ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[NT001]

I have worked in NZ dairy industry over 25 years in techincal/scientific roles. From what I get out of research papers on this, the jury is still out....My take from what I have read and know from my time in the industry is that A2 milk (the product, not the company) is a marketing angle, pure and simple....

If A2 milk really was the best milk, with robust proof to support the claimed benefits, livestock improvements would have a catalog weighted in favour of these genetics. Fonterra would be actively guiding their farmers into systematic animal breeding changes to transition their milk protein profile. But neither company has bought into the idea because the weight of science does not support this.

Hi Falcon

Not sure how long you've been following this thread, but there has been a fair bit of detail about the science behind A2. You may prefer to reject the research that is in any way connected with a2MC, and that's a legitimate position to take, but there is now heaps of independent scientific research, published in peer-reviewed journals, not only backing it up but leading the way. For example, research showing the link between A1 and autism came out of US universities, and was a surprise to a2MC. Parents of autistic kids in Australia also discovered for themselves that switching to A2 greatly reduced the effects of autism. And research identifying links between A1 milk and sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) likewise came from teams unrelated to a2MC. Won't bore you with more examples.

You mention that Fonterra does not promote the A2 hypothesis, and the fact that it is not publicly encouraging NZ dairy farmers to convert to A2. Well, the idea that A1 could be triggering human medical problems such as diabetes originally came from Fonterra's chief of research, Dr Jeremy Hill, who co-authored a paper on it, although he keeps quiet about it nowadays. Fonterra also fought A2 Corp through the courts (unsuccessfully) to get possession of the crucial patent on identifying A2 cows. Why? And you don't see Fonterra and its big research team disputing the research being done all round the world that backs up the risk factors in A1 milk, or the claims made by a2MC. Why? They would if they could, obviously, but they can't.

Finally, you are completely mistaken in suggesting that the dairy industry's livestock improvement catalog is not weighted in favour of A2 genetics. It is heavily weighted in favour of A2 genetics. As most people with knowledge of NZ dairy breeding know, the Livestock Improvement Corporation clearly identifies whether its premium bulls are A2 or not, and virtually all of them are now pure A2. So even though Fonterra doesn't want to declare publicly that there are human health reasons for converting away from A1, dairy farmers are moving quietly towards conversion by breeding from LIC's A2 bulls.

[Harrie]

Looking fwd to Falcons response to that one NT!

[kizame]

Finally, you are completely mistaken in suggesting that the dairy industry's livestock improvement catalog is not weighted in favour of A2 genetics. It is heavily weighted in favour of A2 genetics. As most people with knowledge of NZ dairy breeding know, the Livestock Improvement Corporation clearly identifies whether its premium bulls are A2 or not, and virtually all of them are now pure A2. So even though Fonterra doesn't want to declare publicly that there are human health reasons for converting away from A1, dairy farmers are moving quietly towards conversion by breeding from LIC's A2 bulls.

Hi NT, Doesn't that statement that the general fleet of A1 cows are being bred slowly into A2 present some problems,presuming you can breed out A1 genes without having pure A2 cows to breed from.What would then happen? Fonterra would accidently have an A2 herd,so I'm sure they would love to market this,hyperthetically of course,as A2 milk,presuming one day the nations cows all became A2.
Of course it probably couldn't happen that way as there would always be A1 genes in the mix,but interesting none the less,and hopefully by that time A2MC had been bought out.haha
Hmmn...

[see weed]

Good on you NT. You tell it straight to xaf. Keep up the positive facts.

[NT001]

Hi Kizame

Although many dairy farms will increase the proportion of A2 in their herds through breeding with semen from A2 bulls, you are correct in pointing out that this process does not by itself achieve A2 herd purity. Disposal of the remaining mixed A1/A2 cows/calves will at some stage be necessary, which of course interferes with milk production.

At present, a farmer wanting to build up an A2 herd is able to buy pure A2 cows from farmers who are not interested in converting, and selling the mixed-gene cows in return, but it will gradually become more difficult to find farmers willing to sell A2 cows in exchange for mixed-gene cows.

And as more and more farmers receive a premium for supplying pure A2 milk, which can offset the initial costs of conversion, it's hard to predict whether such a premium will continue.

[robbo24]

There's some pretty mad-ass bullish divergence on the charts for ATM.

Everyone just use your chart-imagination...

Bolly bands are closed, SP has been going down while MACD, RSI, Ult Oscillator and Stochastics are alltrending upwards. Williams %R shows very oversold and DMI ADX suggests the downtrend is weak...

Looks kind of like the SMA 50 might have a wee go at the SMA 100 too...

ATM gonna turn around?

[BFG]

There's some pretty mad-ass bullish divergence on the charts for ATM.

Everyone just use your chart-imagination...

Bolly bands are closed, SP has been going down while MACD, RSI, Ult Oscillator and Stochastics are alltrending upwards. Williams %R shows very oversold and DMI ADX suggests the downtrend is weak...

Looks kind of like the SMA 50 might have a wee go at the SMA 100 too...

ATM gonna turn around?

Personally I am neutral and believe it could go either way. However, the amount if resistance sellers are putting up along with no more news ahead leads me to believe a test of 50 is more likely than a jog above 60. Just my two cents quickly!

[robbo24]

Personally I am neutral and believe it could go either way. However, the amount if resistance sellers are putting up along with no more news ahead leads me to believe a test of 50 is more likely than a jog above 60. Just my two cents quickly!

I can't use my chart-imagination on this comment so I am unmoved.

[MAC]

From the FY14 report;

“Income and expense items are translated at the average exchange rates for the period, unless exchange rates fluctuated significantly during that period, in which case the exchange rates at the dates of the transactions are used”

It would seem that although the half year to 31 December 2014 ended with NZD/AUD = 0.95, the average exchange rate for the reporting period was around 0.92, around 0.88 for the prior HY period.

Thus a move of around 4.5% for the pending HY15 report, compared with the dramatic 12.5% move we saw at FY14 reporting.

ATM have told us that the first four months of the HY15 reporting period saw Australian sales growth of 38% in AUD terms.

http://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-conte...esentation.pdf

Extrapolating that growth rate and applying the exchange rate movement, provides for estimated HY15 revenues of around NZD$71M (+32%).

Perhaps we may also see a little contribution from introductory fresh milk sales into china and maybe, perhaps we all hope, an uptick in UK growth too.

It’s all coarse I know, but I don’t think the pending HY will really look too shabby actually ?

[kizame]

Personally I am neutral and believe it could go either way. However, the amount if resistance sellers are putting up along with no more news ahead leads me to believe a test of 50 is more likely than a jog above 60. Just my two cents quickly!

Yep true,but look at the support at 55-56,volume is way down and narrow bollingers,I actually thought it was breaking out yesterday but dropped 2c at the last minute.My personal opinion is that it has bottomed and is bouncing along the bottom,yesterdays drop was on tiny volume,and the volume for the last month or so hasn't been high.
Time will tell whether I'm right or wrong.