further selling pressure in the more illiquid stocks such as ATM where there are bigger bangs for the same buck on the downside. Here, only small amounts of shares sold a have a large impact on price. I still see that as a long shot though...highly speculative.

    The only other possibility but less likely, is the take over possibility. Don't know if this is a good strategy either because I'm sure freedom foods, and other major shareholders would have to be looking at a price of $2.00+ therefore a little bit of manipulation to drive the price down in the short term would not make a single bit of difference to an offer price IMO.

  9. #1989
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    FWIW I pulled the following trading totals in ATM from Yahoo.com for the six months April 17-Oct 17, correlating them with the fall in share price over that period.

    April 17-30 (10 days) 13,774,100 shares SP fall 85c to 81c

    May (22 days) 44,229,000 80c to 78c

    June (21 days) 50,863,000 78c to 69c

    July (23 days) 21,331,400 70c to 65c

    August (21 days) 21,907,000 63c to 64c

    September (22 days) 25,193,500 62c to 58c

    October 1-17 (13 days) 8,686,800 59c to 55c

    Six-month total 185,984,800 85c to 55c

    Trades equivalent to 28% of the company’s 660,066,979 shares on issue have taken place in six months.

    There were three days, in May-June, when trades exceeded 10m shares, and there have been three other days when they were approx 6m or above. The last really big trading day was 26 August (8.25m)

  10. #1990
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    Quote Originally Posted by NT001 View Post
    FWIW I pulled the following trading totals in ATM from Yahoo.com for the six months April 17-Oct 17, correlating them with the fall in share price over that period.

    April 17-30 (10 days) 13,774,100 shares SP fall 85c to 81c

    May (22 days) 44,229,000 80c to 78c

    June (21 days) 50,863,000 78c to 69c

    July (23 days) 21,331,400 70c to 65c

    August (21 days) 21,907,000 63c to 64c

    September (22 days) 25,193,500 62c to 58c

    October 1-17 (13 days) 8,686,800 59c to 55c

    Six-month total 185,984,800 85c to 55c

    Trades equivalent to 28% of the company’s 660,066,979 shares on issue have taken place in six months.

    There were three days, in May-June, when trades exceeded 10m shares, and there have been three other days when they were approx 6m or above. The last really big trading day was 26 August (8.25m)
    What does the correlation show NT?

    Remember free float is 422 million shares so effectively 44% of shares churned in 6 months. Take into you and MAC haven't sold that's nearly an annualised 100% churn.

    Remember also that one (if not 2) of those high volume days was Milford selling.

    Don't all those numbers just suggest a long steady sell down over the last six months? Often this is a sign that price is just adjusting to fair value. Nothing more or nothing less than that and no conspiracy theories needed, just speculation drove the shareprice to unrealistically great heights and 55/60 cents really is a fair price.

    In the absence of any profits how fair is 55 cents value? At $363m market cap ATM is at more than 6 times book value and trading at more than 3 times sales. Even if it had a NPAT margin of 16% it would e trading on a PE of 20. All seem to suggest current price more than 'fair'

    I just waiting for maybe buying at a discount to this 'fair' price
    Last edited by winner69; 19-10-2014 at 01:17 PM.

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