ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[see weed]

What's this I see? A buying opportunity based on other people's fear?

Robbo enters...

I entered about an hour before the news. Typical me push buy button too soon. Never mind, might join you and buy more on any dips.

[Tsuba]

http://www.examiner.com/article/the-...oods-expo-west

[Harrie]

"Most investors wouldn't even know if those criteria were being met. Whereas just a couple of good news stories in the Aussie media about sales in the UK, US, China or Australia or a new scientific finding could be enough to lift the SP. And once the Aussie listing goes into effect, I would have thought the market there might develop a self-generating dynamic that's not reliant on such specific analytical details but driven more by broader investor/broker perceptions and sentiment. Not to mention perhaps some news from the company itself."

Thanks for your reply NT but we are talking about what will make the SP rise.
There will not be any good news stories unless there is good news, and that will come about if some if not all the criteria I listed come about. The more that come about the higher the SP will go.
The fact that most investors wouldn't know about whether the criteria was being met is irrelevant really, they will if and when it happens

[MAC]

Harrie, short term the market will swing about all over the place, in this case it’s due predominantly to the AMP overhang and their new portfolio policy requiring them to just sell at any price.

Over the long term the SP will always gravitate back toward valuation, it requires no other reason to do so.

Do remember Ben Graham;

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine”

Analyst price targets are very much to the up side, valuations will be higher than those again. As I understand Craig’s recently increased their price target to 92c. First NZ have recently offered a spot valuation of up to $1.24.

AMP will be working in the background with their broker right now, the Australian funds and insto’s will be running their valuation models right now, and the overhang should dissipate concurrently with the listing.

It is an IPO in any other name with AMP very probably about to release up to 20M shares onto the ASX.

Watch what happens to a very tightly held, presently very undervalued, and low liquidity stock when such an overhang ceases, and there are suddenly not one but two markets to facilitate a move.

Not to mention enthusiastic Australian retail investors buying shares in their favourite product.

Patience is a virtue, just relax, sit back, pour yourself a nice glass of a2, and watch.

[ratkin]

Over the long term the SP will always gravitate back toward valuation, it requires no other reason to do so.

Not an easy stock to value on fundamentals

[MAC]

Yep, agree with that Ratkin, even Craig's told us such also last year when they first initiated coverage at 90c.

Growth companies are harder to value than cyclical's generally though are they not. It is difficult too with ATM having so many new products in so many new markets.

Management though have offered a long term numerical goal ($230M FY16 revenues) to focus the investment and marketing machine that ATM has become.

They tell us they are on track, and despite an adjustment for long run exchange rates, three years into the four year strategic plan their revenue growth curve is on track too.

When I value that FY16 goal as being achievable, I've no problem establishing a relatively conservative valuation of FY15 $1.10.

Although at the end of the day it is just another growth company, sensitivity analysis is important too for that reason alone.

[bull....]

the market is saying it does not agree with these broker or analyst valuations - anyway at this rate we may be hitting under 50c by eom

[NT001]

...There will not be any good news stories unless there is good news, and that will come about if some if not all the criteria I listed come about. The more that come about the higher the SP will go.

The point I was making Harrie was that there can be things other than the specific six items on your list that could give the SP a boost. Such as improved sales/profits in Australia. Or a favourable recommendation by Aussie brokers/analysts, which could be based on prospects rather than actual achievements.

I agree that "good news" is important, but not that it has to involve the six specific items on your list. I note you have now softened that assertion a bit.

Not looking for a big dispute here, but I think that once the dual listing takes place, the SP will be dictated largely in the Australian market, and will be determined not so much by precise statistical measures of current company performance as by broader consumer and investor perceptions of the company's future. And investors won't wait a year or two to see whether the six targets on your list are achieved. They'll respond to shorter term news and commentary. [/QUOTE]

[tomblu]

Can anybody tell me the a date for ASX listing ?

[MAC]

Can anybody tell me the a date for ASX listing ?

I don't think a2mc or Goldman Sachs have yet advised an exact date, perhaps they are awaiting a 'good to go' signal from AMP. It should appear here when they are all ready to go.

http://www.asx.com.au/prices/upcoming.htm